{"id":1991,"date":"2024-07-18T11:48:54","date_gmt":"2024-07-18T11:48:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/?page_id=1991"},"modified":"2026-04-27T10:13:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T10:13:10","slug":"news","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/?page_id=1991","title":{"rendered":"News"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Latest Market Trading News<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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27th April 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Global markets ready for testing<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The three pillars of geopolitics, central banks, and tech profits will put global markets to the test this week. Stalled US-Iran discussions are impeding flows through the Strait of Hormuz and driving up oil prices, which is prompting increased fears about inflation and stagflation risk. The Middle East crisis continues to be the primary macro driver.<\/p>

The second important axis is rates. The Fed is generally anticipated to remain stable, but messaging is crucial: Treasury rates are rising in reaction to inflation persistence and energy shocks, which lessen the likelihood of short-term reduction. Similar restrictions on central banks around the world (ECB, BoE, and BoJ) support a “higher-for-longer” policy.<\/p>

Growth signals are still brittle. PMIs indicate a subtrend expansion with growing stagflation risks, while US manufacturing is weak and German mood remains low.<\/p>

Earnings, particularly in AI-driven technology, are the final micro-level pillar that supports stocks.<\/p>

Long energy\/commodities bias, cautious stocks, a high volatility regime, and tactical USD\/yield sensitivity are the positioning takeaways.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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7th April 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Stress continues to dent risk appetite<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Concerns over wider ramifications for equities indices are being raised as stress is starting to appear in a number of areas of the world’s markets.<\/p>

Blue Owl Capital’s stock, which is frequently used as a gauge for the $1.8 trillion private credit sector, recently hit a record low after the company restricted withdrawals from two of its funds due to an increase in withdrawal requests. The action has heightened concerns about private credit’s liquidity risks, especially in light of the industry’s exposure to susceptible tech firms that could be disrupted by artificial intelligence.<\/p>

Additionally, markets have experienced increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions associated with the intensifying war between the United States and Iran. Risk sentiment has been impacted by rising oil prices and the anxiety around a possible military escalation.<\/p>

Major benchmarks have already shown the outcome. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 both fell by almost 5% in March, while bond markets also saw a dip as investors lowered their expectations that the Federal Reserve would slash interest rates.<\/p>

The pressure on global equity indexes may worsen in the coming months if private credit stress increases or geopolitical risks worsen.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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RISK OFF Atmosphere<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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26th March 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The start of the week has seen a distinct risk-off atmosphere in the financial markets, but with an odd configuration. Gold and silver are continuing their decline, while stocks are generally down. Concurrently, the rates on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising, indicating that investors are selling government bonds instead of finding refuge in them.<\/p>

The oil shock associated with rising tensions in the Middle East, which has driven crude prices considerably higher and rekindled concerns about global inflation, is one of the main forces motivating these actions. Bond yields are rising and the US currency is gaining as a result of markets being forced to reprice interest-rate expectations due to rising energy prices. Because rising real yields make non-yielding assets like gold and silver less appealing, precious metals are under pressure in this climate.<\/p>

Since investors frequently liquidate attractive holdings to cover losses elsewhere during times of market stress, a portion of the decline in metals may also be due to liquidity-driven selling.<\/p>

Looking forward, a number of significant macroeconomic developments, such as flash PMI data, U.S. productivity statistics, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, U.K. inflation data, and the University of Michigan consumer mood survey, might influence market sentiment this week.<\/p>

The trajectory of U.S. rates is expected to continue to be the primary driver of global markets in the days ahead, with inflation and energy once again at the heart of the story.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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19th March 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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FOMC Meeting<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Financial markets broadly anticipated the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%\u20133.75% during its March meeting.<\/p>

The Federal Reserve noted in its announcement that although inflation has decreased from its high, there is still uneven progress toward the 2% target. Policymakers stressed that future decisions will still rely on new information and that economic uncertainty is still high.<\/p>

Jerome Powell was circumspect throughout the press conference. He reaffirmed that recent changes in energy costs and international tensions may make the disinflation process more difficult and that inflation, especially in the services sector, is still sticky.<\/p>

The Fed is not rushing into rate decreases, which was a clear message for markets. Powell emphasized that before loosening policy, officials want more assurance that inflation is steadily approaching the objective. Because of this, expectations for short-term cutbacks might stay low, supporting the idea that U.S. monetary policy should be “higher for longer.”<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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9th March 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Oil surges<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The largest bond market in the world is under pressure as rising oil prices send shockwaves across the world’s financial markets.<\/p>

Crude prices have drastically increased, rekindling concerns about inflation as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and threats around the Strait of Hormuz deepen. Oil is a vital component of the world economy, and when energy costs rise, so do the expenses of industry, transportation, and food.<\/p>

The bond market has already responded. Investor predictions that inflation would stay high and that the Federal Reserve might have less leeway to lower interest rates caused the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury to rise to about 4.1%.<\/p>

Because the U.S. Treasury market is the foundation of the global financial system, rising yields are important. Increased borrowing rates have an impact on government finance, corporate debt, and mortgages.<\/p>

Equities, credit markets, and highly leveraged industries may become more susceptible to another wave of financial stress if energy costs keep rising and inflation pressures intensify.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The Fear Trade<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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4th March 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Financial markets have started to reflect growing global concerns. Equity futures have significantly declined and the US 10-year The dollar is strengthening, Treasury yields are rising, and oil prices are skyrocketing, with WTI trading close to $76 and Brent getting close to $83. This activity is not only indicative of a “risk-off” response. Rather, it seems that investors may be also accounting for the possibility of an inflation shock brought on by war.<\/p>

The effects might go well beyond the financial markets if the dispute continues. Energy prices, transportation expenses, supply chains, and business profits could all probably be affected by the shock, which would eventually lead to increased inflation and pressure on household purchasing power.<\/p>

In order to preserve liquidity and stabilize bond markets, central banks and fiscal authorities may need to step in. However, such actions would probably entail additional debt growth and financial assistance. These measures run the danger of increasing inflationary pressures on the actual economy, even though they might assist avoid chaotic market situations.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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23rd February 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Light Opening Declines<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Monday saw a decline in European stocks as risk appetite was affected by new uncertainty around U.S. trade penalties. Under pressure from an uncertain policy environment, the FTSE 100 nudged down 0.1%, the CAC 40 lost 0.2%, and the DAX plummeted 0.6% at the opening. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the emergency law did not permit the majority of last year’s tariffs, which caused markets to spike higher late Friday. But in response, Donald Trump announced a worldwide tax over the weekend that would be in effect for up to five months while the government looks for a more long-term legal solution. The tax would initially be 10% and subsequently 15%. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, cautioned that commerce and investment are disrupted by the continuously changing “rules of the road.”<\/p>

Europe’s STOXX 600 recently reached a new high, bolstered by strong earnings and strengthening data, despite Monday’s decline. The PMI data for the Eurozone also showed a positive surprise, with manufacturing once again reaching expansion territory. Nvidia’s results on Wednesday are the main event on the corporate calendar, but Europe has a busy earnings week. Ahead of a possible fresh round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran in Geneva, oil prices also fell, with Brent trading close to $70.39 and WTI at $65.55.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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16th February 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Expect risk-on\/risk-off fluctuations throughout this choppy, holiday-shaped week.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A number of markets, including those in the United States, Canada, and several regions of Asia, are closed on Monday, which results in reduced liquidity and often “erratic” price movement in commodities and foreign exchange.<\/p>

– On Tuesday, the 17th, momentum is bolstered by early U.S. activity readings (Empire\/NAHB), Canada’s CPI, and UK labor statistics. On surprises, the GBP and CAD might move sharply.<\/p>

– A significant U.S. “macro + Fed” block (housing\/industry, FOMC minutes) and UK inflation are due on Wednesday, the 18th. Pay attention to the USD and rates’ response (2Y\/10Y). Thursday 19: Housing and trade statistics between the US and Canada\u2014helpful in fine-tuning the growth picture.<\/p>

– Flash PMIs (U.S., Europe, and Japan), U.S. GDP (Q4), and, most importantly, Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) are the big events on Friday, the 20th. There will probably be volatility in gold and stocks.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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2nd February 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Silver & Gold<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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After last week\u2019s rally, gold and silver abruptly fell off. Gold, which had touched a record around $5,595 an ounce on Thursday, dropped back toward $4,700, marking one of the strongest pullbacks in decades. Double-digit intraday drops in silver caused margin calls and forced liquidation, making the impact even more severe.<\/p>

The combination is well-known: higher rates, a stronger currency, and profit-taking on a crowded market, all of which have an adverse effect for non-yielding assets. Higher margin requirements on some metals contracts and predictions of a more hawkish Federal Reserve following Kevin Warsh’s nomination as chair contributed to the shock.<\/p>

In summary, a quick leverage flush. Volatility could continue to be quite high in the short term; in the medium term, this appears to be more of a technical correction than a long-term trend reversal.<\/p>

GOLD H4 chart<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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29th January 2026<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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FED decision on rates<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Federal Reserve paused three straight rate reduction on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, and maintained its benchmark rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The FOMC stated in its statement that the economy is still growing at a “solid pace,” that job growth is still moderate, and that the unemployment rate is beginning to stabilize. But inflation is still “somewhat elevated,” which encourages caution.<\/p>

While maintaining the possibility of revisions in the event of unexpected new information, Jerome Powell stressed that the decision represented widespread agreement. In order to convey a less nervous tone, the Fed also eliminated any mention of increased employment risks.<\/p>

As investors now focus on labor-market and inflation data ahead of the next meeting, markets, which had mostly priced in the hold, just slightly responded.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The Santa Claus Rally<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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15th Dec 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The strength of the stock market that was frequently observed during the final five trading sessions of December and the first two of January is known as the “Santa Claus rally.” Over that period, the S&P 500 has historically been up 79% of the time, with an average gain of nearly +1.3%.<\/div>
Will it take place in 2025? Likely, but not assured. Following the Fed’s rate cut on December 10, the environment is somewhat “risk-on,” with key indices remaining close to their highs. The catch is that there are a lot of US catalysts this week (December 15\u201319), and because of recent data interruptions, certain releases might be louder than normal.<\/div>
\u00a0<\/div>
\u00a0Key risks and opportunities sit in the macro calendar: the delayed jobs report\/NFP (Tuesday 16)<\/strong>, Retail Sales (Tuesday 16, rescheduled)<\/strong>, and CPI (Thursday 18)<\/strong>. An upside CPI surprise can kill the rally fast; a \u201csweet spot\u201d of cooling inflation + slowing (but not collapsing) employment<\/strong> tends to support it. As for Core PCE<\/strong>, it\u2019s not<\/strong> on the calendar this week (next release still to be rescheduled).\u00a0<\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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2nd Oct 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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US Shutdown : Market uncertainty begins<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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US Shutdown : Market uncertainty begins<\/p>

The shutdown of the US government is now a reality. Beyond politics, the Labor Department issues a pause\u2014just when the economy is cooling down\u2014the true market risk is a data blackout.<\/p>

Background macro: Consumer confidence dropped to 94.2 from the predicted 96. At 3.2%, the hiring rate dropped to its lowest level since June 2024. There are somewhat more jobless people than available positions for a second month.<\/p>

Market analysis:<\/p>

Equities: Vulnerable, particularly those with significant multiple growth.<\/p>

Treasuries: Long yields may decline due to flight to quality.<\/p>

Dollar: Mixed (political noise against risk-off support).<\/p>

Gold: Gains from reduced real rates and uncertainty.<\/p>

How it could play out :
– Brief shutdown (\u22642 weeks): As data resumes, there is a rise in volatility followed by a relief bounce.
– Layoffs plus prolonged shutdown(>2\u20133 weeks): Deeper decline, broader credit spreads, EPS downgrades, and higher claims.<\/p>

Markets and investors fear uncertainty more than actual bad news, expect increased market volatility. US Indices have already began to breath, paring some of the recent gains.
Unmatched spreads.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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11th Sep 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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CPI Boss Fight: Will the Fed Swing 25 or 50?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market is fighting for control when the August CPI is released on Thursday. The two things that seem exciting about a Fed cut next Wednesday are the amount and the rhetoric. The Fed may still cut 25 basis points if the CPI runs hot, particularly in core services (shelter, transportation, medical; ex-energy services), but it will be more tough about what comes next. However, a cold print would intensify rumors of a 50 bps move.<\/p>

Core: 3.1% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), headline 2.9% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), according to consensus. Composition is the trapdoor. From February to May, core services averaged 0.2% m\/m (~2.4% annualized); a 0.3% increase in August would raise the 3-month annualized pace to over 3.6%, which would feed concerns about “sticky inflation.” Indeed, companies are absorbing a portion of the tariff charge, lowering the prices of some commodities, and the PPI was unexpectedly lower. Wage pressure, however, is found in services inflation, which is also where the CPI index has significant weight.<\/p>

Because of this, stocks feel both justified and jittery at record highs. Bulls claim that a weaker PPI combined with worsening labor data means that easing is likely. Bears counter: reducing sticky services could lead to stagflation. A hotter core is likely to rocket front-end yields, knock richly priced growth, and give the dollar a knee-jerk bounce (which some strategists would fade on labor concerns). Rate-sensitives and long duration are the pivot.<\/p>

While gold hovers around records on cut hopes and oil slid as U.S. inventories built\u2014an economic cool-breeze tale that markets prefer to hear before CPI\u2014futures are green entering the print, aided by AI tailwinds (Oracle just staged a historic pop). As inflation turns out to be a little firmer than anticipated, the European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to hold, with both hawks and doves bolstering their cases but likely providing tight guidance.<\/p>

Trader’s perspective (not advice): \u2022 Hot core (\u22650.3\u20130.4% m\/m): Front-end yields \u2191; 2025 cut route reduced; gold softens; risk-off wobble.
\u2022 Cool core (\u22640.2% m\/m): higher yields, risk-on, bigger-cut buzz, gold steady\/up, and dollar easing.
\u2022 Mixed: The Fed’s statement becomes the market’s metronome; composition comes before the headline.<\/p>

In summary, the mix is more important than the level. Even if the initial cut comes on time next week, the glide path to easier policy becomes more difficult if that engine picks up speed again. Keep an eye on key services.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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27th August 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Wall Street is mesmerized by Nvidia, yet risks lurk in the background.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market’s fixation on one firm is overshadowing much larger threats that are simmering beneath the surface as Wall Street waits for Nvidia’s earnings.<\/p>

Nvidia is now more than just a stock to investors; it’s a gauge of the mood of the market. The chipmaker is now carrying the burden of an entire rally after reaching previously unheard-of heights on the artificial intelligence boom. Analysts and traders alike are keeping an eye on Nvidia to see if it can produce strong margins, rapid revenue growth, and evidence that the demand for AI-powered processors is still unquenchable on a global scale.<\/p>

The stakes are high: a beat might rekindle the exuberant momentum that has kept Wall Street afloat for months, while a failure on earnings or guidance could send shockwaves through equities. To put it briefly, Nvidia controls the market’s sentiment in addition to releasing financial data.<\/p>

However, a political tempest is brewing in Washington as Wall Street is enthralled by a single ticker sign. The independence of the U.S. central bank is being called into question by former President Donald Trump’s attempt to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Although the markets haven’t moved much, undermining the Fed could have significant effects on long-term interest rates, inflation, and the dollar.<\/p>

Main Street, meanwhile, is raising its own warnings. With more Americans reporting that finding a job is becoming more difficult and inflation forecasts gradually rising, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell in August. The forecast for the upcoming six months dropped to its lowest point in years, indicating that people are becoming increasingly concerned about the direction of the economy.<\/p>

Nvidia’s story may have enthralled Wall Street, but investors who overlook the political and economic undertones run the danger of being caught off guard. Sometimes, the shadows\u2014rather than the spotlight\u2014present the true threat.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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30 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Important Economic Events to Keep an Eye on This Week for Active Investors<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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There are a number of important macroeconomic events this week that might have a big impact on market sentiment and policy expectations. It will be essential for active investors to stay informed.<\/p>

Germany’s preliminary June CPI data, a crucial determinant of the ECB’s inflation outlook, is released on Monday. Additionally, the UK will release its Q1 national accounts, which will include capital flows from the banking sector and data on corporate investments.
China, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States will all release manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday. Given that growth forecasts are still shaky, these indicators will provide important information about the state of the global industrial economy.<\/p>

South Korea’s inflation figures and Eurozone unemployment data will be the main topics of discussion on Wednesday. A number of mid-sized businesses in the luxury and retail industries in Europe will release their earnings, giving an indication of consumer demand following the second quarter.<\/p>

Perhaps the most significant day of the week is Thursday. The focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls report (NFP). Expectations for the Fed’s next actions, and consequently the US currency and Treasury yields, could be directly impacted by any shocks in job creation, wage growth, or unemployment. Investors will also look for clues about upcoming rate decisions in the minutes of the ECB’s most recent meeting. Furthermore, considering the prominence of the service sector in developed economies, global services PMI numbers are due.<\/p>

Last but not least, Friday will be calmer because of the US Independence Day vacation, which usually lowers liquidity in international markets and could increase volatility elsewhere. However, further information about the state of the European economy will be provided by Germany’s industrial orders as well as EU housing and PPI data.<\/p>

In summary, traders are facing a high-stakes week as central bank narratives, employment, and inflation all play a role.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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23 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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As tensions in the Middle East worsen, oil prices rise, and markets are on edge.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran, which caused a dramatic increase in oil prices and heightened concerns about a bigger geopolitical crisis, global markets are on high alert. Oil futures have already jumped above $100, and some analysts have warned that prices might reach $130 or higher per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.<\/p>

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes, handling around 20% of the world’s oil traffic. Any disturbance would cause shockwaves in the energy markets, raise the price of gasoline globally, and further strain already precarious global supply systems.<\/p>

The stock markets are responding cautiously. Gold continues to be a reliable conventional safe haven during times of international unrest, while stock indices are declining as investors avoid risk. There are indications of technical weakness in the SP500, which could pave the way for another adjustment. In the meantime, institutional purchasing is fueling a spectacular bullish breakthrough in the oil markets. Although gold and bitcoin are still consolidating, they may rise quickly if tensions keep rising.<\/p>

Additionally, the dispute poses a threat of expanding beyond the current U.S.-Iran conflict. Potential cyberattacks, sabotage, and economic reprisal are causes for increasing anxiety. Global powers like China and Russia may try to safeguard their interests, while regional players like Israel, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are keeping a careful eye on things. The deputy director of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, made a bold statement after the U.S. strikes, saying that “several countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.” Russia has sent a strong message to Washington by formally denouncing the assaults as a flagrant breach of international law and pledging its support for Iran.<\/p>

Markets might collapse rapidly if Iran turns from threats to action. Investors and traders should prepare for high volatility.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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19 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Regional Conflict Between Israel and Iran Could Upend World Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Israeli-Iranian confrontation is much more than a regional geopolitical quarrel. If the situation worsens, a complicated network of economic concerns might jeopardize the stability of the world economy.<\/p>

Nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny passageway at the center of this threat. Even a little interruption may cause oil prices to rise sharply, possibly pushing crude well above $120 or even $150 per barrel. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, central banks are already having difficulty stabilizing prices, and this energy shock would swiftly translate into a fresh inflationary surge.<\/p>

Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be faced with a difficult choice in such a situation: either maintain high interest rates to fight inflation and run the risk of a catastrophic recession, or restore huge liquidity to the economy at the expense of undermining confidence in fiat currencies.<\/p>

There would probably be a period of intense volatility in the financial markets. Investors would rush into hard assets like gold, silver, commodities, and strategic real estate, while major stock indices might see severe corrections.<\/p>

This kind of crisis, however, has the potential to quicken a current trend: de-dollarization. Yuan or euros are already being used to settle some energy contracts. The U.S. dollar’s long-standing dominance would be called into question by a protracted crisis of confidence, which would have significant repercussions for the global monetary system.<\/p>

The systemic risks are real, but full-scale escalation is still preventable. A regional war can swiftly turn into a worldwide financial shock in the connected world of today.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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5 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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ECB Goes Loose as Global Trade Remains Uncertain<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Accommodative stance – The ECB’s eighth consecutive interest rate cut, down to 2%, signals an aggressive push to boost the bloc\u2019s economy amid lingering fallout from Trump’s trade war. With inflation now below the ECB\u2019s 2% target and core component showing signs of softening, the central bank is acting to ensure monetary conditions remain supportive. The cut had been anticipated by markets, but it underscores a broader shift toward policy easing as the ECB contends with external pressures, particularly from deteriorating global trade conditions and slower growth. Investors responded to the downward revision for 2026 growth with modest optimism and confidence that the ECB will remain accommodative. Expectations are now forming around a potential pause in July, and markets are likely to remain sensitive to future data releases, particularly if inflation pressures unexpectedly resurface or Trump\u2019s trade rhetoric escalates further.<\/span><\/p>

Jobs catalyst – U.S. stock indices edge higher as investors await the key non-farm payrolls report, in order to assess how Donald Trump’s trade policies are impacting the job market and the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate outlook. While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady this month, markets are pricing in at least two cuts by year-end. Despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, preferring to wait for more economic clarity amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have taken effect, with the threat of broader levies in July. Investors are now closely monitoring trade talks, particularly a potential call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.<\/p>

Supply expansion – Oil prices declined amid growing signs that Saudi Arabia is pushing for another increase in output, reinforcing market concerns over a potential supply glut in the second half of the year. The proposed increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day underscores a strategic shift toward defending market share rather than prioritising price stability. This comes as the kingdom aims to capitalise on seasonal peak demand during summer months. However, such a move also heightens risks of oversupply, especially with inventories already showing signs of building and global demand forecasts remaining vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties. A more aggressive supply expansion may exacerbate downward pressure on prices. Compounding the bearish sentiment, Saudi Aramco\u2019s price cut to Asia, though smaller than anticipated, signals weakening demand in key import markets.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fiscal Strains Boost Bitcoin At Expense of Commodities<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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New high – Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high above $111,000 on Thursday, extending its 2025 bull run even as U.S. equity markets pulled back. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to defy broader risk-off sentiment, driven by accelerating institutional inflows and growing regulatory clarity. Momentum has also been bolstered by progress on the regulatory front. The GENIUS Act \u2013 a bill designed to provide a framework for stablecoin regulation \u2013 cleared a key procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate this week. Market participants and crypto advocates view it as a positive step toward removing uncertainty in the digital asset space. With regulatory tailwinds, strong inflows, and sustained institutional confidence, bitcoin’s rise is increasingly being seen not just as speculative mania, but as a maturing asset class solidifying its role in the financial system.<\/p>

Output hike – Oil prices fell, pressured by expectations of increased output from major producers and rising concerns about global demand amid U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The sell-off was triggered by reports from Bloomberg that OPEC+ is considering a third consecutive production hike, with one proposal involving a July increase of 411,000 barrels per day \u2013 triple the group’s previously planned rise. The potential supply boost comes as oil markets already grapple with subdued demand signals, amplifying downside risks. In parallel, investors are growing uneasy over mounting U.S. debt. A tax-cut and spending bill through Congress have added to fears about fiscal sustainability, shaking broader market confidence. All eyes now turn to OPEC+\u2019s June 1 meeting for clarity on the cartel\u2019s next move.<\/p>

Critical juncture – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax-and-spending bill by a single vote, enacting much of Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda while intensifying fears over the nation\u2019s ballooning debt. The legislation is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. Markets reacted with mixed signals. U.S. stock futures edged higher after the bill\u2019s passage, but Treasury yields climbed, reflecting investor anxiety about government borrowing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faced fresh selling pressure as global confidence in American fiscal discipline continues to erode, aggravated by Trump\u2019s unpredictable tariff policy and mounting international skepticism toward the stability of U.S. assets. As political divisions deepen and long-term fiscal reform remains elusive, the market sees the U.S. finding itself at a critical juncture.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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15 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Uncertainty Reigns as Geopolitical Talks Unfold<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed optimism – Bitcoin traded higher helped by renewed institutional flows back into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The rebound in ETF activity came as inflation worries eased and trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of de-escalation. Lower-than-expected CPI helped bolster risk appetite and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates later this year. Despite the improved backdrop, market uncertainty, especially over global trade dynamics, continues to cap gains. Traders are expected to watch Friday\u2019s producer price data and Fed commentary closely for further cues.<\/p>

Fragile peace – Ukraine and Russia may hold long-awaited talks in Turkey today, but uncertainty shrouds the summit amid conflicting signals and a lack of high-level participation. Despite calling for the talks himself, Russian President Putin will not be attending. Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he will make a final decision on whether to attend after meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. US President Trump, who had signalled openness to adjusting his Middle East visit to join the summit, will also be absent. With global pressure mounting, both US and European leaders have warned that Moscow faces fresh sanctions if it fails to engage seriously and agree to a ceasefire.<\/span><\/p>

Supply concern – Oil prices fell amid rising expectations of a US-Iran nuclear agreement that could lead to sanctions relief and increased Iranian oil exports. President Trump signalled that a deal was \u201cvery close,\u201d with Tehran having \u201csort of\u201d agreed to the terms. An Iranian official also indicated willingness to proceed in exchange for sanctions relief, following four rounds of talks in Oman. Despite this diplomatic progress, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions targeting Iran\u2019s missile production and oil export networks, underscoring the fragile nature of the ongoing negotiations. Market sentiment was further pressured by a surprise rise in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a build of 3.5 million barrels last week, contrary to analyst expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw, fuelling concerns of oversupply.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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08 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Art of Deal Strikes Again<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Suspense deal – Gold prices slipped as optimism over a potential US-UK trade deal weighed on safe-haven demand. The move followed Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent agreement, with a press briefing scheduled for 2 p.m. GMT. The prospect of easing trade tensions has led investors to reduce gold exposure, favoring risk assets instead. Recent gains in gold, which recently hit record highs above $3,500\/oz, have largely been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive tariff rhetoric. However, the appetite for the metal appears to be softening as signs of diplomatic progress emerge. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar added further pressure, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Market sentiment remains cautious, though. While investor interest in gold remains historically elevated, demand from the jewellery sector has faltered, limiting upward momentum. Looking ahead, traders will watch for confirmation of the US-UK deal and any developments in US-China negotiations. If diplomacy gains traction, gold may trend lower in the near term, while a breakdown could trigger another spike in safe-haven flows.<\/p>

Timid recovery – Oil prices rebounded following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a forthcoming trade deal\u2014widely expected to be with the UK\u2014boosting market sentiment amid lingering concerns over global demand. The move offers a political win for Trump ahead of crucial US-China trade talks and has helped lift crude off recent lows sparked by tariffs and OPEC+ supply adjustments. While oil has faced downward pressure in recent weeks due to fears of a global slowdown and increased output from OPEC+ members, the prospect of a new trade agreement and falling US crude inventories is offering some near-term support with stockpiles dropping by 2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, partially offsetting Tuesday\u2019s bearish API report showing a 4.49 million barrel build.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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01 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Makes Return<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk on – Gold prices continued their decline midweek as investors scaled back safe-haven exposure amid renewed signs of US-China trade engagement. The pullback marks gold\u2019s third straight session of losses, driven by optimism that fresh talks could ease tariff tensions. Traders will be watching for confirmation of any formal dialogue between Washington and Beijing before the weekend. Furthermore, sentiment has been lifted by Trump’s executive orders easing auto tariff pressure and remarks pointing to possible deals with India, South Korea, and Japan. Looking ahead, with geopolitical risk premia unwinding and trade dialogue showing signs of progress, the precious metal may face further downside pressure near term. However, any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the market mood.<\/p>

Tech support – Stronger-than-expected Q1 results from Microsoft and Meta lifted sentiment across the tech sector, offsetting concerns about a potential advertising slowdown linked to tariff uncertainty. Microsoft delivered robust earnings, with EPS of $3.46 on $70B in revenue, surpassing forecasts. Notably, Azure revenue rose on the back of AI demand, slightly above expectations. Commercial cloud revenue saw continued enterprise demand despite macro headwinds. Meta also outperformed, posting EPS of $6.43 and $42.3B in revenue, well above estimates. Guidance for Q2 revenue came in strong at $42.5B\u2013$45.5B, despite management acknowledging ongoing tariff-driven ad market concerns. The dual beats and solid outlooks from two Magnificent 7 heavyweights provided a tailwind for the Nasdaq index.<\/p>

New deal – The newly signed US-Ukraine agreement granting Washington a share of profits from Ukraine’s future mineral and energy sales reflects a shift toward longer-term strategic and economic cooperation. While not a formal security guarantee, the deal gives the US tangible stakes in Ukraine\u2019s post-war recovery and resource access, helping to justify continued US support amid political debates over aid. The deal may bolster sentiment in energy and mining equities tied to US interests, particularly those with exposure to lithium, rare earths, or natural gas. However, uncertainty around control of resource-rich territories and absence of binding security commitments could temper investor enthusiasm in the near term.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Central Banks Go Dovish Over Clouded Economic Outlook<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Grim outlook – Markets remain nervous as the U.S. central bank struck a cautious note about the growth outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is caught between a rock and a hard place as tariffs are likely to stoke inflation. Speaking publicly for the first time since President Trump paused parts of his sweeping tariff plan, the Fed boss signalled a wait-and-see approach to interest rates, saying the Fed needs more clarity on the economy\u2019s trajectory. However, he warned that the ongoing trade turmoil could derail the central bank\u2019s inflation and employment goals. The uncertainty has bruised dollar-denominated assets across the board with the greenback slumping to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. U.S. stocks and bonds also have seen sharp outflows in recent weeks.<\/p>

Cloudy sky – The euro held steady as the ECB slashed interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its key deposit rate down to 2.25% as trade tensions rattle the eurozone\u2019s economic outlook. The move, widely expected by markets, follows growing uncertainty tied to U.S.-led tariff hikes that have roiled global commerce. In a stark policy statement, the central bank flagged “rising trade tensions” as a key driver of deteriorating growth prospects, with President Christine Lagarde warning of “exceptional uncertainty” ahead. Europe now faces a sharp uptick in U.S. tariffs\u2014climbing from 3% to roughly 13%\u2014creating what Lagarde called a \u201cnegative demand shock.\u201d While many tariffs have been paused, the lingering threat of escalation has cast a shadow over inflation expectations and economic momentum.<\/p>

Mounting pressure – While the week wraps early for commodities ahead of Good Friday, bullish drivers have outweighed bearish signals. Crude prices are set to notch a weekly gain, buoyed by fresh U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms trading Iranian oil. The move adds to mounting pressure on Tehran and raises the prospect of tighter global supply, especially as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions through economic means. The International Energy Agency also added upward momentum by trimming its forecast for global supply growth. In its latest monthly report, the agency cut its forecast for this year by 260,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of just 1.2 million bpd. The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated output from the U.S. and Venezuela, adding to market concerns over tighter supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Trade Policy Keeps Investors on Edge<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tariff Reloaded – Markets staged a dramatic rebound at Thursday\u2019s open after President Donald Trump made a surprise reversal on tariff policy, temporarily slashing new import duties to 10% for most U.S. trade partners over a 90-day period. The sharp pivot marked a stark contrast to his earlier hardline stance and triggered a powerful rally across Wall Street. The S&P 500 soared in its third-biggest one-day gain since World War II, the Dow posted its strongest advance since the COVID crash of March 2020, and the Nasdaq exploded in its second-best session ever. Despite the relief rally, trade tensions remain high. The reciprocal tariffs Trump had long threatened officially came into effect, targeting nearly 90 countries. China was notably excluded from the temporary reprieve, with tariffs on Chinese goods escalating sharply after Beijing announced fresh duties on U.S. imports. The European Union also hit back, approving its first wave of countermeasures in response to the earlier U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs, signalling that the global trade skirmish is far from over.<\/p>

Empire Strikes Back – The escalating showdown has rattled all asset classes, stoking fears of a growth slowdown, rising inflation, and squeezed corporate earnings. Amid the mounting uncertainty, gold has seen a sharp rally, as investors seek safety in traditional havens. China has fired back once again at President Donald Trump\u2019s escalating tariff offensive, announcing a steep increase in duties on U.S. imports. Starting April 10, tariffs on American goods entering China will soar to 84%, up from the previous 34%, according to the latest statement from the Office of the Tariff Commission. The move comes in direct response to Washington\u2019s own overnight hike, which pushed tariffs on Chinese goods past the 100% mark. This tit-for-tat trade war is rapidly deepening, threatening to paralyse commerce between the world\u2019s two largest economies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

OPEC Strains – Oil prices remain fragile even though OPEC’s production slipped in March, just ahead of a planned output increase, as key members faced disruptions and mounting geopolitical pressure. Nigeria scaled back deliveries to domestic refineries, notably the Dangote facility, leading to a decline that offset stronger export volumes. Meanwhile, renewed efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to choke off oil flows from Iran and Venezuela contributed to further production drops from those nations. In total, output from Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each fell by around 50,000 barrels per day. Despite this, Nigeria remains slightly above its OPEC+ production target, with Gabon identified as the bloc\u2019s least compliant member. The latest figures highlight the fragile balance within OPEC+ as it begins to cautiously unwind some of its recent cuts. The full impact of the planned production hike may ultimately hinge on the success of Washington\u2019s push to curtail supplies from Tehran and Caracas.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets in Turmoil Amid Escalating Trade War<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Asian and European markets suffered a major blow as the fallout from President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariff announcements triggered a global sell-off. In Asia, Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index experienced a historic crash, while Taiwan\u2019s TAIEX tumbled to an all-time low in a dramatic market rout. The chaos spilled into Europe, where the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 opened sharply lower and Germany\u2019s DAX endured a full-blown bloodbath at the open. Although European markets have since clawed back some losses, volatility remains high as investors brace for more turbulence amid the escalating trade showdown.<\/span><\/p>

US futures are pointing to a rough start on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 expected to open down, reflecting deepening investor unease. Meanwhile, Brent Crude prices have slumped to their lowest level since April 2021, underscoring growing concerns over global demand. Even cryptocurrencies, often touted as alternatives to traditional finance, have been swept up in the turmoil. In a sell-off as widespread and intense as this, few risk assets are managing to escape the fallout unscathed.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitical and Trade Escalations Fuel Market Jitters<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Military Standoff – The U.S. is stepping up its military presence in the Middle East, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sending in extra warplanes for an ongoing bombing campaign in Yemen. The move adds more fuel to the fire in Washington\u2019s standoff with Iran, as Trump continues to push for nuclear negotiations\u2014using both tariffs and military threats as leverage. Over the weekend, Trump warned Tehran that more strikes (and even more tariffs) could be on the way if talks don\u2019t move forward. Iran, however, isn\u2019t budging. In a firm response via Oman, Tehran made it clear that it won\u2019t negotiate under pressure. With both sides digging in, tensions remain sky-high. Unless some behind-the-scenes diplomacy works its magic, we could be looking at more economic and military maneuvers, which would keep markets\u2014and the energy sector\u2014on edge.<\/p>

Trade Turmoil – Wednesday\u2019s much-anticipated tariff announcement couldn\u2019t come at a trickier time for the markets. Stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride for weeks, thanks to ever-changing trade policy chatter, and investors are still feeling pretty jittery. Unfortunately, it doesn\u2019t look like this latest move will do much to calm nerves. In fact, things might get even messier\u2014China, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly teaming up to hit back at Trump\u2019s tariff push. A coordinated counterstrike from these economic heavyweights could mean an extended trade skirmish, potentially tangling up supply chains and putting a damper on global growth. As traders sift through the details of this two-step tariff plan, all eyes will be on possible exemptions and any hints of a diplomatic breakthrough. And let\u2019s not forget the Fed\u2014already juggling economic curveballs, officials may have yet another headache if rising import costs start stoking inflation concerns.<\/span><\/p>

Oil Balancing – OPEC turned down the oil tap a little in March, trimming production by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it tried to keep supply in check before ramping things up again in May. According to Bloomberg\u2019s latest survey, the group\u2019s total output now stands at 27.43 million bpd, with members being reminded to stick to their quotas. This cut is all part of OPEC\u2019s ongoing effort to keep oil markets steady and prices supported, despite unpredictable demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still set to move forward with its planned production hikes, adding 138,000 bpd in May after a similar bump in April. As usual, traders will be keeping a close eye on OPEC\u2019s next moves, since oil price stability remains a delicate balancing act\u2014especially with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting demand trends in the mix.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Move on After Dovish Fed Decision<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Stay safe – The gold market remains in the upward direction, hovering near recent highs as the Federal Reserve maintains a neutral monetary policy stance\u2014despite raising its inflation outlook and trimming its growth forecast. As widely expected, the Fed held interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. However, policymakers provided little forward guidance, leaving markets guessing about the timing of future rate moves. The updated dot plot projections remained unchanged from December, showing rates ending the year at 3.9%, with further declines to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. While the central bank appears in no rush to cut rates, it is adopting a more measured approach toward its balance sheet\u2014adding another layer of complexity to the market\u2019s outlook.<\/span><\/p>

Stake high – Geopolitical stakes remain high in Ukraine with renewed airstrikes escalating tensions and fueling market uncertainty. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian sites, including hospitals, while suggesting that Putin has effectively dismissed a comprehensive ceasefire. The renewed hostilities come after Putin\u2019s recent conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, in which the Russian leader reportedly conditioned any ceasefire on the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. With no immediate resolution in sight, geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk factor for global markets, potentially triggering further volatility in energy prices, equities, and safe-haven assets.<\/p>

Caution ahead – The US dollar saw little bid after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and reaffirmed its projection for two rate cuts in 2024. While the central bank revised its economic outlook, some analysts interpreted the announcement as dovish, reinforcing expectations for eventual easing. Risk assets bounced back following the Fed\u2019s commitment to rate cuts, with equities gaining traction as investor sentiment improved. However, the greenback faced renewed pressure, reflecting shifting rate expectations. The updated forecasts indicate that policymakers remain cautious, aiming to balance inflation risks with economic stability, leaving markets closely watching the timing of the first rate cut.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Choose Flight to Safety<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Hold still – The British pound remains supported ahead of the Bank of England\u2019s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 20 March, where policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%. The central bank had previously cut rates by 25 basis points in February, but rising geopolitical risks and tightening global financial conditions have reinforced expectations of a pause. The impact of US trade policies, particularly Trump\u2019s tariff measures, has already pushed UK bond yields higher, contributing to a stronger pound. While domestic economic indicators remain mixed, the BoE appears reluctant to continue easing in an environment where external shocks could sustain inflationary pressures. Markets will be watching for any forward guidance that could shape expectations for the BoE\u2019s next policy move, which is likely to influence sterling\u2019s trajectory in the near term.<\/span><\/p>

Hard hit – Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off this week as investors repriced risk in response to growing concerns over US economic stability. Even President Trump\u2019s economic team has acknowledged potential turbulence ahead, a shift that has fuelled risk aversion across asset classes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4%, while the S&P 500 extended its recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite suffered the most significant decline, plunging 4.5%. The tech sector led the decline, with the “Magnificent Seven” stocks driving the sell-off. The pullback reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, compounded by Trump\u2019s aggressive trade policies. The US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations remain unresolved, keeping markets on edge as investors assess potential tariff impacts on corporate earnings and economic growth.<\/p>

New high – Gold prices have staged a strong recovery, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid ongoing market volatility and geopolitical risks. Despite a slight cooling in inflation pressures, the latest US CPI data failed to alleviate broader recession fears. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of 0.3% and down from 0.5% in January. Although gold experienced a sharp decline at the end of February\u2014dropping over $130 to touch $2,833\u2014technical support at key moving averages provided a floor for prices, leading to a swift rebound above $2,900. This resilience suggests that bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants continuing to hedge against economic uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Retreat as Geopolitics Takes Over Monetary Policy<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Rally on hold – Markets are on edge as investors weigh the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on major US trading partners. The new measures\u201425% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a sharp increase in China duties to 20%\u2014went into effect on Tuesday. Canada wasted no time hitting back with its own round of immediate tariffs on US imports, while China responded with a 15% levy on American farm products like chicken and pork, set to take effect on March 10. However, Beijing’s relatively measured response left some analysts speculating that there\u2019s still room for negotiation with Washington. With trade tensions heating up, investors are bracing for potential market turbulence in the days ahead. The S&P 500 has tanked to its November lows just above the 5700 mark. Any major escalation in the trade spat could spark a deeper correction in the coming weeks.<\/span><\/p>

Geopolitical chessboard – Gold prices are taking a breather as traders lock in some profits after a strong recovery earlier this week. The price action is seemingly trying to hold onto its bullish momentum. Fundamental-wise, safe-haven demand continues to underpin gold, fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index this week. Adding to the global economic mix, China\u2019s National People’s Congress kicked off its annual session by reaffirming its 5% growth target for 2025, most likely as a defiant signal to Mr Trump\u2019s aggressive foreign policy. On the eastern front, Trump claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had expressed gratitude for U.S. support and signalled a willingness to sign a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral rights. Mixed statements such as this add yet another layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical chess match.<\/span><\/p>

Swift comeback – The euro flexed its muscles against most major currencies after the European Central Bank\u2019s latest interest rate move. As expected, the central bank trimmed rates by 25 basis points. But what really caught the market\u2019s attention was Christine Lagarde\u2019s tone during the press conference. Rather than signaling a dovish pivot, the ECB president struck a more hawkish note, stressing that future rate cuts would depend on incoming data. That cautious stance gave the euro a solid lift, as traders recalibrated their expectations for her next moves. Adding fuel to the rally, the euro is also buoyed by optimism over Europe’s growth following Germany’s proposal for a massive \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund. The plan is seen as a potential counterweight to global trade tensions, offering a boost to the region\u2019s economic outlook. The bullish news compound the bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar which stumbled across the board, dragged down by mounting concerns over the impact of tariffs on inflation and broader economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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28 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Jitters as Trump Goes Against Rest of the World<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cautious approach – Markets are gaining confidence as investors digest Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings, which reassured them about AI growth despite initial concerns over DeepSeek and weakening demand. While the company\u2019s profit outlook initially sparked some hesitation on Wall Street, Nvidia\u2019s stock rebounded after an early dip. At the same time, traders are closely watching President Trump\u2019s latest tariff threats, which have added to existing economic jitters. On Wednesday, he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union and reinstate paused duties on Canada and Mexico. However, the lack of clear details left markets guessing about the timeline and potential impact. The S&P 500 is trying to squeeze out modest gains the latest session, in an attempt to end its five-day streak of losses.<\/span><\/p>

Bouncing back – The euro-dollar exchange rate has pulled back to its mid-February lows around 1.0400 as the US Dollar remains strong amid a risk-off mood. Still, caution might be warranted as the remarkable strength of the US dollar in recent months has been challenged by a string of underwhelming economic reports\u2014ranging from a dip in consumer confidence to sluggish retail sales and weak consumer sentiment\u2014has shaken markets and fuelled concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors are now weighing whether these signals point to a temporary slowdown or a more persistent challenge ahead. Nevertheless, the greenback could benefit from erratic tariff decisions by Donald Trump against European and Japanese imports, making it the least vulnerable of the majors out there.<\/span><\/p>

Wild ride – Bitcoin\u2019s wild ride in its 6-figure valuation took a sharp turn downward as the digital gold plunged to its lowest level since November, dragging the broader crypto market down with it and erasing nearly half a trillion dollars in value. After soaring past $108,000 last month\u2014coinciding with Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration and his self-proclaimed status as the \u201cBitcoin President\u201d\u2014BTC is struggling to stay above $85,000. The selloff has been partly linked to growing investor frustration over Trump\u2019s unfulfilled promises nearly a month into his term, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. On a more technical level, expiring bitcoin options sitting in crypto exchanges, worth an estimated $3.9 billion, could expire out of the money, as most positions were set at higher price levels, further exacerbating market volatility. The crypto market also took another hit after a massive hack on the Bybit platform, described as the \u201cbiggest digital heist ever.\u201d Hackers managed to steal around $1.5 billion by gaining control of an Ethereum wallet on the Dubai-based exchange. The shock of the breach, combined with Bitcoin\u2019s price collapse, has sent ripples through the industry, intensifying concerns over security vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Unfettered Risk Appetite Keeps Brewing<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Safe bet – Sustained demand for gold keeps the chart trajectory upward as investors weigh monetary policy against geopolitical winds. Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period. This could discourage traders from making new bets, creating a headwind for the non-yielding metal. However, a renewed decline in US Treasury bond yields is keeping dollar bulls on the back foot, providing further support for gold prices. More importantly, the broader fundamentals still favour an upward trend for bullion, keeping the metal\u2019s two-month rally intact. Gold’s bullish momentum is fuelled by concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could spark a global trade war, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.<\/span><\/p>

Tables turned – The S&P 500 is inching up in a timid manner as market participants fret that a peace talk between the US and Russia without Ukraine could signal a dramatic shift in US foreign policy. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Donald Trump reached new heights after the latter took to social media to mock Zelensky, calling him a \u201cdictator without elections.\u201d Zelensky fired back, accusing Trump of falling for Russian disinformation regarding the war in Ukraine. The heated exchange followed a controversial meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war\u2014without Ukraine at the table. After the meeting, Trump suggested Ukraine had initiated the conflict, prompting a swift and sharp rebuttal from Zelensky. The rhetoric highlights the risk of the US pulling the plug on Kyiv\u2019s war effort, alienating its European allies in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Still hodling – Bitcoin continues to defy concerns from the Federal Reserve\u2019s latest meeting minutes, which signalled officials remain hesitant to cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed pointed to trade policies under the Trump administration as a potential obstacle to controlling inflation. Despite this cautious stance, Bitcoin continued its rally, holding steady as investors shrugged off rate uncertainty and focused on the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price tends to move in tandem with interest rate expectations because lower rates mean more liquidity in the market, making speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Added uncertainty from the Ukraine geopolitical twist might have convinced more investors to pour into the digital gold.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ukraine Optimism Offsets Trade Worries<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Inflation still hot – The much-anticipated U.S. inflation figure came out hotter than expected, throwing a wrench into hopes for near-term rate cuts. January\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.9%. The \u201ccore\u201d CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in even stronger at 3.3% versus the anticipated 3.1%\u2014marking the hottest inflation reading in months. These numbers bolster the case for monetary policy hawks who argue the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, prioritising the fight against inflation. However, President Trump took to social media, pushing back and insisting the U.S. needs lower interest rates.\u00a0<\/span>The U.S. dollar index initially spiked on the inflation report but later gave up gains to trade lower. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.65% following the data, keeping limited support to the greenback.<\/span><\/p>

Stabilisation factor – The oil price slump gained momentum as President Donald Trump took his first major step toward brokering an end to Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, just weeks after his inauguration. Trump took to social media to announce that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations immediately, adding that he would be calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to inform him of the conversation. A potential ceasefire could further weigh on oil prices if Trump pushes to roll back sanctions on Russia\u2019s energy sector. On a more fundamental level, the market\u2019s depressed sentiment has been fuelled by rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling that the Fed isn\u2019t rushing to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity and weaken oil demand.<\/span><\/p>

Steady climb – Wall Street reacted to the latest American CPI data with a knee-jerk selloff, but S&P 500 has found support and is still consolidating near its recent highs. A key factor? Reports that President Trump had a “productive” phone call with Russian President Putin about ending the Russia-Ukraine war, offering investors a glimmer of optimism, which would offset concerns with rising global trade tension, notably with the new administration\u2019s reciprocal tariffs. On the corporate side, the fourth-quarter earnings season rolls on. So far, more than 69% of S&P 500 companies have already released their results, and the majority are delivering pleasant surprises\u2014over 75% have topped Wall Street\u2019s forecasts, according to FactSet.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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7 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trade Spat Casts Shadow Over Sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Record high – Gold prices surged to yet another all-time high in this week\u2019s trading, driven by strong safe-haven demand as investors flock to the yellow metal amid rising uncertainty. Market nerves remain on edge as President Trump\u2019s unpredictable and potentially disruptive policy moves keep traders guessing. Meanwhile, China-U.S. trade tensions are heating up, with both nations escalating tariffs and taking further hostile business actions against each other this week. The EU may not be spared either after Trump doubled down on his plan to hike tariffs on the block, adding another layer of uncertainty to global trade dynamics. Experts fret that this \u201celevated trade policy uncertainty\u201d could drag on economic growth in the coming months, primarily by dampening business investment and weakening market confidence. Goldman Sachs has warned that the eurozone economy could suffer a \u201csizable hit to activity\u201d from the rise in trade tensions. With geopolitical and economic uncertainty mounting, gold continues its record-breaking rally, proving once again that when uncertainty reigns, gold shines.<\/p>

Mixed feelings – U.S. stocks have recouped their recent losses as they strive to hold onto this year\u2019s limited gains. While earnings from Alphabet and AMD fell short of expectations, Big Tech found support thanks to a strong rally in Nvidia. Alphabet\u2019s stock took a hit, sliding nearly 7%, after its fourth-quarter cloud revenue came in below estimates. The shortfall raised concerns that the company’s aggressive AI investments may take longer than expected to pay off. However, Nvidia emerged as a winner, climbing more than 5% as investors bet that the chipmaker could benefit from the ongoing AI spending spree. Overall, a retreat of the 10-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since December 2024 further added support to the market\u2019s rebound.<\/span><\/p>

Sluggish demand – Crude oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels of the year as fears of weakening demand rattled investors. The drop comes after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports, while U.S. stockpiles climbed for the second straight week. WTI crude hit its lowest point since December 31, 2024, as tensions between the top two consumers escalated. With China\u2014the world\u2019s largest oil importer\u2014facing economic headwinds, concerns are mounting over a potential slowdown in global energy demand. On Tuesday, China\u2019s State Council Tariff Commission announced a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with a 10% duty on American crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles, set to take effect next week. Meanwhile, fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing fears of weakening demand and adding further pressure to oil markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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31 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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AI Race and Safe Haven in Tandem<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tech correction – US tech stocks stabilised after plunging on Monday due to the sudden rise of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) app DeepSeek. The open source solution sent chipmaker Nvidia into a nosedive, triggering a broader selloff across the market. The turbulence followed DeepSeek\u2019s claim that its AI model was developed at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, prompting investors to rapidly reassess their bets on AI and the ROI on the costly infrastructure, and casting uncertainty over America\u2019s AI dominance. President Donald Trump called the moment \u201ca wake-up call\u201d for the US tech industry while downplaying concerns over the breakthrough, affirming that the US will remain a leading force in AI. For traders following the price action, unless the Nasdaq sinks below its 2-month lows around 20600 the index is merely consolidating near its historic high. The market\u2019s eventual resilience would prove the optimism surrounding AI investments that has fuelled much of the US stock market\u2019s surge over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>

ECB easing – The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its fifth rate cut on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points as it walks a tightrope between rising inflation and sluggish growth. After months of cooling, inflation in the eurozone is heating up again, hitting 2.4% in December – its third straight increase – just as the effects of cheaper energy start to fade. At the same time, the region\u2019s economy is stuck in neutral. Fresh data showed zero growth in the final quarter of 2024, falling short of economists\u2019 modest 0.1% forecast and following a 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. Commenting on the latest move, ECB President Christine Lagarde didn\u2019t sugarcoat the situation, admitting that the euro area economy is \u201cset to remain weak in the near term.\u201d In other words, while inflation is picking up, growth is taking a nap – leaving the ECB with the tricky job of keeping both in check. FX-wise, the single currency is far from being out of the woods as the US Fed stayed put with its interest rates unchanged, broadening the differential between the two economic entities.<\/span><\/p>

Shining again – Gold is back on its feet after dragging its feet for the past three months. The price has surged to a new all-time fuelled by strong safe-haven demand and technical buying. Investor jitters over the new US administration\u2019s trade and foreign policies – especially the potential for fresh tariffs – are keeping the marketplace on edge. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting on Wednesday with a clear signal: interest rates are staying unchanged for the foreseeable future. Policymakers acknowledged that \u201cinflation remains somewhat elevated,\u201d but Chair Jerome Powell downplayed any shift in stance, brushing off the change in wording as mere \u201clanguage clean-up.\u201d Powell steered clear of commenting on how President Trump\u2019s policies might influence the Fed\u2019s decisions. Markets, in turn, took the Fed\u2019s statement and Powell\u2019s press conference in stride, showing little reaction.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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24 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trump 2.0 May Complicate Fed Policy Course<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Technical recovery – The euro\u2019s current rebound is likely to be due to profit-taking after it hit a 26-month low earlier this year. General sentiment remains downbeat as the ECB keeps pushing in the loosening direction while the Fed is taking their feet off the pedal. President Christine Lagarde and other senior officials expressed support for additional rate cuts, potentially weakening the shared currency in the short term. Markets have already priced in another 25bp cut next Thursday, the fifth of the easing cycle, with expectations that interest rates will drop to 2% by year-end. Adding insult to injury would be the looming U.S. tariffs championed by Trump 2.0 elevating the risk of higher inflation in a fragile economy. Despite Lagarde\u2019s reassurance that the central bank is \u201cnot overly concerned\u201d about external factors, the market always finds a way to play in a cynical and pragmatic way and may keep the lid on the exchange rate.<\/p>

Verbal escalation – Gold is surfing on renewed geopolitical tensions following Mr Trump\u2019s inauguration. Stakes in the eastern front have been raised as the new U.S. president looks to boast his \u2018art of the deal\u2019 by settling the war in Ukraine in a swift manner. He delivered on his own social media platform Truth Social this week an ultimatum to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin saying that Russia should strike a deal or face even tougher economic consequences. Warnings of extending sanctions on all Russian exports to the United States and secondary penalties for nations conducting business with Moscow may push the latter to a corner if a deal fails to materialise, exacerbating the divide between the East and the West. The precious metal\u2019s solid run lately in spite of the dollar\u2019s strength signals growing demand for its safe haven status.<\/span><\/p>

Clash of the titans – The U.S. dollar has given back its recent gains as traders await a new catalyst from the central bank\u2019s interest rate decision next week. To spice things up, Powell & Co\u2019s cautious stance puts the Federal Reserve on a potential collision course with the new assertive president. Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs in a significant manner. As far as the market is concerned, the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25-4.5% next week, in the wake of three consecutive cuts since September. However, policymakers have adopted a more conservative approach for the year especially as Mr Trump\u2019s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes, and tighten immigration policies could complicate efforts to lower inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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UK Worries Weigh on Cable<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mini crisis – The pound has plunged to its lowest level in over a year, while UK borrowing costs have reached a 16-year high. The latest bond market sell-off reflects investors\u2019 growing concerns over UK assets and most importantly the contrasting signal between higher gilt yields and a falling currency shows investors\u2019 doubt over the country\u2019s economic outlook and the health of its public finances. The market turmoil has added pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faces increasing scrutiny, made an uncommon move by issuing a public statement for the second consecutive night, emphasising her \u201ciron grip\u201d on public finances. But despite government efforts to stabilise the markets, borrowing costs continue to climb. Addressing an urgent question in the House of Commons, Treasury Minister Darren Jones assured there was “no need for an emergency intervention” in financial markets. However, market participants still have the memory of the mini-budget crisis under the former prime minister Liz Truss in September 2022.<\/p>

Seasonal demand – Brent crude is staging a steady recovery to its 3-month high as the market demand has shifted its focus to colder weather than the last two winters, in both Europe and the United States, which could boost consumption of heating oil. A stronger U.S. dollar and an unexpected rise in U.S. stockpiles have not deterred buyers from shying away, with technical buying-the-dips compounding the seasonal factor. There are high hopes that the recent weak CPI print in China would spur more stimulus to tackle the country\u2019s chronic economic headache. In the meantime, a surge in travel across China ahead of the Lunar New Year has improved demand expectations, adding to rationales that would help the price stabilise in the near term.<\/p>

Bullish consolidation – The December U.S. jobs report was a blowout for the outgoing administration with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The print was a confirmation that would lessen the worry about the impact of high interest rates on the job market. While the market participants await further rejuvenation of the economy under Trump 2.0, the earnings season is kicking off next week with Q4 and full-year results from Wall Street\u2019s big banks. Investors anticipate impressive numbers as trading volumes have significantly exceeded typical fourth-quarter levels across all asset classes, fuelled by a growing participation from retail traders amid a bull run in both stock and cryptocurrency markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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3 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Investors Remain Confident about U.S. Growth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Parity in sight – The market is waiting for fresh catalysts in the first week of 2025 and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls might just give participants enough a reason to stay alert. A strong reading could be the straw that broke the euro\u2019s back as the single currency is inching towards the parity threshold, last seen in November 2022. The market consensus is that Trump\u2019s policies will sustain support for the greenback, as tax reliefs will put upward pressure on inflation and make further interest rate cuts less easy to justify, while tariffs against the eurozone would be seen as rubbing salt in the wound, undermining its growth outlook.\u00a0<\/p>

Steady recovery – Gold is striving for a comeback after it stabilised around its recent low of $2,600. The precious metal gains strength thanks to its safe-haven appeal, as investors turn their attention to President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s upcoming administration, set to begin on January 20. Anticipated policies from Trump, including higher import tariffs and lower taxes, are expected to benefit gold. More specifically, elevated tariffs could spark a global trade war, while reduced taxes may increase inflationary pressures in the United States. Gold often thrives in times of economic uncertainty as a safer asset and performs well during periods of rising inflation, as investors use it to hedge against price increases. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields fall to approximately 4.5%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, enhancing their attractiveness.<\/p>

Hesitant start – Stocks began January with a volatile trading session as investors locked in profits from notable 2024 winners like Apple and Tesla. The much-anticipated \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally, which typically boosts stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, failed to materialize as the market preferred the certainty of gains other than the promise of higher watermarks, leaving the S&P 500 with four straight days of losses into the year\u2019s end\u2014its first such streak since 1966. Still there is high hope that the rally will stay put as pro-growth and inflationary policies in the U.S. may keep fuelling the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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20 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fed Pours Cold Water Before Christmas<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed pressure – The euro is hovering near its 4-week low as traders price in a potential acceleration in the interest rate differential across the Atlantic. The ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place after its U.S. counterpart adopted a hawkish stance in the last meeting. In the meantime, inflation in the eurozone has become steady though not subdued with the November reading coming in below expectations at 2.2%. The market expects the central bank to stay the course on reducing borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate growth. While the Fed might hold back from another increase in January 2025, the ECB is expected to reduce interest rates at every meeting until June 2025, leaving the single currency struggle against other majors.<\/span><\/p>

Bullion dilemma – On the one hand, the prospect of lower global interest rates would make the non-yielding metal more appealing by lowering the cost of opportunity. On the other, a relatively strong U.S. economy and an unusually hawkish Fed might keep Treasury yields high, leaving gold in the shadows. How far the retracement may go would reflect bids on the mighty dollar as its recovery across the board so far has put the precious metal under pressure. The price action is consolidating as liquidity starts to dry out going into Christmas, but it would be too soon to call for a bearish reversal.<\/span><\/p>

Close call – Stock markets saw sharp pullbacks after the Federal Reserve commented on a \u2018closer call\u2019 on its loosening policy. As widely anticipated, the U.S. central bank lowered its key interest rate this Wednesday by 25 basis points, the third consecutive cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022. However, policymakers struck a cautionary note on their next move. Inflation has been holding steadily above target against the backdrop of uncertain economic growth on a global macro level, prompting the Fed to slow down on its monetary easing path, with indications that there probably would be only two small cuts in 2025. The decision has given risk assets such as tech stocks which have been front-running the yield curve a reason to take a breather, sending the S&P and Nasdaq indices off their recent peaks.<\/span><\/p>

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13 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Anticipating Another U.S. Rate Cut<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar recovery – The U.S. dollar is bouncing back across the board as traders reposition ahead of the last Federal Reverse rate decision of the year. The market overwhelmingly anticipates an additional 25-basis-point rate cut in the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. However the persistence of sticky inflation might put the brakes on the pace of future rate cuts, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England might trim their respective rates faster in the face of stalling economies. The prospect of this differential could prove particularly beneficial for the greenback.\u00a0<\/p>

Gold consolidation – Bullion has pulled back from its 3-week high as the market digests a crucial regime change in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad dynasty last weekend left a void in an increasingly turbulent region and exposed Iran, its former ally, prompting traders to ponder major stakeholders\u2019, namely the U.S. and Russia and their proxies\u2019 next move on the geopolitical chessboard. As a result, heightened uncertainty may keep safe haven seekers busy as the new year could reserve additional surprises. In the meantime, news of physical buying by the People\u2019s Bank of China may offer further support.<\/span><\/p>

S&P high watermark – The U.S. index is still holding on to its all-time high as investors bet on a downward trajectory of the interest rates. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October’s 2.6% annual increase, but in line with economists’ forecasts. Participants in the rally have so far shrugged off economists\u2019 view of Trump’s proposed policies\u2014such as imposing high tariffs on imports, cutting corporate taxes, and restricting immigration\u2014as potentially inflationary. The optimism may live on as long as evidence shows a lack of an upside surprise in inflation data.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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06 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Job Report Sends U.S. Dollar into Retreat<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar pullback – The latest U.S. job data showed a rise of the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% in November. The greenback has been pulling back as traders braced for the last nonfarm payrolls of the year. Before the report, the market had priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut on December 18, but that probability has now climbed to 87%. The prevailing sentiment is that Fed officials are already inclined toward a rate cut, and it would take a much stronger report to change their stance. The market now expects 90 basis points of easing next year, up from the previous expectation of 82 basis points, offering fragile support to the dollar in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Oil stabilisation – WTI crude steadied around its 3-month low after the OPEC+ group which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia postponed its planned production increase amid sluggish global demand, notably due to China\u2019s economic struggle and competition from non-member producers like Brazil and Argentina. The recent lows also corresponds to the trough seen in December 2021, indicating the market\u2019s concern about the lingering supply and demand imbalance. Market participants may look to thread the needle with their year\u2019s end positioning as the price walks on thin ice.<\/span><\/p>

Trump effect – Bitcoin’s value soared past the $100,000 mark after Trump announced plans to nominate former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the regulatory body. Atkins is widely regarded as more cryptocurrency friendly than the incumbent Gary Gensler. The president-elect had earlier vowed to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital” and his celebration on social media with messages like “Congratulations Bitcoiners” and “You’re welcome!” would draw more public attention to the digital asset. Traders have started to bag some profits but sentiment supported by the trend remains overwhelmingly positive.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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29 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Final Push as Markets Look to Regain Volatility<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Calm before volatility –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Trading volumes have thinned around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday this week but market lethargy may give place to renewed volatility in a busy data-driven week. Investors are likely to take advantage of the last nonfarm payrolls on Friday and reallocate their books before going into the Christmas holiday season. Until then weak tech earnings and the Nvidia sell-off could continue to be the theme that has been driving major U.S. indices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Oil uncertainty –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Oil prices stabilise as traders look for signals from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on the 1st of December. The market widely expects production cuts from January. However, artificial restraints on supply may not suffice to lift depressed prices in the current environment. Global fundamentals remain uncertain at best as bidders may be reluctant to hold large positions into the new year with American protectionism looming as Trump is scheduled to retake the reins.<\/span><\/p>

Lost shine –\u00a0<\/span>Gold remains under pressure weighed down by the recent recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. Meanwhile physical investments in China, the precious metal’s No.1 consumer country, have tanked amid growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical friction with the West. The price is hovering above the $2600 mark and trying to find support and now the question is whether bullion\u2019s safe haven status would bring in more inflows in the weeks leading to the year\u2019s end.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Market Confidence Fuels Tech and Digital Assets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Arms race – Russia missile strikes on Ukraine in response to the use of Western made missiles by its neighbour have triggered another round of escalation in the 1000-day conflict. What worries traders is whether this could open doors for more unprecedented events in the months to come. Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen have held their ground and found renewed interests as market participants look to hedge their risk appetite.<\/p>\n

Under pressure – US indices are holding onto their gains as investors anticipate a 25 basis point cut by the Fed at its December meeting. High watermarks in US equities reflect the market\u2019s confidence in its economy, offering better yields in a lower interest rate environment as well as safety backed by the American government. Individual stocks have found a boost from bright quarterly results from the likes of Nvidia, furthering cementing the confidence, so much that even the news of a possible breakup of Alphabet, parent of Google by the US Department of Justice have left the market unfazed.<\/p>\n

To the moon – Bitcoin continues to stay well-supported as it pushes its way to the landmark $100,000. Fundamentally, expectations of a more friendly business environment with an end to scrutiny from US regulators, growing popularity in bitcoin ETFs as well as escalations in geopolitical events bringing in more flows are major tailwinds for the digital asset. Technically, the question is who dares to say \u2018this is good enough\u2019 and put their money where their mouth is by taking the other side of the trade. Until then the momentum may stay strong.<\/p>\n

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15 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Assets Push Forward as Trump Secures both Houses<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dream team momentum -The market is on its toes as President-elect Donald Trump taps into personal ties to shape the next government. His comeback may have a large impact as a mix of tax cuts, immigration control and trade tariffs could go through with the blessing of a Republican-controlled Congress. The US dollar\u2019s strength and overall volatility can barely hide expectations of a dramatic shift in US policies.<\/p>

Euro\u2019s struggle. – Whispers of parity are back in the market, a reminiscence of the energy crisis back in 2022. This time around, investors fear that Mr Trump will be back to take care of his unfinished business with more tariffs. On the ECB\u2019s monetary policy, faster interest rate cuts than in the United States would put the single currency under further pressure.<\/p>

Crypto president – Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $90,000 is a telltale sign that traders are embracing the upcoming US administration for the best, and potentially the worst. The crypto industry is betting on a friendlier regime to trigger a broader adoption, leading up to another round of bull market. Meanwhile, outperformance by digital gold compared to altcoins may suggest traders\u2019 hedging of possible escalation in geopolitical disputes.<\/p>

Tech optimism – Stock market sentiment remains risk-on as a lower interest rate environment compounds the prospect of Republicans\u2019 laissez-faire agenda with tax cuts and looser regulations. Options players are piling into riskier assets notably the technology sector which they believe could reap a massive windfall from Trump\u2019s victory, supporting the current rally.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Day After: Global Market Reactions to Trump\u2019s Victory<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Donald Trump’s confirmation as the next US president has boosted stocks and assets that are seen as favourable to his administration.\u00a0 His agenda is set to bolster traditional industries such as construction, infrastructure, and energy. The policies announced by Donald Trump during his campaign were generally seen as inflationary,\u00a0due to tariffs\u00a0and onshoring, pro-growth, and as adding to the already burgeoning federal deficit, thanks to proposed tax cuts. How these policies affect the economic backdrop is likely to be one key driver of US stock market returns in the next four years.<\/p>

In the US, stocks soared last night to record highs with the S&P 500 jumping 2.5% to close at 5,929.04, while the Dow Jones surged 3.6%, reaching 43,729.93. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite advanced 3% to 18,983.47. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.435% from 4.411% late on Tuesday.<\/p>

Stocks in Asia recovered from early losses after US stocks jumped to record levels as investors tried to assess the impact of Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House on the global economy. The Hang Seng climbed 2% in Hong Kong, and the Shanghai Composite was 2.6% up by the end of the session.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the Chinese government reported that exports jumped nearly 13% in October compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years. However, the Nikkei slipped 0.3% on the day in Japan, reflecting worries over the potential for a revival of trade tensions under a Trump administration.<\/p>

The FTSE 100 and European stocks pushed higher in the Thursday early morning session as the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0(BoE) is\u00a0expected to cut interest rates again at noon. Money markets are strongly betting on a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut \u2014 that the benchmark rate will fall from its\u00a0current level of 5%\u00a0to 4.75%. It is the first announcement since the UK government unveiled their budget last week and comes as CPI\u00a0inflation\u00a0and\u00a0wage growth\u00a0continue to cool.<\/p>

Traders are now turning their attention to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England\u2019s decisions on interest rates later today. The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates again this evening by 25 basis points, amid a moderating inflation rate and a softening labour market.<\/p>

However, analysts have warned that it is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and concerns that he might seek significant influence over the central banks\u2019 policy decisions, that will be the main driver in the global financial markets.<\/p>

The pound dived against the dollar, following Trump\u2019s\u00a0claimed victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. The pound\u2019s decline marks a significant sell-off as traders brace for a shift in US economic policy under the prospect of a second Trump administration. Yesterday the US dollar surged to its largest single-day gain since March 2020, climbing 1.5% against a basket of major currencies.<\/p>

Gold prices were lower as investors moved away from the safe haven and into assets that could benefit under the new Trump administration, with spot gold currently trading lower at $2,665.00 per ounce. The drop in gold signals a broader market reaction to the US presidential election, which is dominating investor sentiment this week.<\/p>

The Fed\u2019s outlook to be announced later today, could also influence the direction of gold in the coming weeks, as rising rates tend to weigh on the precious metal.<\/p>

Oil markets were pressured by the results from the US elections and the latest weekly US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, with Brent crude futures trading at $71.87 per barrel. Oil prices have shown a dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump\u2019s victory.<\/p>

A new Trump administration would favour domestic fossil fuel producers as he aims to enhance America’s energy security. Approximately two thirds of the exchange-traded fund iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IOGP.AS) is held in US-listed assets. Trump is also likely to prioritise increased domestic oil and gas production.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trading Trump (vs) Harris - Election Anxiety Spikes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The FTSE 100 and European stocks are showing a mixed picture on Monday as traders anxiously await the outcome of the US presidential election, as well as a decision on\u00a0UK interest rates\u00a0from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0on Thursday, which is expected to make a quarter-point cut for the second time this cycle, taking UK interest rates to 4.75%.<\/p>

The U.S. election could bring unprecedented market swings across various asset classes and will shape the direction of the global financial markets and geopolitics for the next four years, with potential policy changes impacting stocks, commodities, forex, and other assets. Historically, election uncertainty has led to extreme volatility. During the 2020 election, financial markets experienced a $5 trillion fluctuation in market value in the weeks preceding and following the election: the VIX (Volatility Index) jumped by over 50%, and global markets experienced turbulence throughout the election cycle.<\/p>

Traders around the globe, are closely watching as Kamala Harris, running for the Democratic Party, races against leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. The outcome of the election will define the policies of the next administration which would have a tremendous impact on economic trends, international trade, and market stability.<\/p>

The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges.<\/p>

This volatility may present both risks and opportunities in the trading environment, therefore it would be prudent for traders to keep their trading accounts sufficiently funded in advance. This will allow them to manage margin requirements effectively, capitalise on potential opportunities, and mitigate any market risks.<\/p>

Potential Implications and Market Reactions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The race remains neck-and-neck as we approach tomorrow\u2019s vote, and investors have been positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump.<\/p>

In the US, Trump would likely shake up the status quo far more significantly than Harris, who has served as President Joe Biden\u2019s vice president for the past four years.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s focus on fiscal expansion and tariffs which would is expected to trigger higher inflation and would have a strong influence in Treasury and FX markets, as well as risk-on in equity markets favouring US cyclicals. Tax cuts would also be expected as part of Trump\u2019s economic policy.<\/p>

In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump\u2019s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies. Markets are pricing in some of the risks associated with Trump returning to the White House, suggesting that a Harris victory would trigger a bullish move for emerging markets, while factoring in the likely impact of higher taxes on earnings and reinforcement of wider macro forces.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s tariff plans carry particular risks for China for levies of 60% or more, which will increase pressure on the Chinese economy while the government is already struggling to revive the faltering economy.<\/p>

Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, may also come under pressure with tariff increases. The Yuan\u2019s one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years last month.<\/p>

Developing nations such as South Korea and Taiwan, with high exposure to the US and strong reliance on Chinese inputs could also face pressures from such an escalating trade war, as they would be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s statements on the US commitment to alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and to Ukraine\u2019s efforts to defeat Russia, have weighed on local bonds of certain eastern European countries and lifted Ukraine\u2019s dollar debt on speculation that Trump\u2019s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.<\/p>

What if the Result\u00a0is Contested?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The counting of the votes may only be the start of a new process that financial markets will struggle to interpret.<\/p>

Markets are expected to be volatile not only on the night of the election, but potentially in the days or weeks to follow. Declarations and rumours around key swing states like Pennsylvania will be particularly important and algo-driven markets could be particularly sensitive to such risk.\u00a0<\/p>

The greatest risk for global markets to consider would be if the election result is bitterly contested afterwards by the \u2018losing\u2019 party. Because the polls remain so close, the election creates a great deal of uncertainty with traders trying to price for a binary outcome. Key policies, particularly around trade, tariffs and the outlook for the US debt, will be greatly affected by the outcome and so the results will drive price action.\u00a0<\/p>

The biggest uncertainty facing the market is if the result is contested. It took days to declare Biden officially the winner in the 2020 election, while Trump contested the result almost until the January inauguration. The highest risk is that neither side is willing to concede, leading to a high-stakes legal roller coaster, which could in theory last not days but weeks. This outcome has the largest potential for a negative risk catalyst in the global markets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Oil prices heading for their biggest weekly gains in over a year <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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04 October 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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After a night of intense air strikes by Israel on Beirut, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in today\u2019s session. Oil prices posted their biggest one-day rise in almost a year, surging by more than 5%.<\/p>

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to around $77.90 a barrel. Weekly prices have experienced their biggest weekly percentage point gain since early 2023. Traders are concerned that potential supply disruptions may occur after President Joe Biden suggested that American officials were \u201cdiscussing\u201d whether to support an Israeli attack on Iran\u2019s oil facilities.<\/p>

In other news around the world, traders are watching the US jobs report due to be released at 13:30 BST today. With inflation declining, the crucial parameter now is the job market. According to consensus estimates reported by Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to show 150,000 jobs were added last month up from 142,000 reported in August, while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2%.<\/p>

Traders are trying to forecast how aggressively the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts. In the above scenario, the Fed will probably cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, smaller than its half-point cut in September. In Asia, China\u2019s stimulus package announced recently, continued to support markets higher into Friday\u2019s trading, with the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closing the session 2% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also closed 0.2% higher this morning, following a volatile week of trading caused by central bank announcements.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Pound Rally Against US Dollar Continues ahead of Interest Rate Decisions.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The European markets as well as the FTSE 100 are on the rise today, as investors are focusing on key central bank decisions later in the week from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0and the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>

The US Federal Reserve is expected to move towards cutting interest rates more aggressively\u00a0as it meets today and tomorrow.<\/p>

A 25 basis-point reduction by the US Federal Reserve would be a pivotal move, as investors hope that the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth. A more aggressive 50 basis points cut on the other hand would be the biggest single rate cut in 16 years triggering concerns of economic trouble ahead.<\/p>

The likelihood of a 25 basis-point reduction fell to 37% from 50% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision this Thursday. The market expectations are leaning towards holding rates at their current level.<\/p>

The pound has rallied against the dollar ahead of these major interest rate decisions, with the US currency trading near its lowest levels of the year.<\/p>

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12th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Returning to Global Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk appetite has returned to the markets after the world\u2019s largest technology companies made a bounce on Wall Street on Wednesday.<\/p>

Europe\u2019s Stoxx 600 index advanced by 1.2% yesterday, the most single day jump since mid-August, while Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.2%, treasuries were steady, and the dollar remained flat.<\/p>

In Asia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed the most in a month, supported by gains in the technology sector. In Japan, the Nikkei index reversed its seven-day losing streak, while the yen declined from its strongest level against the dollar since December.<\/p>

Traders are still focusing on interest rate developments, with the FTSE 100 and European stocks joining the global rally today, advancing in early trade ahead of an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank.<\/p>

US inflation data for August supported the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but fueled speculation that the move will be gradual.<\/p>

Market sentiment has been characterised by optimism that the Fed will drive the US economy to a soft landing and fear that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut rates. Swaps have now priced in a 25-basis point rate reduction next week, however there is an argument over the path for further reductions.<\/p>

Oil continues its gains from Wednesday as Hurricane Francine destroyed key oil-producing zones in the Gulf of Mexico triggering bearish bets, while Gold is still trading above $2,515 per ounce.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Global Stocks Tumble as Flight from Risk Continues<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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4th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A global flight from risk assets continues on Wednesday due to fears around the US economy and a sharp decline in US stocks especially in the big tech sector on Tuesday after the labour day holiday weekend.<\/p>

Traders are fearing additional swings, looking for clues on whether the US economy is threatened by a recession, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s next adjustments to its monetary policy.<\/p>

A US job openings report expected today will indicate whether there is further cooling in the labor market, marking a 5th<\/sup> consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. The market is shifting its focus from inflation to concerns over economic growth, causing turmoil in stocks and other risk assets.<\/p>

Traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing its policy in September by reducing rates by more than two full percentage points over the next 12 months, this is the steepest drop since the 1980s outside of a downturn. Furthermore, payrolls data is due on Friday and will be crucial in defining the magnitude of the initial rate cut.<\/p>

In currencies, the dollar snapped a five-day winning streak whilst the yen extended its gains.<\/p>

Oil dropped further after crashing to the lowest level this year, with Brent futures falling to around $73 a barrel due to growing concerns that weak demand and restored supplies from OPEC will create a new surplus.<\/p>

Gold futures are hovering above $2,515 per ounce, down from their all-time high last month but still up almost 22% year to date. The precious metal remains the traders\u2019 favourite hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, gaining additional support from expected Fed rate cuts later this month and ongoing EM central bank buying. Traders are pricing in a 31% probability of a 50-basis point cut instead of 25 basis points according to the CME FedWatch – CME Group<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The Santa Claus Rally<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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2nd Oct 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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2nd Oct 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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US Shutdown : Market uncertainty begins<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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US Shutdown : Market uncertainty begins<\/p>

The shutdown of the US government is now a reality. Beyond politics, the Labor Department issues a pause\u2014just when the economy is cooling down\u2014the true market risk is a data blackout.<\/p>

Background macro: Consumer confidence dropped to 94.2 from the predicted 96. At 3.2%, the hiring rate dropped to its lowest level since June 2024. There are somewhat more jobless people than available positions for a second month.<\/p>

Market analysis:<\/p>

Equities: Vulnerable, particularly those with significant multiple growth.<\/p>

Treasuries: Long yields may decline due to flight to quality.<\/p>

Dollar: Mixed (political noise against risk-off support).<\/p>

Gold: Gains from reduced real rates and uncertainty.<\/p>

How it could play out :
– Brief shutdown (\u22642 weeks): As data resumes, there is a rise in volatility followed by a relief bounce.
– Layoffs plus prolonged shutdown(>2\u20133 weeks): Deeper decline, broader credit spreads, EPS downgrades, and higher claims.<\/p>

Markets and investors fear uncertainty more than actual bad news, expect increased market volatility. US Indices have already began to breath, paring some of the recent gains.
Unmatched spreads.<\/p>

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11th Sep 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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CPI Boss Fight: Will the Fed Swing 25 or 50?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market is fighting for control when the August CPI is released on Thursday. The two things that seem exciting about a Fed cut next Wednesday are the amount and the rhetoric. The Fed may still cut 25 basis points if the CPI runs hot, particularly in core services (shelter, transportation, medical; ex-energy services), but it will be more tough about what comes next. However, a cold print would intensify rumors of a 50 bps move.<\/p>

Core: 3.1% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), headline 2.9% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), according to consensus. Composition is the trapdoor. From February to May, core services averaged 0.2% m\/m (~2.4% annualized); a 0.3% increase in August would raise the 3-month annualized pace to over 3.6%, which would feed concerns about “sticky inflation.” Indeed, companies are absorbing a portion of the tariff charge, lowering the prices of some commodities, and the PPI was unexpectedly lower. Wage pressure, however, is found in services inflation, which is also where the CPI index has significant weight.<\/p>

Because of this, stocks feel both justified and jittery at record highs. Bulls claim that a weaker PPI combined with worsening labor data means that easing is likely. Bears counter: reducing sticky services could lead to stagflation. A hotter core is likely to rocket front-end yields, knock richly priced growth, and give the dollar a knee-jerk bounce (which some strategists would fade on labor concerns). Rate-sensitives and long duration are the pivot.<\/p>

While gold hovers around records on cut hopes and oil slid as U.S. inventories built\u2014an economic cool-breeze tale that markets prefer to hear before CPI\u2014futures are green entering the print, aided by AI tailwinds (Oracle just staged a historic pop). As inflation turns out to be a little firmer than anticipated, the European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to hold, with both hawks and doves bolstering their cases but likely providing tight guidance.<\/p>

Trader’s perspective (not advice): \u2022 Hot core (\u22650.3\u20130.4% m\/m): Front-end yields \u2191; 2025 cut route reduced; gold softens; risk-off wobble.
\u2022 Cool core (\u22640.2% m\/m): higher yields, risk-on, bigger-cut buzz, gold steady\/up, and dollar easing.
\u2022 Mixed: The Fed’s statement becomes the market’s metronome; composition comes before the headline.<\/p>

In summary, the mix is more important than the level. Even if the initial cut comes on time next week, the glide path to easier policy becomes more difficult if that engine picks up speed again. Keep an eye on key services.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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27th August 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Wall Street is mesmerized by Nvidia, yet risks lurk in the background.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market’s fixation on one firm is overshadowing much larger threats that are simmering beneath the surface as Wall Street waits for Nvidia’s earnings.<\/p>

Nvidia is now more than just a stock to investors; it’s a gauge of the mood of the market. The chipmaker is now carrying the burden of an entire rally after reaching previously unheard-of heights on the artificial intelligence boom. Analysts and traders alike are keeping an eye on Nvidia to see if it can produce strong margins, rapid revenue growth, and evidence that the demand for AI-powered processors is still unquenchable on a global scale.<\/p>

The stakes are high: a beat might rekindle the exuberant momentum that has kept Wall Street afloat for months, while a failure on earnings or guidance could send shockwaves through equities. To put it briefly, Nvidia controls the market’s sentiment in addition to releasing financial data.<\/p>

However, a political tempest is brewing in Washington as Wall Street is enthralled by a single ticker sign. The independence of the U.S. central bank is being called into question by former President Donald Trump’s attempt to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Although the markets haven’t moved much, undermining the Fed could have significant effects on long-term interest rates, inflation, and the dollar.<\/p>

Main Street, meanwhile, is raising its own warnings. With more Americans reporting that finding a job is becoming more difficult and inflation forecasts gradually rising, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell in August. The forecast for the upcoming six months dropped to its lowest point in years, indicating that people are becoming increasingly concerned about the direction of the economy.<\/p>

Nvidia’s story may have enthralled Wall Street, but investors who overlook the political and economic undertones run the danger of being caught off guard. Sometimes, the shadows\u2014rather than the spotlight\u2014present the true threat.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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30 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Important Economic Events to Keep an Eye on This Week for Active Investors<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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There are a number of important macroeconomic events this week that might have a big impact on market sentiment and policy expectations. It will be essential for active investors to stay informed.<\/p>

Germany’s preliminary June CPI data, a crucial determinant of the ECB’s inflation outlook, is released on Monday. Additionally, the UK will release its Q1 national accounts, which will include capital flows from the banking sector and data on corporate investments.
China, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States will all release manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday. Given that growth forecasts are still shaky, these indicators will provide important information about the state of the global industrial economy.<\/p>

South Korea’s inflation figures and Eurozone unemployment data will be the main topics of discussion on Wednesday. A number of mid-sized businesses in the luxury and retail industries in Europe will release their earnings, giving an indication of consumer demand following the second quarter.<\/p>

Perhaps the most significant day of the week is Thursday. The focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls report (NFP). Expectations for the Fed’s next actions, and consequently the US currency and Treasury yields, could be directly impacted by any shocks in job creation, wage growth, or unemployment. Investors will also look for clues about upcoming rate decisions in the minutes of the ECB’s most recent meeting. Furthermore, considering the prominence of the service sector in developed economies, global services PMI numbers are due.<\/p>

Last but not least, Friday will be calmer because of the US Independence Day vacation, which usually lowers liquidity in international markets and could increase volatility elsewhere. However, further information about the state of the European economy will be provided by Germany’s industrial orders as well as EU housing and PPI data.<\/p>

In summary, traders are facing a high-stakes week as central bank narratives, employment, and inflation all play a role.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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23 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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As tensions in the Middle East worsen, oil prices rise, and markets are on edge.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran, which caused a dramatic increase in oil prices and heightened concerns about a bigger geopolitical crisis, global markets are on high alert. Oil futures have already jumped above $100, and some analysts have warned that prices might reach $130 or higher per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.<\/p>

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes, handling around 20% of the world’s oil traffic. Any disturbance would cause shockwaves in the energy markets, raise the price of gasoline globally, and further strain already precarious global supply systems.<\/p>

The stock markets are responding cautiously. Gold continues to be a reliable conventional safe haven during times of international unrest, while stock indices are declining as investors avoid risk. There are indications of technical weakness in the SP500, which could pave the way for another adjustment. In the meantime, institutional purchasing is fueling a spectacular bullish breakthrough in the oil markets. Although gold and bitcoin are still consolidating, they may rise quickly if tensions keep rising.<\/p>

Additionally, the dispute poses a threat of expanding beyond the current U.S.-Iran conflict. Potential cyberattacks, sabotage, and economic reprisal are causes for increasing anxiety. Global powers like China and Russia may try to safeguard their interests, while regional players like Israel, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are keeping a careful eye on things. The deputy director of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, made a bold statement after the U.S. strikes, saying that “several countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.” Russia has sent a strong message to Washington by formally denouncing the assaults as a flagrant breach of international law and pledging its support for Iran.<\/p>

Markets might collapse rapidly if Iran turns from threats to action. Investors and traders should prepare for high volatility.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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19 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Regional Conflict Between Israel and Iran Could Upend World Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Israeli-Iranian confrontation is much more than a regional geopolitical quarrel. If the situation worsens, a complicated network of economic concerns might jeopardize the stability of the world economy.<\/p>

Nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny passageway at the center of this threat. Even a little interruption may cause oil prices to rise sharply, possibly pushing crude well above $120 or even $150 per barrel. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, central banks are already having difficulty stabilizing prices, and this energy shock would swiftly translate into a fresh inflationary surge.<\/p>

Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be faced with a difficult choice in such a situation: either maintain high interest rates to fight inflation and run the risk of a catastrophic recession, or restore huge liquidity to the economy at the expense of undermining confidence in fiat currencies.<\/p>

There would probably be a period of intense volatility in the financial markets. Investors would rush into hard assets like gold, silver, commodities, and strategic real estate, while major stock indices might see severe corrections.<\/p>

This kind of crisis, however, has the potential to quicken a current trend: de-dollarization. Yuan or euros are already being used to settle some energy contracts. The U.S. dollar’s long-standing dominance would be called into question by a protracted crisis of confidence, which would have significant repercussions for the global monetary system.<\/p>

The systemic risks are real, but full-scale escalation is still preventable. A regional war can swiftly turn into a worldwide financial shock in the connected world of today.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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5 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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ECB Goes Loose as Global Trade Remains Uncertain<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Accommodative stance – The ECB’s eighth consecutive interest rate cut, down to 2%, signals an aggressive push to boost the bloc\u2019s economy amid lingering fallout from Trump’s trade war. With inflation now below the ECB\u2019s 2% target and core component showing signs of softening, the central bank is acting to ensure monetary conditions remain supportive. The cut had been anticipated by markets, but it underscores a broader shift toward policy easing as the ECB contends with external pressures, particularly from deteriorating global trade conditions and slower growth. Investors responded to the downward revision for 2026 growth with modest optimism and confidence that the ECB will remain accommodative. Expectations are now forming around a potential pause in July, and markets are likely to remain sensitive to future data releases, particularly if inflation pressures unexpectedly resurface or Trump\u2019s trade rhetoric escalates further.<\/span><\/p>

Jobs catalyst – U.S. stock indices edge higher as investors await the key non-farm payrolls report, in order to assess how Donald Trump’s trade policies are impacting the job market and the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate outlook. While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady this month, markets are pricing in at least two cuts by year-end. Despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, preferring to wait for more economic clarity amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have taken effect, with the threat of broader levies in July. Investors are now closely monitoring trade talks, particularly a potential call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.<\/p>

Supply expansion – Oil prices declined amid growing signs that Saudi Arabia is pushing for another increase in output, reinforcing market concerns over a potential supply glut in the second half of the year. The proposed increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day underscores a strategic shift toward defending market share rather than prioritising price stability. This comes as the kingdom aims to capitalise on seasonal peak demand during summer months. However, such a move also heightens risks of oversupply, especially with inventories already showing signs of building and global demand forecasts remaining vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties. A more aggressive supply expansion may exacerbate downward pressure on prices. Compounding the bearish sentiment, Saudi Aramco\u2019s price cut to Asia, though smaller than anticipated, signals weakening demand in key import markets.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fiscal Strains Boost Bitcoin At Expense of Commodities<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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New high – Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high above $111,000 on Thursday, extending its 2025 bull run even as U.S. equity markets pulled back. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to defy broader risk-off sentiment, driven by accelerating institutional inflows and growing regulatory clarity. Momentum has also been bolstered by progress on the regulatory front. The GENIUS Act \u2013 a bill designed to provide a framework for stablecoin regulation \u2013 cleared a key procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate this week. Market participants and crypto advocates view it as a positive step toward removing uncertainty in the digital asset space. With regulatory tailwinds, strong inflows, and sustained institutional confidence, bitcoin’s rise is increasingly being seen not just as speculative mania, but as a maturing asset class solidifying its role in the financial system.<\/p>

Output hike – Oil prices fell, pressured by expectations of increased output from major producers and rising concerns about global demand amid U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The sell-off was triggered by reports from Bloomberg that OPEC+ is considering a third consecutive production hike, with one proposal involving a July increase of 411,000 barrels per day \u2013 triple the group’s previously planned rise. The potential supply boost comes as oil markets already grapple with subdued demand signals, amplifying downside risks. In parallel, investors are growing uneasy over mounting U.S. debt. A tax-cut and spending bill through Congress have added to fears about fiscal sustainability, shaking broader market confidence. All eyes now turn to OPEC+\u2019s June 1 meeting for clarity on the cartel\u2019s next move.<\/p>

Critical juncture – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax-and-spending bill by a single vote, enacting much of Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda while intensifying fears over the nation\u2019s ballooning debt. The legislation is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. Markets reacted with mixed signals. U.S. stock futures edged higher after the bill\u2019s passage, but Treasury yields climbed, reflecting investor anxiety about government borrowing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faced fresh selling pressure as global confidence in American fiscal discipline continues to erode, aggravated by Trump\u2019s unpredictable tariff policy and mounting international skepticism toward the stability of U.S. assets. As political divisions deepen and long-term fiscal reform remains elusive, the market sees the U.S. finding itself at a critical juncture.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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15 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Uncertainty Reigns as Geopolitical Talks Unfold<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed optimism – Bitcoin traded higher helped by renewed institutional flows back into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The rebound in ETF activity came as inflation worries eased and trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of de-escalation. Lower-than-expected CPI helped bolster risk appetite and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates later this year. Despite the improved backdrop, market uncertainty, especially over global trade dynamics, continues to cap gains. Traders are expected to watch Friday\u2019s producer price data and Fed commentary closely for further cues.<\/p>

Fragile peace – Ukraine and Russia may hold long-awaited talks in Turkey today, but uncertainty shrouds the summit amid conflicting signals and a lack of high-level participation. Despite calling for the talks himself, Russian President Putin will not be attending. Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he will make a final decision on whether to attend after meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. US President Trump, who had signalled openness to adjusting his Middle East visit to join the summit, will also be absent. With global pressure mounting, both US and European leaders have warned that Moscow faces fresh sanctions if it fails to engage seriously and agree to a ceasefire.<\/span><\/p>

Supply concern – Oil prices fell amid rising expectations of a US-Iran nuclear agreement that could lead to sanctions relief and increased Iranian oil exports. President Trump signalled that a deal was \u201cvery close,\u201d with Tehran having \u201csort of\u201d agreed to the terms. An Iranian official also indicated willingness to proceed in exchange for sanctions relief, following four rounds of talks in Oman. Despite this diplomatic progress, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions targeting Iran\u2019s missile production and oil export networks, underscoring the fragile nature of the ongoing negotiations. Market sentiment was further pressured by a surprise rise in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a build of 3.5 million barrels last week, contrary to analyst expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw, fuelling concerns of oversupply.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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08 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Art of Deal Strikes Again<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Suspense deal – Gold prices slipped as optimism over a potential US-UK trade deal weighed on safe-haven demand. The move followed Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent agreement, with a press briefing scheduled for 2 p.m. GMT. The prospect of easing trade tensions has led investors to reduce gold exposure, favoring risk assets instead. Recent gains in gold, which recently hit record highs above $3,500\/oz, have largely been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive tariff rhetoric. However, the appetite for the metal appears to be softening as signs of diplomatic progress emerge. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar added further pressure, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Market sentiment remains cautious, though. While investor interest in gold remains historically elevated, demand from the jewellery sector has faltered, limiting upward momentum. Looking ahead, traders will watch for confirmation of the US-UK deal and any developments in US-China negotiations. If diplomacy gains traction, gold may trend lower in the near term, while a breakdown could trigger another spike in safe-haven flows.<\/p>

Timid recovery – Oil prices rebounded following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a forthcoming trade deal\u2014widely expected to be with the UK\u2014boosting market sentiment amid lingering concerns over global demand. The move offers a political win for Trump ahead of crucial US-China trade talks and has helped lift crude off recent lows sparked by tariffs and OPEC+ supply adjustments. While oil has faced downward pressure in recent weeks due to fears of a global slowdown and increased output from OPEC+ members, the prospect of a new trade agreement and falling US crude inventories is offering some near-term support with stockpiles dropping by 2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, partially offsetting Tuesday\u2019s bearish API report showing a 4.49 million barrel build.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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01 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Makes Return<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk on – Gold prices continued their decline midweek as investors scaled back safe-haven exposure amid renewed signs of US-China trade engagement. The pullback marks gold\u2019s third straight session of losses, driven by optimism that fresh talks could ease tariff tensions. Traders will be watching for confirmation of any formal dialogue between Washington and Beijing before the weekend. Furthermore, sentiment has been lifted by Trump’s executive orders easing auto tariff pressure and remarks pointing to possible deals with India, South Korea, and Japan. Looking ahead, with geopolitical risk premia unwinding and trade dialogue showing signs of progress, the precious metal may face further downside pressure near term. However, any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the market mood.<\/p>

Tech support – Stronger-than-expected Q1 results from Microsoft and Meta lifted sentiment across the tech sector, offsetting concerns about a potential advertising slowdown linked to tariff uncertainty. Microsoft delivered robust earnings, with EPS of $3.46 on $70B in revenue, surpassing forecasts. Notably, Azure revenue rose on the back of AI demand, slightly above expectations. Commercial cloud revenue saw continued enterprise demand despite macro headwinds. Meta also outperformed, posting EPS of $6.43 and $42.3B in revenue, well above estimates. Guidance for Q2 revenue came in strong at $42.5B\u2013$45.5B, despite management acknowledging ongoing tariff-driven ad market concerns. The dual beats and solid outlooks from two Magnificent 7 heavyweights provided a tailwind for the Nasdaq index.<\/p>

New deal – The newly signed US-Ukraine agreement granting Washington a share of profits from Ukraine’s future mineral and energy sales reflects a shift toward longer-term strategic and economic cooperation. While not a formal security guarantee, the deal gives the US tangible stakes in Ukraine\u2019s post-war recovery and resource access, helping to justify continued US support amid political debates over aid. The deal may bolster sentiment in energy and mining equities tied to US interests, particularly those with exposure to lithium, rare earths, or natural gas. However, uncertainty around control of resource-rich territories and absence of binding security commitments could temper investor enthusiasm in the near term.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Central Banks Go Dovish Over Clouded Economic Outlook<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Grim outlook – Markets remain nervous as the U.S. central bank struck a cautious note about the growth outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is caught between a rock and a hard place as tariffs are likely to stoke inflation. Speaking publicly for the first time since President Trump paused parts of his sweeping tariff plan, the Fed boss signalled a wait-and-see approach to interest rates, saying the Fed needs more clarity on the economy\u2019s trajectory. However, he warned that the ongoing trade turmoil could derail the central bank\u2019s inflation and employment goals. The uncertainty has bruised dollar-denominated assets across the board with the greenback slumping to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. U.S. stocks and bonds also have seen sharp outflows in recent weeks.<\/p>

Cloudy sky – The euro held steady as the ECB slashed interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its key deposit rate down to 2.25% as trade tensions rattle the eurozone\u2019s economic outlook. The move, widely expected by markets, follows growing uncertainty tied to U.S.-led tariff hikes that have roiled global commerce. In a stark policy statement, the central bank flagged “rising trade tensions” as a key driver of deteriorating growth prospects, with President Christine Lagarde warning of “exceptional uncertainty” ahead. Europe now faces a sharp uptick in U.S. tariffs\u2014climbing from 3% to roughly 13%\u2014creating what Lagarde called a \u201cnegative demand shock.\u201d While many tariffs have been paused, the lingering threat of escalation has cast a shadow over inflation expectations and economic momentum.<\/p>

Mounting pressure – While the week wraps early for commodities ahead of Good Friday, bullish drivers have outweighed bearish signals. Crude prices are set to notch a weekly gain, buoyed by fresh U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms trading Iranian oil. The move adds to mounting pressure on Tehran and raises the prospect of tighter global supply, especially as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions through economic means. The International Energy Agency also added upward momentum by trimming its forecast for global supply growth. In its latest monthly report, the agency cut its forecast for this year by 260,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of just 1.2 million bpd. The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated output from the U.S. and Venezuela, adding to market concerns over tighter supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Trade Policy Keeps Investors on Edge<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tariff Reloaded – Markets staged a dramatic rebound at Thursday\u2019s open after President Donald Trump made a surprise reversal on tariff policy, temporarily slashing new import duties to 10% for most U.S. trade partners over a 90-day period. The sharp pivot marked a stark contrast to his earlier hardline stance and triggered a powerful rally across Wall Street. The S&P 500 soared in its third-biggest one-day gain since World War II, the Dow posted its strongest advance since the COVID crash of March 2020, and the Nasdaq exploded in its second-best session ever. Despite the relief rally, trade tensions remain high. The reciprocal tariffs Trump had long threatened officially came into effect, targeting nearly 90 countries. China was notably excluded from the temporary reprieve, with tariffs on Chinese goods escalating sharply after Beijing announced fresh duties on U.S. imports. The European Union also hit back, approving its first wave of countermeasures in response to the earlier U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs, signalling that the global trade skirmish is far from over.<\/p>

Empire Strikes Back – The escalating showdown has rattled all asset classes, stoking fears of a growth slowdown, rising inflation, and squeezed corporate earnings. Amid the mounting uncertainty, gold has seen a sharp rally, as investors seek safety in traditional havens. China has fired back once again at President Donald Trump\u2019s escalating tariff offensive, announcing a steep increase in duties on U.S. imports. Starting April 10, tariffs on American goods entering China will soar to 84%, up from the previous 34%, according to the latest statement from the Office of the Tariff Commission. The move comes in direct response to Washington\u2019s own overnight hike, which pushed tariffs on Chinese goods past the 100% mark. This tit-for-tat trade war is rapidly deepening, threatening to paralyse commerce between the world\u2019s two largest economies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

OPEC Strains – Oil prices remain fragile even though OPEC’s production slipped in March, just ahead of a planned output increase, as key members faced disruptions and mounting geopolitical pressure. Nigeria scaled back deliveries to domestic refineries, notably the Dangote facility, leading to a decline that offset stronger export volumes. Meanwhile, renewed efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to choke off oil flows from Iran and Venezuela contributed to further production drops from those nations. In total, output from Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each fell by around 50,000 barrels per day. Despite this, Nigeria remains slightly above its OPEC+ production target, with Gabon identified as the bloc\u2019s least compliant member. The latest figures highlight the fragile balance within OPEC+ as it begins to cautiously unwind some of its recent cuts. The full impact of the planned production hike may ultimately hinge on the success of Washington\u2019s push to curtail supplies from Tehran and Caracas.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets in Turmoil Amid Escalating Trade War<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Asian and European markets suffered a major blow as the fallout from President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariff announcements triggered a global sell-off. In Asia, Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index experienced a historic crash, while Taiwan\u2019s TAIEX tumbled to an all-time low in a dramatic market rout. The chaos spilled into Europe, where the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 opened sharply lower and Germany\u2019s DAX endured a full-blown bloodbath at the open. Although European markets have since clawed back some losses, volatility remains high as investors brace for more turbulence amid the escalating trade showdown.<\/span><\/p>

US futures are pointing to a rough start on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 expected to open down, reflecting deepening investor unease. Meanwhile, Brent Crude prices have slumped to their lowest level since April 2021, underscoring growing concerns over global demand. Even cryptocurrencies, often touted as alternatives to traditional finance, have been swept up in the turmoil. In a sell-off as widespread and intense as this, few risk assets are managing to escape the fallout unscathed.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitical and Trade Escalations Fuel Market Jitters<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Military Standoff – The U.S. is stepping up its military presence in the Middle East, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sending in extra warplanes for an ongoing bombing campaign in Yemen. The move adds more fuel to the fire in Washington\u2019s standoff with Iran, as Trump continues to push for nuclear negotiations\u2014using both tariffs and military threats as leverage. Over the weekend, Trump warned Tehran that more strikes (and even more tariffs) could be on the way if talks don\u2019t move forward. Iran, however, isn\u2019t budging. In a firm response via Oman, Tehran made it clear that it won\u2019t negotiate under pressure. With both sides digging in, tensions remain sky-high. Unless some behind-the-scenes diplomacy works its magic, we could be looking at more economic and military maneuvers, which would keep markets\u2014and the energy sector\u2014on edge.<\/p>

Trade Turmoil – Wednesday\u2019s much-anticipated tariff announcement couldn\u2019t come at a trickier time for the markets. Stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride for weeks, thanks to ever-changing trade policy chatter, and investors are still feeling pretty jittery. Unfortunately, it doesn\u2019t look like this latest move will do much to calm nerves. In fact, things might get even messier\u2014China, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly teaming up to hit back at Trump\u2019s tariff push. A coordinated counterstrike from these economic heavyweights could mean an extended trade skirmish, potentially tangling up supply chains and putting a damper on global growth. As traders sift through the details of this two-step tariff plan, all eyes will be on possible exemptions and any hints of a diplomatic breakthrough. And let\u2019s not forget the Fed\u2014already juggling economic curveballs, officials may have yet another headache if rising import costs start stoking inflation concerns.<\/span><\/p>

Oil Balancing – OPEC turned down the oil tap a little in March, trimming production by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it tried to keep supply in check before ramping things up again in May. According to Bloomberg\u2019s latest survey, the group\u2019s total output now stands at 27.43 million bpd, with members being reminded to stick to their quotas. This cut is all part of OPEC\u2019s ongoing effort to keep oil markets steady and prices supported, despite unpredictable demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still set to move forward with its planned production hikes, adding 138,000 bpd in May after a similar bump in April. As usual, traders will be keeping a close eye on OPEC\u2019s next moves, since oil price stability remains a delicate balancing act\u2014especially with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting demand trends in the mix.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Move on After Dovish Fed Decision<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Stay safe – The gold market remains in the upward direction, hovering near recent highs as the Federal Reserve maintains a neutral monetary policy stance\u2014despite raising its inflation outlook and trimming its growth forecast. As widely expected, the Fed held interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. However, policymakers provided little forward guidance, leaving markets guessing about the timing of future rate moves. The updated dot plot projections remained unchanged from December, showing rates ending the year at 3.9%, with further declines to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. While the central bank appears in no rush to cut rates, it is adopting a more measured approach toward its balance sheet\u2014adding another layer of complexity to the market\u2019s outlook.<\/span><\/p>

Stake high – Geopolitical stakes remain high in Ukraine with renewed airstrikes escalating tensions and fueling market uncertainty. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian sites, including hospitals, while suggesting that Putin has effectively dismissed a comprehensive ceasefire. The renewed hostilities come after Putin\u2019s recent conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, in which the Russian leader reportedly conditioned any ceasefire on the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. With no immediate resolution in sight, geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk factor for global markets, potentially triggering further volatility in energy prices, equities, and safe-haven assets.<\/p>

Caution ahead – The US dollar saw little bid after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and reaffirmed its projection for two rate cuts in 2024. While the central bank revised its economic outlook, some analysts interpreted the announcement as dovish, reinforcing expectations for eventual easing. Risk assets bounced back following the Fed\u2019s commitment to rate cuts, with equities gaining traction as investor sentiment improved. However, the greenback faced renewed pressure, reflecting shifting rate expectations. The updated forecasts indicate that policymakers remain cautious, aiming to balance inflation risks with economic stability, leaving markets closely watching the timing of the first rate cut.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Choose Flight to Safety<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Hold still – The British pound remains supported ahead of the Bank of England\u2019s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 20 March, where policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%. The central bank had previously cut rates by 25 basis points in February, but rising geopolitical risks and tightening global financial conditions have reinforced expectations of a pause. The impact of US trade policies, particularly Trump\u2019s tariff measures, has already pushed UK bond yields higher, contributing to a stronger pound. While domestic economic indicators remain mixed, the BoE appears reluctant to continue easing in an environment where external shocks could sustain inflationary pressures. Markets will be watching for any forward guidance that could shape expectations for the BoE\u2019s next policy move, which is likely to influence sterling\u2019s trajectory in the near term.<\/span><\/p>

Hard hit – Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off this week as investors repriced risk in response to growing concerns over US economic stability. Even President Trump\u2019s economic team has acknowledged potential turbulence ahead, a shift that has fuelled risk aversion across asset classes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4%, while the S&P 500 extended its recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite suffered the most significant decline, plunging 4.5%. The tech sector led the decline, with the “Magnificent Seven” stocks driving the sell-off. The pullback reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, compounded by Trump\u2019s aggressive trade policies. The US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations remain unresolved, keeping markets on edge as investors assess potential tariff impacts on corporate earnings and economic growth.<\/p>

New high – Gold prices have staged a strong recovery, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid ongoing market volatility and geopolitical risks. Despite a slight cooling in inflation pressures, the latest US CPI data failed to alleviate broader recession fears. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of 0.3% and down from 0.5% in January. Although gold experienced a sharp decline at the end of February\u2014dropping over $130 to touch $2,833\u2014technical support at key moving averages provided a floor for prices, leading to a swift rebound above $2,900. This resilience suggests that bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants continuing to hedge against economic uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Retreat as Geopolitics Takes Over Monetary Policy<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Rally on hold – Markets are on edge as investors weigh the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on major US trading partners. The new measures\u201425% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a sharp increase in China duties to 20%\u2014went into effect on Tuesday. Canada wasted no time hitting back with its own round of immediate tariffs on US imports, while China responded with a 15% levy on American farm products like chicken and pork, set to take effect on March 10. However, Beijing’s relatively measured response left some analysts speculating that there\u2019s still room for negotiation with Washington. With trade tensions heating up, investors are bracing for potential market turbulence in the days ahead. The S&P 500 has tanked to its November lows just above the 5700 mark. Any major escalation in the trade spat could spark a deeper correction in the coming weeks.<\/span><\/p>

Geopolitical chessboard – Gold prices are taking a breather as traders lock in some profits after a strong recovery earlier this week. The price action is seemingly trying to hold onto its bullish momentum. Fundamental-wise, safe-haven demand continues to underpin gold, fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index this week. Adding to the global economic mix, China\u2019s National People’s Congress kicked off its annual session by reaffirming its 5% growth target for 2025, most likely as a defiant signal to Mr Trump\u2019s aggressive foreign policy. On the eastern front, Trump claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had expressed gratitude for U.S. support and signalled a willingness to sign a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral rights. Mixed statements such as this add yet another layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical chess match.<\/span><\/p>

Swift comeback – The euro flexed its muscles against most major currencies after the European Central Bank\u2019s latest interest rate move. As expected, the central bank trimmed rates by 25 basis points. But what really caught the market\u2019s attention was Christine Lagarde\u2019s tone during the press conference. Rather than signaling a dovish pivot, the ECB president struck a more hawkish note, stressing that future rate cuts would depend on incoming data. That cautious stance gave the euro a solid lift, as traders recalibrated their expectations for her next moves. Adding fuel to the rally, the euro is also buoyed by optimism over Europe’s growth following Germany’s proposal for a massive \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund. The plan is seen as a potential counterweight to global trade tensions, offering a boost to the region\u2019s economic outlook. The bullish news compound the bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar which stumbled across the board, dragged down by mounting concerns over the impact of tariffs on inflation and broader economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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28 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Jitters as Trump Goes Against Rest of the World<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cautious approach – Markets are gaining confidence as investors digest Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings, which reassured them about AI growth despite initial concerns over DeepSeek and weakening demand. While the company\u2019s profit outlook initially sparked some hesitation on Wall Street, Nvidia\u2019s stock rebounded after an early dip. At the same time, traders are closely watching President Trump\u2019s latest tariff threats, which have added to existing economic jitters. On Wednesday, he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union and reinstate paused duties on Canada and Mexico. However, the lack of clear details left markets guessing about the timeline and potential impact. The S&P 500 is trying to squeeze out modest gains the latest session, in an attempt to end its five-day streak of losses.<\/span><\/p>

Bouncing back – The euro-dollar exchange rate has pulled back to its mid-February lows around 1.0400 as the US Dollar remains strong amid a risk-off mood. Still, caution might be warranted as the remarkable strength of the US dollar in recent months has been challenged by a string of underwhelming economic reports\u2014ranging from a dip in consumer confidence to sluggish retail sales and weak consumer sentiment\u2014has shaken markets and fuelled concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors are now weighing whether these signals point to a temporary slowdown or a more persistent challenge ahead. Nevertheless, the greenback could benefit from erratic tariff decisions by Donald Trump against European and Japanese imports, making it the least vulnerable of the majors out there.<\/span><\/p>

Wild ride – Bitcoin\u2019s wild ride in its 6-figure valuation took a sharp turn downward as the digital gold plunged to its lowest level since November, dragging the broader crypto market down with it and erasing nearly half a trillion dollars in value. After soaring past $108,000 last month\u2014coinciding with Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration and his self-proclaimed status as the \u201cBitcoin President\u201d\u2014BTC is struggling to stay above $85,000. The selloff has been partly linked to growing investor frustration over Trump\u2019s unfulfilled promises nearly a month into his term, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. On a more technical level, expiring bitcoin options sitting in crypto exchanges, worth an estimated $3.9 billion, could expire out of the money, as most positions were set at higher price levels, further exacerbating market volatility. The crypto market also took another hit after a massive hack on the Bybit platform, described as the \u201cbiggest digital heist ever.\u201d Hackers managed to steal around $1.5 billion by gaining control of an Ethereum wallet on the Dubai-based exchange. The shock of the breach, combined with Bitcoin\u2019s price collapse, has sent ripples through the industry, intensifying concerns over security vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Unfettered Risk Appetite Keeps Brewing<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Safe bet – Sustained demand for gold keeps the chart trajectory upward as investors weigh monetary policy against geopolitical winds. Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period. This could discourage traders from making new bets, creating a headwind for the non-yielding metal. However, a renewed decline in US Treasury bond yields is keeping dollar bulls on the back foot, providing further support for gold prices. More importantly, the broader fundamentals still favour an upward trend for bullion, keeping the metal\u2019s two-month rally intact. Gold’s bullish momentum is fuelled by concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could spark a global trade war, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.<\/span><\/p>

Tables turned – The S&P 500 is inching up in a timid manner as market participants fret that a peace talk between the US and Russia without Ukraine could signal a dramatic shift in US foreign policy. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Donald Trump reached new heights after the latter took to social media to mock Zelensky, calling him a \u201cdictator without elections.\u201d Zelensky fired back, accusing Trump of falling for Russian disinformation regarding the war in Ukraine. The heated exchange followed a controversial meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war\u2014without Ukraine at the table. After the meeting, Trump suggested Ukraine had initiated the conflict, prompting a swift and sharp rebuttal from Zelensky. The rhetoric highlights the risk of the US pulling the plug on Kyiv\u2019s war effort, alienating its European allies in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Still hodling – Bitcoin continues to defy concerns from the Federal Reserve\u2019s latest meeting minutes, which signalled officials remain hesitant to cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed pointed to trade policies under the Trump administration as a potential obstacle to controlling inflation. Despite this cautious stance, Bitcoin continued its rally, holding steady as investors shrugged off rate uncertainty and focused on the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price tends to move in tandem with interest rate expectations because lower rates mean more liquidity in the market, making speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Added uncertainty from the Ukraine geopolitical twist might have convinced more investors to pour into the digital gold.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ukraine Optimism Offsets Trade Worries<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Inflation still hot – The much-anticipated U.S. inflation figure came out hotter than expected, throwing a wrench into hopes for near-term rate cuts. January\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.9%. The \u201ccore\u201d CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in even stronger at 3.3% versus the anticipated 3.1%\u2014marking the hottest inflation reading in months. These numbers bolster the case for monetary policy hawks who argue the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, prioritising the fight against inflation. However, President Trump took to social media, pushing back and insisting the U.S. needs lower interest rates.\u00a0<\/span>The U.S. dollar index initially spiked on the inflation report but later gave up gains to trade lower. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.65% following the data, keeping limited support to the greenback.<\/span><\/p>

Stabilisation factor – The oil price slump gained momentum as President Donald Trump took his first major step toward brokering an end to Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, just weeks after his inauguration. Trump took to social media to announce that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations immediately, adding that he would be calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to inform him of the conversation. A potential ceasefire could further weigh on oil prices if Trump pushes to roll back sanctions on Russia\u2019s energy sector. On a more fundamental level, the market\u2019s depressed sentiment has been fuelled by rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling that the Fed isn\u2019t rushing to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity and weaken oil demand.<\/span><\/p>

Steady climb – Wall Street reacted to the latest American CPI data with a knee-jerk selloff, but S&P 500 has found support and is still consolidating near its recent highs. A key factor? Reports that President Trump had a “productive” phone call with Russian President Putin about ending the Russia-Ukraine war, offering investors a glimmer of optimism, which would offset concerns with rising global trade tension, notably with the new administration\u2019s reciprocal tariffs. On the corporate side, the fourth-quarter earnings season rolls on. So far, more than 69% of S&P 500 companies have already released their results, and the majority are delivering pleasant surprises\u2014over 75% have topped Wall Street\u2019s forecasts, according to FactSet.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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7 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trade Spat Casts Shadow Over Sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Record high – Gold prices surged to yet another all-time high in this week\u2019s trading, driven by strong safe-haven demand as investors flock to the yellow metal amid rising uncertainty. Market nerves remain on edge as President Trump\u2019s unpredictable and potentially disruptive policy moves keep traders guessing. Meanwhile, China-U.S. trade tensions are heating up, with both nations escalating tariffs and taking further hostile business actions against each other this week. The EU may not be spared either after Trump doubled down on his plan to hike tariffs on the block, adding another layer of uncertainty to global trade dynamics. Experts fret that this \u201celevated trade policy uncertainty\u201d could drag on economic growth in the coming months, primarily by dampening business investment and weakening market confidence. Goldman Sachs has warned that the eurozone economy could suffer a \u201csizable hit to activity\u201d from the rise in trade tensions. With geopolitical and economic uncertainty mounting, gold continues its record-breaking rally, proving once again that when uncertainty reigns, gold shines.<\/p>

Mixed feelings – U.S. stocks have recouped their recent losses as they strive to hold onto this year\u2019s limited gains. While earnings from Alphabet and AMD fell short of expectations, Big Tech found support thanks to a strong rally in Nvidia. Alphabet\u2019s stock took a hit, sliding nearly 7%, after its fourth-quarter cloud revenue came in below estimates. The shortfall raised concerns that the company’s aggressive AI investments may take longer than expected to pay off. However, Nvidia emerged as a winner, climbing more than 5% as investors bet that the chipmaker could benefit from the ongoing AI spending spree. Overall, a retreat of the 10-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since December 2024 further added support to the market\u2019s rebound.<\/span><\/p>

Sluggish demand – Crude oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels of the year as fears of weakening demand rattled investors. The drop comes after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports, while U.S. stockpiles climbed for the second straight week. WTI crude hit its lowest point since December 31, 2024, as tensions between the top two consumers escalated. With China\u2014the world\u2019s largest oil importer\u2014facing economic headwinds, concerns are mounting over a potential slowdown in global energy demand. On Tuesday, China\u2019s State Council Tariff Commission announced a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with a 10% duty on American crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles, set to take effect next week. Meanwhile, fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing fears of weakening demand and adding further pressure to oil markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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31 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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AI Race and Safe Haven in Tandem<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tech correction – US tech stocks stabilised after plunging on Monday due to the sudden rise of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) app DeepSeek. The open source solution sent chipmaker Nvidia into a nosedive, triggering a broader selloff across the market. The turbulence followed DeepSeek\u2019s claim that its AI model was developed at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, prompting investors to rapidly reassess their bets on AI and the ROI on the costly infrastructure, and casting uncertainty over America\u2019s AI dominance. President Donald Trump called the moment \u201ca wake-up call\u201d for the US tech industry while downplaying concerns over the breakthrough, affirming that the US will remain a leading force in AI. For traders following the price action, unless the Nasdaq sinks below its 2-month lows around 20600 the index is merely consolidating near its historic high. The market\u2019s eventual resilience would prove the optimism surrounding AI investments that has fuelled much of the US stock market\u2019s surge over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>

ECB easing – The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its fifth rate cut on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points as it walks a tightrope between rising inflation and sluggish growth. After months of cooling, inflation in the eurozone is heating up again, hitting 2.4% in December – its third straight increase – just as the effects of cheaper energy start to fade. At the same time, the region\u2019s economy is stuck in neutral. Fresh data showed zero growth in the final quarter of 2024, falling short of economists\u2019 modest 0.1% forecast and following a 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. Commenting on the latest move, ECB President Christine Lagarde didn\u2019t sugarcoat the situation, admitting that the euro area economy is \u201cset to remain weak in the near term.\u201d In other words, while inflation is picking up, growth is taking a nap – leaving the ECB with the tricky job of keeping both in check. FX-wise, the single currency is far from being out of the woods as the US Fed stayed put with its interest rates unchanged, broadening the differential between the two economic entities.<\/span><\/p>

Shining again – Gold is back on its feet after dragging its feet for the past three months. The price has surged to a new all-time fuelled by strong safe-haven demand and technical buying. Investor jitters over the new US administration\u2019s trade and foreign policies – especially the potential for fresh tariffs – are keeping the marketplace on edge. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting on Wednesday with a clear signal: interest rates are staying unchanged for the foreseeable future. Policymakers acknowledged that \u201cinflation remains somewhat elevated,\u201d but Chair Jerome Powell downplayed any shift in stance, brushing off the change in wording as mere \u201clanguage clean-up.\u201d Powell steered clear of commenting on how President Trump\u2019s policies might influence the Fed\u2019s decisions. Markets, in turn, took the Fed\u2019s statement and Powell\u2019s press conference in stride, showing little reaction.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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24 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trump 2.0 May Complicate Fed Policy Course<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Technical recovery – The euro\u2019s current rebound is likely to be due to profit-taking after it hit a 26-month low earlier this year. General sentiment remains downbeat as the ECB keeps pushing in the loosening direction while the Fed is taking their feet off the pedal. President Christine Lagarde and other senior officials expressed support for additional rate cuts, potentially weakening the shared currency in the short term. Markets have already priced in another 25bp cut next Thursday, the fifth of the easing cycle, with expectations that interest rates will drop to 2% by year-end. Adding insult to injury would be the looming U.S. tariffs championed by Trump 2.0 elevating the risk of higher inflation in a fragile economy. Despite Lagarde\u2019s reassurance that the central bank is \u201cnot overly concerned\u201d about external factors, the market always finds a way to play in a cynical and pragmatic way and may keep the lid on the exchange rate.<\/p>

Verbal escalation – Gold is surfing on renewed geopolitical tensions following Mr Trump\u2019s inauguration. Stakes in the eastern front have been raised as the new U.S. president looks to boast his \u2018art of the deal\u2019 by settling the war in Ukraine in a swift manner. He delivered on his own social media platform Truth Social this week an ultimatum to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin saying that Russia should strike a deal or face even tougher economic consequences. Warnings of extending sanctions on all Russian exports to the United States and secondary penalties for nations conducting business with Moscow may push the latter to a corner if a deal fails to materialise, exacerbating the divide between the East and the West. The precious metal\u2019s solid run lately in spite of the dollar\u2019s strength signals growing demand for its safe haven status.<\/span><\/p>

Clash of the titans – The U.S. dollar has given back its recent gains as traders await a new catalyst from the central bank\u2019s interest rate decision next week. To spice things up, Powell & Co\u2019s cautious stance puts the Federal Reserve on a potential collision course with the new assertive president. Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs in a significant manner. As far as the market is concerned, the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25-4.5% next week, in the wake of three consecutive cuts since September. However, policymakers have adopted a more conservative approach for the year especially as Mr Trump\u2019s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes, and tighten immigration policies could complicate efforts to lower inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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UK Worries Weigh on Cable<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mini crisis – The pound has plunged to its lowest level in over a year, while UK borrowing costs have reached a 16-year high. The latest bond market sell-off reflects investors\u2019 growing concerns over UK assets and most importantly the contrasting signal between higher gilt yields and a falling currency shows investors\u2019 doubt over the country\u2019s economic outlook and the health of its public finances. The market turmoil has added pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faces increasing scrutiny, made an uncommon move by issuing a public statement for the second consecutive night, emphasising her \u201ciron grip\u201d on public finances. But despite government efforts to stabilise the markets, borrowing costs continue to climb. Addressing an urgent question in the House of Commons, Treasury Minister Darren Jones assured there was “no need for an emergency intervention” in financial markets. However, market participants still have the memory of the mini-budget crisis under the former prime minister Liz Truss in September 2022.<\/p>

Seasonal demand – Brent crude is staging a steady recovery to its 3-month high as the market demand has shifted its focus to colder weather than the last two winters, in both Europe and the United States, which could boost consumption of heating oil. A stronger U.S. dollar and an unexpected rise in U.S. stockpiles have not deterred buyers from shying away, with technical buying-the-dips compounding the seasonal factor. There are high hopes that the recent weak CPI print in China would spur more stimulus to tackle the country\u2019s chronic economic headache. In the meantime, a surge in travel across China ahead of the Lunar New Year has improved demand expectations, adding to rationales that would help the price stabilise in the near term.<\/p>

Bullish consolidation – The December U.S. jobs report was a blowout for the outgoing administration with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The print was a confirmation that would lessen the worry about the impact of high interest rates on the job market. While the market participants await further rejuvenation of the economy under Trump 2.0, the earnings season is kicking off next week with Q4 and full-year results from Wall Street\u2019s big banks. Investors anticipate impressive numbers as trading volumes have significantly exceeded typical fourth-quarter levels across all asset classes, fuelled by a growing participation from retail traders amid a bull run in both stock and cryptocurrency markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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3 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Investors Remain Confident about U.S. Growth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Parity in sight – The market is waiting for fresh catalysts in the first week of 2025 and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls might just give participants enough a reason to stay alert. A strong reading could be the straw that broke the euro\u2019s back as the single currency is inching towards the parity threshold, last seen in November 2022. The market consensus is that Trump\u2019s policies will sustain support for the greenback, as tax reliefs will put upward pressure on inflation and make further interest rate cuts less easy to justify, while tariffs against the eurozone would be seen as rubbing salt in the wound, undermining its growth outlook.\u00a0<\/p>

Steady recovery – Gold is striving for a comeback after it stabilised around its recent low of $2,600. The precious metal gains strength thanks to its safe-haven appeal, as investors turn their attention to President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s upcoming administration, set to begin on January 20. Anticipated policies from Trump, including higher import tariffs and lower taxes, are expected to benefit gold. More specifically, elevated tariffs could spark a global trade war, while reduced taxes may increase inflationary pressures in the United States. Gold often thrives in times of economic uncertainty as a safer asset and performs well during periods of rising inflation, as investors use it to hedge against price increases. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields fall to approximately 4.5%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, enhancing their attractiveness.<\/p>

Hesitant start – Stocks began January with a volatile trading session as investors locked in profits from notable 2024 winners like Apple and Tesla. The much-anticipated \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally, which typically boosts stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, failed to materialize as the market preferred the certainty of gains other than the promise of higher watermarks, leaving the S&P 500 with four straight days of losses into the year\u2019s end\u2014its first such streak since 1966. Still there is high hope that the rally will stay put as pro-growth and inflationary policies in the U.S. may keep fuelling the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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20 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fed Pours Cold Water Before Christmas<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed pressure – The euro is hovering near its 4-week low as traders price in a potential acceleration in the interest rate differential across the Atlantic. The ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place after its U.S. counterpart adopted a hawkish stance in the last meeting. In the meantime, inflation in the eurozone has become steady though not subdued with the November reading coming in below expectations at 2.2%. The market expects the central bank to stay the course on reducing borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate growth. While the Fed might hold back from another increase in January 2025, the ECB is expected to reduce interest rates at every meeting until June 2025, leaving the single currency struggle against other majors.<\/span><\/p>

Bullion dilemma – On the one hand, the prospect of lower global interest rates would make the non-yielding metal more appealing by lowering the cost of opportunity. On the other, a relatively strong U.S. economy and an unusually hawkish Fed might keep Treasury yields high, leaving gold in the shadows. How far the retracement may go would reflect bids on the mighty dollar as its recovery across the board so far has put the precious metal under pressure. The price action is consolidating as liquidity starts to dry out going into Christmas, but it would be too soon to call for a bearish reversal.<\/span><\/p>

Close call – Stock markets saw sharp pullbacks after the Federal Reserve commented on a \u2018closer call\u2019 on its loosening policy. As widely anticipated, the U.S. central bank lowered its key interest rate this Wednesday by 25 basis points, the third consecutive cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022. However, policymakers struck a cautionary note on their next move. Inflation has been holding steadily above target against the backdrop of uncertain economic growth on a global macro level, prompting the Fed to slow down on its monetary easing path, with indications that there probably would be only two small cuts in 2025. The decision has given risk assets such as tech stocks which have been front-running the yield curve a reason to take a breather, sending the S&P and Nasdaq indices off their recent peaks.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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13 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Anticipating Another U.S. Rate Cut<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar recovery – The U.S. dollar is bouncing back across the board as traders reposition ahead of the last Federal Reverse rate decision of the year. The market overwhelmingly anticipates an additional 25-basis-point rate cut in the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. However the persistence of sticky inflation might put the brakes on the pace of future rate cuts, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England might trim their respective rates faster in the face of stalling economies. The prospect of this differential could prove particularly beneficial for the greenback.\u00a0<\/p>

Gold consolidation – Bullion has pulled back from its 3-week high as the market digests a crucial regime change in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad dynasty last weekend left a void in an increasingly turbulent region and exposed Iran, its former ally, prompting traders to ponder major stakeholders\u2019, namely the U.S. and Russia and their proxies\u2019 next move on the geopolitical chessboard. As a result, heightened uncertainty may keep safe haven seekers busy as the new year could reserve additional surprises. In the meantime, news of physical buying by the People\u2019s Bank of China may offer further support.<\/span><\/p>

S&P high watermark – The U.S. index is still holding on to its all-time high as investors bet on a downward trajectory of the interest rates. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October’s 2.6% annual increase, but in line with economists’ forecasts. Participants in the rally have so far shrugged off economists\u2019 view of Trump’s proposed policies\u2014such as imposing high tariffs on imports, cutting corporate taxes, and restricting immigration\u2014as potentially inflationary. The optimism may live on as long as evidence shows a lack of an upside surprise in inflation data.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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06 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Job Report Sends U.S. Dollar into Retreat<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar pullback – The latest U.S. job data showed a rise of the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% in November. The greenback has been pulling back as traders braced for the last nonfarm payrolls of the year. Before the report, the market had priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut on December 18, but that probability has now climbed to 87%. The prevailing sentiment is that Fed officials are already inclined toward a rate cut, and it would take a much stronger report to change their stance. The market now expects 90 basis points of easing next year, up from the previous expectation of 82 basis points, offering fragile support to the dollar in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Oil stabilisation – WTI crude steadied around its 3-month low after the OPEC+ group which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia postponed its planned production increase amid sluggish global demand, notably due to China\u2019s economic struggle and competition from non-member producers like Brazil and Argentina. The recent lows also corresponds to the trough seen in December 2021, indicating the market\u2019s concern about the lingering supply and demand imbalance. Market participants may look to thread the needle with their year\u2019s end positioning as the price walks on thin ice.<\/span><\/p>

Trump effect – Bitcoin’s value soared past the $100,000 mark after Trump announced plans to nominate former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the regulatory body. Atkins is widely regarded as more cryptocurrency friendly than the incumbent Gary Gensler. The president-elect had earlier vowed to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital” and his celebration on social media with messages like “Congratulations Bitcoiners” and “You’re welcome!” would draw more public attention to the digital asset. Traders have started to bag some profits but sentiment supported by the trend remains overwhelmingly positive.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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29 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Final Push as Markets Look to Regain Volatility<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Calm before volatility –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Trading volumes have thinned around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday this week but market lethargy may give place to renewed volatility in a busy data-driven week. Investors are likely to take advantage of the last nonfarm payrolls on Friday and reallocate their books before going into the Christmas holiday season. Until then weak tech earnings and the Nvidia sell-off could continue to be the theme that has been driving major U.S. indices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Oil uncertainty –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Oil prices stabilise as traders look for signals from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on the 1st of December. The market widely expects production cuts from January. However, artificial restraints on supply may not suffice to lift depressed prices in the current environment. Global fundamentals remain uncertain at best as bidders may be reluctant to hold large positions into the new year with American protectionism looming as Trump is scheduled to retake the reins.<\/span><\/p>

Lost shine –\u00a0<\/span>Gold remains under pressure weighed down by the recent recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. Meanwhile physical investments in China, the precious metal’s No.1 consumer country, have tanked amid growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical friction with the West. The price is hovering above the $2600 mark and trying to find support and now the question is whether bullion\u2019s safe haven status would bring in more inflows in the weeks leading to the year\u2019s end.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Market Confidence Fuels Tech and Digital Assets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Arms race – Russia missile strikes on Ukraine in response to the use of Western made missiles by its neighbour have triggered another round of escalation in the 1000-day conflict. What worries traders is whether this could open doors for more unprecedented events in the months to come. Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen have held their ground and found renewed interests as market participants look to hedge their risk appetite.<\/p>\n

Under pressure – US indices are holding onto their gains as investors anticipate a 25 basis point cut by the Fed at its December meeting. High watermarks in US equities reflect the market\u2019s confidence in its economy, offering better yields in a lower interest rate environment as well as safety backed by the American government. Individual stocks have found a boost from bright quarterly results from the likes of Nvidia, furthering cementing the confidence, so much that even the news of a possible breakup of Alphabet, parent of Google by the US Department of Justice have left the market unfazed.<\/p>\n

To the moon – Bitcoin continues to stay well-supported as it pushes its way to the landmark $100,000. Fundamentally, expectations of a more friendly business environment with an end to scrutiny from US regulators, growing popularity in bitcoin ETFs as well as escalations in geopolitical events bringing in more flows are major tailwinds for the digital asset. Technically, the question is who dares to say \u2018this is good enough\u2019 and put their money where their mouth is by taking the other side of the trade. Until then the momentum may stay strong.<\/p>\n

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15 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Assets Push Forward as Trump Secures both Houses<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dream team momentum -The market is on its toes as President-elect Donald Trump taps into personal ties to shape the next government. His comeback may have a large impact as a mix of tax cuts, immigration control and trade tariffs could go through with the blessing of a Republican-controlled Congress. The US dollar\u2019s strength and overall volatility can barely hide expectations of a dramatic shift in US policies.<\/p>

Euro\u2019s struggle. – Whispers of parity are back in the market, a reminiscence of the energy crisis back in 2022. This time around, investors fear that Mr Trump will be back to take care of his unfinished business with more tariffs. On the ECB\u2019s monetary policy, faster interest rate cuts than in the United States would put the single currency under further pressure.<\/p>

Crypto president – Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $90,000 is a telltale sign that traders are embracing the upcoming US administration for the best, and potentially the worst. The crypto industry is betting on a friendlier regime to trigger a broader adoption, leading up to another round of bull market. Meanwhile, outperformance by digital gold compared to altcoins may suggest traders\u2019 hedging of possible escalation in geopolitical disputes.<\/p>

Tech optimism – Stock market sentiment remains risk-on as a lower interest rate environment compounds the prospect of Republicans\u2019 laissez-faire agenda with tax cuts and looser regulations. Options players are piling into riskier assets notably the technology sector which they believe could reap a massive windfall from Trump\u2019s victory, supporting the current rally.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Day After: Global Market Reactions to Trump\u2019s Victory<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Donald Trump’s confirmation as the next US president has boosted stocks and assets that are seen as favourable to his administration.\u00a0 His agenda is set to bolster traditional industries such as construction, infrastructure, and energy. The policies announced by Donald Trump during his campaign were generally seen as inflationary,\u00a0due to tariffs\u00a0and onshoring, pro-growth, and as adding to the already burgeoning federal deficit, thanks to proposed tax cuts. How these policies affect the economic backdrop is likely to be one key driver of US stock market returns in the next four years.<\/p>

In the US, stocks soared last night to record highs with the S&P 500 jumping 2.5% to close at 5,929.04, while the Dow Jones surged 3.6%, reaching 43,729.93. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite advanced 3% to 18,983.47. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.435% from 4.411% late on Tuesday.<\/p>

Stocks in Asia recovered from early losses after US stocks jumped to record levels as investors tried to assess the impact of Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House on the global economy. The Hang Seng climbed 2% in Hong Kong, and the Shanghai Composite was 2.6% up by the end of the session.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the Chinese government reported that exports jumped nearly 13% in October compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years. However, the Nikkei slipped 0.3% on the day in Japan, reflecting worries over the potential for a revival of trade tensions under a Trump administration.<\/p>

The FTSE 100 and European stocks pushed higher in the Thursday early morning session as the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0(BoE) is\u00a0expected to cut interest rates again at noon. Money markets are strongly betting on a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut \u2014 that the benchmark rate will fall from its\u00a0current level of 5%\u00a0to 4.75%. It is the first announcement since the UK government unveiled their budget last week and comes as CPI\u00a0inflation\u00a0and\u00a0wage growth\u00a0continue to cool.<\/p>

Traders are now turning their attention to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England\u2019s decisions on interest rates later today. The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates again this evening by 25 basis points, amid a moderating inflation rate and a softening labour market.<\/p>

However, analysts have warned that it is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and concerns that he might seek significant influence over the central banks\u2019 policy decisions, that will be the main driver in the global financial markets.<\/p>

The pound dived against the dollar, following Trump\u2019s\u00a0claimed victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. The pound\u2019s decline marks a significant sell-off as traders brace for a shift in US economic policy under the prospect of a second Trump administration. Yesterday the US dollar surged to its largest single-day gain since March 2020, climbing 1.5% against a basket of major currencies.<\/p>

Gold prices were lower as investors moved away from the safe haven and into assets that could benefit under the new Trump administration, with spot gold currently trading lower at $2,665.00 per ounce. The drop in gold signals a broader market reaction to the US presidential election, which is dominating investor sentiment this week.<\/p>

The Fed\u2019s outlook to be announced later today, could also influence the direction of gold in the coming weeks, as rising rates tend to weigh on the precious metal.<\/p>

Oil markets were pressured by the results from the US elections and the latest weekly US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, with Brent crude futures trading at $71.87 per barrel. Oil prices have shown a dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump\u2019s victory.<\/p>

A new Trump administration would favour domestic fossil fuel producers as he aims to enhance America’s energy security. Approximately two thirds of the exchange-traded fund iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IOGP.AS) is held in US-listed assets. Trump is also likely to prioritise increased domestic oil and gas production.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trading Trump (vs) Harris - Election Anxiety Spikes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The FTSE 100 and European stocks are showing a mixed picture on Monday as traders anxiously await the outcome of the US presidential election, as well as a decision on\u00a0UK interest rates\u00a0from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0on Thursday, which is expected to make a quarter-point cut for the second time this cycle, taking UK interest rates to 4.75%.<\/p>

The U.S. election could bring unprecedented market swings across various asset classes and will shape the direction of the global financial markets and geopolitics for the next four years, with potential policy changes impacting stocks, commodities, forex, and other assets. Historically, election uncertainty has led to extreme volatility. During the 2020 election, financial markets experienced a $5 trillion fluctuation in market value in the weeks preceding and following the election: the VIX (Volatility Index) jumped by over 50%, and global markets experienced turbulence throughout the election cycle.<\/p>

Traders around the globe, are closely watching as Kamala Harris, running for the Democratic Party, races against leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. The outcome of the election will define the policies of the next administration which would have a tremendous impact on economic trends, international trade, and market stability.<\/p>

The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges.<\/p>

This volatility may present both risks and opportunities in the trading environment, therefore it would be prudent for traders to keep their trading accounts sufficiently funded in advance. This will allow them to manage margin requirements effectively, capitalise on potential opportunities, and mitigate any market risks.<\/p>

Potential Implications and Market Reactions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The race remains neck-and-neck as we approach tomorrow\u2019s vote, and investors have been positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump.<\/p>

In the US, Trump would likely shake up the status quo far more significantly than Harris, who has served as President Joe Biden\u2019s vice president for the past four years.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s focus on fiscal expansion and tariffs which would is expected to trigger higher inflation and would have a strong influence in Treasury and FX markets, as well as risk-on in equity markets favouring US cyclicals. Tax cuts would also be expected as part of Trump\u2019s economic policy.<\/p>

In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump\u2019s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies. Markets are pricing in some of the risks associated with Trump returning to the White House, suggesting that a Harris victory would trigger a bullish move for emerging markets, while factoring in the likely impact of higher taxes on earnings and reinforcement of wider macro forces.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s tariff plans carry particular risks for China for levies of 60% or more, which will increase pressure on the Chinese economy while the government is already struggling to revive the faltering economy.<\/p>

Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, may also come under pressure with tariff increases. The Yuan\u2019s one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years last month.<\/p>

Developing nations such as South Korea and Taiwan, with high exposure to the US and strong reliance on Chinese inputs could also face pressures from such an escalating trade war, as they would be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s statements on the US commitment to alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and to Ukraine\u2019s efforts to defeat Russia, have weighed on local bonds of certain eastern European countries and lifted Ukraine\u2019s dollar debt on speculation that Trump\u2019s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.<\/p>

What if the Result\u00a0is Contested?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The counting of the votes may only be the start of a new process that financial markets will struggle to interpret.<\/p>

Markets are expected to be volatile not only on the night of the election, but potentially in the days or weeks to follow. Declarations and rumours around key swing states like Pennsylvania will be particularly important and algo-driven markets could be particularly sensitive to such risk.\u00a0<\/p>

The greatest risk for global markets to consider would be if the election result is bitterly contested afterwards by the \u2018losing\u2019 party. Because the polls remain so close, the election creates a great deal of uncertainty with traders trying to price for a binary outcome. Key policies, particularly around trade, tariffs and the outlook for the US debt, will be greatly affected by the outcome and so the results will drive price action.\u00a0<\/p>

The biggest uncertainty facing the market is if the result is contested. It took days to declare Biden officially the winner in the 2020 election, while Trump contested the result almost until the January inauguration. The highest risk is that neither side is willing to concede, leading to a high-stakes legal roller coaster, which could in theory last not days but weeks. This outcome has the largest potential for a negative risk catalyst in the global markets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Oil prices heading for their biggest weekly gains in over a year <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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04 October 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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After a night of intense air strikes by Israel on Beirut, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in today\u2019s session. Oil prices posted their biggest one-day rise in almost a year, surging by more than 5%.<\/p>

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to around $77.90 a barrel. Weekly prices have experienced their biggest weekly percentage point gain since early 2023. Traders are concerned that potential supply disruptions may occur after President Joe Biden suggested that American officials were \u201cdiscussing\u201d whether to support an Israeli attack on Iran\u2019s oil facilities.<\/p>

In other news around the world, traders are watching the US jobs report due to be released at 13:30 BST today. With inflation declining, the crucial parameter now is the job market. According to consensus estimates reported by Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to show 150,000 jobs were added last month up from 142,000 reported in August, while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2%.<\/p>

Traders are trying to forecast how aggressively the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts. In the above scenario, the Fed will probably cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, smaller than its half-point cut in September. In Asia, China\u2019s stimulus package announced recently, continued to support markets higher into Friday\u2019s trading, with the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closing the session 2% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also closed 0.2% higher this morning, following a volatile week of trading caused by central bank announcements.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Pound Rally Against US Dollar Continues ahead of Interest Rate Decisions.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The European markets as well as the FTSE 100 are on the rise today, as investors are focusing on key central bank decisions later in the week from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0and the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>

The US Federal Reserve is expected to move towards cutting interest rates more aggressively\u00a0as it meets today and tomorrow.<\/p>

A 25 basis-point reduction by the US Federal Reserve would be a pivotal move, as investors hope that the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth. A more aggressive 50 basis points cut on the other hand would be the biggest single rate cut in 16 years triggering concerns of economic trouble ahead.<\/p>

The likelihood of a 25 basis-point reduction fell to 37% from 50% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision this Thursday. The market expectations are leaning towards holding rates at their current level.<\/p>

The pound has rallied against the dollar ahead of these major interest rate decisions, with the US currency trading near its lowest levels of the year.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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12th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Returning to Global Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk appetite has returned to the markets after the world\u2019s largest technology companies made a bounce on Wall Street on Wednesday.<\/p>

Europe\u2019s Stoxx 600 index advanced by 1.2% yesterday, the most single day jump since mid-August, while Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.2%, treasuries were steady, and the dollar remained flat.<\/p>

In Asia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed the most in a month, supported by gains in the technology sector. In Japan, the Nikkei index reversed its seven-day losing streak, while the yen declined from its strongest level against the dollar since December.<\/p>

Traders are still focusing on interest rate developments, with the FTSE 100 and European stocks joining the global rally today, advancing in early trade ahead of an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank.<\/p>

US inflation data for August supported the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but fueled speculation that the move will be gradual.<\/p>

Market sentiment has been characterised by optimism that the Fed will drive the US economy to a soft landing and fear that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut rates. Swaps have now priced in a 25-basis point rate reduction next week, however there is an argument over the path for further reductions.<\/p>

Oil continues its gains from Wednesday as Hurricane Francine destroyed key oil-producing zones in the Gulf of Mexico triggering bearish bets, while Gold is still trading above $2,515 per ounce.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Global Stocks Tumble as Flight from Risk Continues<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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4th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A global flight from risk assets continues on Wednesday due to fears around the US economy and a sharp decline in US stocks especially in the big tech sector on Tuesday after the labour day holiday weekend.<\/p>

Traders are fearing additional swings, looking for clues on whether the US economy is threatened by a recession, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s next adjustments to its monetary policy.<\/p>

A US job openings report expected today will indicate whether there is further cooling in the labor market, marking a 5th<\/sup> consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. The market is shifting its focus from inflation to concerns over economic growth, causing turmoil in stocks and other risk assets.<\/p>

Traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing its policy in September by reducing rates by more than two full percentage points over the next 12 months, this is the steepest drop since the 1980s outside of a downturn. Furthermore, payrolls data is due on Friday and will be crucial in defining the magnitude of the initial rate cut.<\/p>

In currencies, the dollar snapped a five-day winning streak whilst the yen extended its gains.<\/p>

Oil dropped further after crashing to the lowest level this year, with Brent futures falling to around $73 a barrel due to growing concerns that weak demand and restored supplies from OPEC will create a new surplus.<\/p>

Gold futures are hovering above $2,515 per ounce, down from their all-time high last month but still up almost 22% year to date. The precious metal remains the traders\u2019 favourite hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, gaining additional support from expected Fed rate cuts later this month and ongoing EM central bank buying. Traders are pricing in a 31% probability of a 50-basis point cut instead of 25 basis points according to the CME FedWatch – CME Group<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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11th Sep 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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CPI Boss Fight: Will the Fed Swing 25 or 50?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market is fighting for control when the August CPI is released on Thursday. The two things that seem exciting about a Fed cut next Wednesday are the amount and the rhetoric. The Fed may still cut 25 basis points if the CPI runs hot, particularly in core services (shelter, transportation, medical; ex-energy services), but it will be more tough about what comes next. However, a cold print would intensify rumors of a 50 bps move.

Core: 3.1% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), headline 2.9% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), according to consensus. Composition is the trapdoor. From February to May, core services averaged 0.2% m\/m (~2.4% annualized); a 0.3% increase in August would raise the 3-month annualized pace to over 3.6%, which would feed concerns about “sticky inflation.” Indeed, companies are absorbing a portion of the tariff charge, lowering the prices of some commodities, and the PPI was unexpectedly lower. Wage pressure, however, is found in services inflation, which is also where the CPI index has significant weight.

Because of this, stocks feel both justified and jittery at record highs. Bulls claim that a weaker PPI combined with worsening labor data means that easing is likely. Bears counter: reducing sticky services could lead to stagflation. A hotter core is likely to rocket front-end yields, knock richly priced growth, and give the dollar a knee-jerk bounce (which some strategists would fade on labor concerns). Rate-sensitives and long duration are the pivot.

While gold hovers around records on cut hopes and oil slid as U.S. inventories built\u2014an economic cool-breeze tale that markets prefer to hear before CPI\u2014futures are green entering the print, aided by AI tailwinds (Oracle just staged a historic pop). As inflation turns out to be a little firmer than anticipated, the European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to hold, with both hawks and doves bolstering their cases but likely providing tight guidance.

Trader’s perspective (not advice): \u2022 Hot core (\u22650.3\u20130.4% m\/m): Front-end yields \u2191; 2025 cut route reduced; gold softens; risk-off wobble.
\u2022 Cool core (\u22640.2% m\/m): higher yields, risk-on, bigger-cut buzz, gold steady\/up, and dollar easing.
\u2022 Mixed: The Fed’s statement becomes the market’s metronome; composition comes before the headline.

In summary, the mix is more important than the level. Even if the initial cut comes on time next week, the glide path to easier policy becomes more difficult if that engine picks up speed again. Keep an eye on key services. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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27th August 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Wall Street is mesmerized by Nvidia, yet risks lurk in the background.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market’s fixation on one firm is overshadowing much larger threats that are simmering beneath the surface as Wall Street waits for Nvidia’s earnings.<\/p>

Nvidia is now more than just a stock to investors; it’s a gauge of the mood of the market. The chipmaker is now carrying the burden of an entire rally after reaching previously unheard-of heights on the artificial intelligence boom. Analysts and traders alike are keeping an eye on Nvidia to see if it can produce strong margins, rapid revenue growth, and evidence that the demand for AI-powered processors is still unquenchable on a global scale.<\/p>

The stakes are high: a beat might rekindle the exuberant momentum that has kept Wall Street afloat for months, while a failure on earnings or guidance could send shockwaves through equities. To put it briefly, Nvidia controls the market’s sentiment in addition to releasing financial data.<\/p>

However, a political tempest is brewing in Washington as Wall Street is enthralled by a single ticker sign. The independence of the U.S. central bank is being called into question by former President Donald Trump’s attempt to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Although the markets haven’t moved much, undermining the Fed could have significant effects on long-term interest rates, inflation, and the dollar.<\/p>

Main Street, meanwhile, is raising its own warnings. With more Americans reporting that finding a job is becoming more difficult and inflation forecasts gradually rising, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell in August. The forecast for the upcoming six months dropped to its lowest point in years, indicating that people are becoming increasingly concerned about the direction of the economy.<\/p>

Nvidia’s story may have enthralled Wall Street, but investors who overlook the political and economic undertones run the danger of being caught off guard. Sometimes, the shadows\u2014rather than the spotlight\u2014present the true threat.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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30 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Important Economic Events to Keep an Eye on This Week for Active Investors<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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There are a number of important macroeconomic events this week that might have a big impact on market sentiment and policy expectations. It will be essential for active investors to stay informed.<\/p>

Germany’s preliminary June CPI data, a crucial determinant of the ECB’s inflation outlook, is released on Monday. Additionally, the UK will release its Q1 national accounts, which will include capital flows from the banking sector and data on corporate investments.
China, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States will all release manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday. Given that growth forecasts are still shaky, these indicators will provide important information about the state of the global industrial economy.<\/p>

South Korea’s inflation figures and Eurozone unemployment data will be the main topics of discussion on Wednesday. A number of mid-sized businesses in the luxury and retail industries in Europe will release their earnings, giving an indication of consumer demand following the second quarter.<\/p>

Perhaps the most significant day of the week is Thursday. The focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls report (NFP). Expectations for the Fed’s next actions, and consequently the US currency and Treasury yields, could be directly impacted by any shocks in job creation, wage growth, or unemployment. Investors will also look for clues about upcoming rate decisions in the minutes of the ECB’s most recent meeting. Furthermore, considering the prominence of the service sector in developed economies, global services PMI numbers are due.<\/p>

Last but not least, Friday will be calmer because of the US Independence Day vacation, which usually lowers liquidity in international markets and could increase volatility elsewhere. However, further information about the state of the European economy will be provided by Germany’s industrial orders as well as EU housing and PPI data.<\/p>

In summary, traders are facing a high-stakes week as central bank narratives, employment, and inflation all play a role.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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23 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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As tensions in the Middle East worsen, oil prices rise, and markets are on edge.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran, which caused a dramatic increase in oil prices and heightened concerns about a bigger geopolitical crisis, global markets are on high alert. Oil futures have already jumped above $100, and some analysts have warned that prices might reach $130 or higher per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.<\/p>

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes, handling around 20% of the world’s oil traffic. Any disturbance would cause shockwaves in the energy markets, raise the price of gasoline globally, and further strain already precarious global supply systems.<\/p>

The stock markets are responding cautiously. Gold continues to be a reliable conventional safe haven during times of international unrest, while stock indices are declining as investors avoid risk. There are indications of technical weakness in the SP500, which could pave the way for another adjustment. In the meantime, institutional purchasing is fueling a spectacular bullish breakthrough in the oil markets. Although gold and bitcoin are still consolidating, they may rise quickly if tensions keep rising.<\/p>

Additionally, the dispute poses a threat of expanding beyond the current U.S.-Iran conflict. Potential cyberattacks, sabotage, and economic reprisal are causes for increasing anxiety. Global powers like China and Russia may try to safeguard their interests, while regional players like Israel, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are keeping a careful eye on things. The deputy director of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, made a bold statement after the U.S. strikes, saying that “several countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.” Russia has sent a strong message to Washington by formally denouncing the assaults as a flagrant breach of international law and pledging its support for Iran.<\/p>

Markets might collapse rapidly if Iran turns from threats to action. Investors and traders should prepare for high volatility.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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19 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Regional Conflict Between Israel and Iran Could Upend World Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Israeli-Iranian confrontation is much more than a regional geopolitical quarrel. If the situation worsens, a complicated network of economic concerns might jeopardize the stability of the world economy.<\/p>

Nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny passageway at the center of this threat. Even a little interruption may cause oil prices to rise sharply, possibly pushing crude well above $120 or even $150 per barrel. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, central banks are already having difficulty stabilizing prices, and this energy shock would swiftly translate into a fresh inflationary surge.<\/p>

Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be faced with a difficult choice in such a situation: either maintain high interest rates to fight inflation and run the risk of a catastrophic recession, or restore huge liquidity to the economy at the expense of undermining confidence in fiat currencies.<\/p>

There would probably be a period of intense volatility in the financial markets. Investors would rush into hard assets like gold, silver, commodities, and strategic real estate, while major stock indices might see severe corrections.<\/p>

This kind of crisis, however, has the potential to quicken a current trend: de-dollarization. Yuan or euros are already being used to settle some energy contracts. The U.S. dollar’s long-standing dominance would be called into question by a protracted crisis of confidence, which would have significant repercussions for the global monetary system.<\/p>

The systemic risks are real, but full-scale escalation is still preventable. A regional war can swiftly turn into a worldwide financial shock in the connected world of today.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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5 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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ECB Goes Loose as Global Trade Remains Uncertain<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Accommodative stance – The ECB’s eighth consecutive interest rate cut, down to 2%, signals an aggressive push to boost the bloc\u2019s economy amid lingering fallout from Trump’s trade war. With inflation now below the ECB\u2019s 2% target and core component showing signs of softening, the central bank is acting to ensure monetary conditions remain supportive. The cut had been anticipated by markets, but it underscores a broader shift toward policy easing as the ECB contends with external pressures, particularly from deteriorating global trade conditions and slower growth. Investors responded to the downward revision for 2026 growth with modest optimism and confidence that the ECB will remain accommodative. Expectations are now forming around a potential pause in July, and markets are likely to remain sensitive to future data releases, particularly if inflation pressures unexpectedly resurface or Trump\u2019s trade rhetoric escalates further.<\/span><\/p>

Jobs catalyst – U.S. stock indices edge higher as investors await the key non-farm payrolls report, in order to assess how Donald Trump’s trade policies are impacting the job market and the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate outlook. While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady this month, markets are pricing in at least two cuts by year-end. Despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, preferring to wait for more economic clarity amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have taken effect, with the threat of broader levies in July. Investors are now closely monitoring trade talks, particularly a potential call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.<\/p>

Supply expansion – Oil prices declined amid growing signs that Saudi Arabia is pushing for another increase in output, reinforcing market concerns over a potential supply glut in the second half of the year. The proposed increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day underscores a strategic shift toward defending market share rather than prioritising price stability. This comes as the kingdom aims to capitalise on seasonal peak demand during summer months. However, such a move also heightens risks of oversupply, especially with inventories already showing signs of building and global demand forecasts remaining vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties. A more aggressive supply expansion may exacerbate downward pressure on prices. Compounding the bearish sentiment, Saudi Aramco\u2019s price cut to Asia, though smaller than anticipated, signals weakening demand in key import markets.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fiscal Strains Boost Bitcoin At Expense of Commodities<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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New high – Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high above $111,000 on Thursday, extending its 2025 bull run even as U.S. equity markets pulled back. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to defy broader risk-off sentiment, driven by accelerating institutional inflows and growing regulatory clarity. Momentum has also been bolstered by progress on the regulatory front. The GENIUS Act \u2013 a bill designed to provide a framework for stablecoin regulation \u2013 cleared a key procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate this week. Market participants and crypto advocates view it as a positive step toward removing uncertainty in the digital asset space. With regulatory tailwinds, strong inflows, and sustained institutional confidence, bitcoin’s rise is increasingly being seen not just as speculative mania, but as a maturing asset class solidifying its role in the financial system.<\/p>

Output hike – Oil prices fell, pressured by expectations of increased output from major producers and rising concerns about global demand amid U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The sell-off was triggered by reports from Bloomberg that OPEC+ is considering a third consecutive production hike, with one proposal involving a July increase of 411,000 barrels per day \u2013 triple the group’s previously planned rise. The potential supply boost comes as oil markets already grapple with subdued demand signals, amplifying downside risks. In parallel, investors are growing uneasy over mounting U.S. debt. A tax-cut and spending bill through Congress have added to fears about fiscal sustainability, shaking broader market confidence. All eyes now turn to OPEC+\u2019s June 1 meeting for clarity on the cartel\u2019s next move.<\/p>

Critical juncture – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax-and-spending bill by a single vote, enacting much of Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda while intensifying fears over the nation\u2019s ballooning debt. The legislation is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. Markets reacted with mixed signals. U.S. stock futures edged higher after the bill\u2019s passage, but Treasury yields climbed, reflecting investor anxiety about government borrowing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faced fresh selling pressure as global confidence in American fiscal discipline continues to erode, aggravated by Trump\u2019s unpredictable tariff policy and mounting international skepticism toward the stability of U.S. assets. As political divisions deepen and long-term fiscal reform remains elusive, the market sees the U.S. finding itself at a critical juncture.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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15 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Uncertainty Reigns as Geopolitical Talks Unfold<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed optimism – Bitcoin traded higher helped by renewed institutional flows back into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The rebound in ETF activity came as inflation worries eased and trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of de-escalation. Lower-than-expected CPI helped bolster risk appetite and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates later this year. Despite the improved backdrop, market uncertainty, especially over global trade dynamics, continues to cap gains. Traders are expected to watch Friday\u2019s producer price data and Fed commentary closely for further cues.<\/p>

Fragile peace – Ukraine and Russia may hold long-awaited talks in Turkey today, but uncertainty shrouds the summit amid conflicting signals and a lack of high-level participation. Despite calling for the talks himself, Russian President Putin will not be attending. Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he will make a final decision on whether to attend after meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. US President Trump, who had signalled openness to adjusting his Middle East visit to join the summit, will also be absent. With global pressure mounting, both US and European leaders have warned that Moscow faces fresh sanctions if it fails to engage seriously and agree to a ceasefire.<\/span><\/p>

Supply concern – Oil prices fell amid rising expectations of a US-Iran nuclear agreement that could lead to sanctions relief and increased Iranian oil exports. President Trump signalled that a deal was \u201cvery close,\u201d with Tehran having \u201csort of\u201d agreed to the terms. An Iranian official also indicated willingness to proceed in exchange for sanctions relief, following four rounds of talks in Oman. Despite this diplomatic progress, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions targeting Iran\u2019s missile production and oil export networks, underscoring the fragile nature of the ongoing negotiations. Market sentiment was further pressured by a surprise rise in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a build of 3.5 million barrels last week, contrary to analyst expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw, fuelling concerns of oversupply.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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08 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Art of Deal Strikes Again<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Suspense deal – Gold prices slipped as optimism over a potential US-UK trade deal weighed on safe-haven demand. The move followed Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent agreement, with a press briefing scheduled for 2 p.m. GMT. The prospect of easing trade tensions has led investors to reduce gold exposure, favoring risk assets instead. Recent gains in gold, which recently hit record highs above $3,500\/oz, have largely been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive tariff rhetoric. However, the appetite for the metal appears to be softening as signs of diplomatic progress emerge. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar added further pressure, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Market sentiment remains cautious, though. While investor interest in gold remains historically elevated, demand from the jewellery sector has faltered, limiting upward momentum. Looking ahead, traders will watch for confirmation of the US-UK deal and any developments in US-China negotiations. If diplomacy gains traction, gold may trend lower in the near term, while a breakdown could trigger another spike in safe-haven flows.<\/p>

Timid recovery – Oil prices rebounded following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a forthcoming trade deal\u2014widely expected to be with the UK\u2014boosting market sentiment amid lingering concerns over global demand. The move offers a political win for Trump ahead of crucial US-China trade talks and has helped lift crude off recent lows sparked by tariffs and OPEC+ supply adjustments. While oil has faced downward pressure in recent weeks due to fears of a global slowdown and increased output from OPEC+ members, the prospect of a new trade agreement and falling US crude inventories is offering some near-term support with stockpiles dropping by 2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, partially offsetting Tuesday\u2019s bearish API report showing a 4.49 million barrel build.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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01 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Makes Return<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk on – Gold prices continued their decline midweek as investors scaled back safe-haven exposure amid renewed signs of US-China trade engagement. The pullback marks gold\u2019s third straight session of losses, driven by optimism that fresh talks could ease tariff tensions. Traders will be watching for confirmation of any formal dialogue between Washington and Beijing before the weekend. Furthermore, sentiment has been lifted by Trump’s executive orders easing auto tariff pressure and remarks pointing to possible deals with India, South Korea, and Japan. Looking ahead, with geopolitical risk premia unwinding and trade dialogue showing signs of progress, the precious metal may face further downside pressure near term. However, any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the market mood.<\/p>

Tech support – Stronger-than-expected Q1 results from Microsoft and Meta lifted sentiment across the tech sector, offsetting concerns about a potential advertising slowdown linked to tariff uncertainty. Microsoft delivered robust earnings, with EPS of $3.46 on $70B in revenue, surpassing forecasts. Notably, Azure revenue rose on the back of AI demand, slightly above expectations. Commercial cloud revenue saw continued enterprise demand despite macro headwinds. Meta also outperformed, posting EPS of $6.43 and $42.3B in revenue, well above estimates. Guidance for Q2 revenue came in strong at $42.5B\u2013$45.5B, despite management acknowledging ongoing tariff-driven ad market concerns. The dual beats and solid outlooks from two Magnificent 7 heavyweights provided a tailwind for the Nasdaq index.<\/p>

New deal – The newly signed US-Ukraine agreement granting Washington a share of profits from Ukraine’s future mineral and energy sales reflects a shift toward longer-term strategic and economic cooperation. While not a formal security guarantee, the deal gives the US tangible stakes in Ukraine\u2019s post-war recovery and resource access, helping to justify continued US support amid political debates over aid. The deal may bolster sentiment in energy and mining equities tied to US interests, particularly those with exposure to lithium, rare earths, or natural gas. However, uncertainty around control of resource-rich territories and absence of binding security commitments could temper investor enthusiasm in the near term.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Central Banks Go Dovish Over Clouded Economic Outlook<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Grim outlook – Markets remain nervous as the U.S. central bank struck a cautious note about the growth outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is caught between a rock and a hard place as tariffs are likely to stoke inflation. Speaking publicly for the first time since President Trump paused parts of his sweeping tariff plan, the Fed boss signalled a wait-and-see approach to interest rates, saying the Fed needs more clarity on the economy\u2019s trajectory. However, he warned that the ongoing trade turmoil could derail the central bank\u2019s inflation and employment goals. The uncertainty has bruised dollar-denominated assets across the board with the greenback slumping to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. U.S. stocks and bonds also have seen sharp outflows in recent weeks.<\/p>

Cloudy sky – The euro held steady as the ECB slashed interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its key deposit rate down to 2.25% as trade tensions rattle the eurozone\u2019s economic outlook. The move, widely expected by markets, follows growing uncertainty tied to U.S.-led tariff hikes that have roiled global commerce. In a stark policy statement, the central bank flagged “rising trade tensions” as a key driver of deteriorating growth prospects, with President Christine Lagarde warning of “exceptional uncertainty” ahead. Europe now faces a sharp uptick in U.S. tariffs\u2014climbing from 3% to roughly 13%\u2014creating what Lagarde called a \u201cnegative demand shock.\u201d While many tariffs have been paused, the lingering threat of escalation has cast a shadow over inflation expectations and economic momentum.<\/p>

Mounting pressure – While the week wraps early for commodities ahead of Good Friday, bullish drivers have outweighed bearish signals. Crude prices are set to notch a weekly gain, buoyed by fresh U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms trading Iranian oil. The move adds to mounting pressure on Tehran and raises the prospect of tighter global supply, especially as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions through economic means. The International Energy Agency also added upward momentum by trimming its forecast for global supply growth. In its latest monthly report, the agency cut its forecast for this year by 260,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of just 1.2 million bpd. The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated output from the U.S. and Venezuela, adding to market concerns over tighter supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Trade Policy Keeps Investors on Edge<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tariff Reloaded – Markets staged a dramatic rebound at Thursday\u2019s open after President Donald Trump made a surprise reversal on tariff policy, temporarily slashing new import duties to 10% for most U.S. trade partners over a 90-day period. The sharp pivot marked a stark contrast to his earlier hardline stance and triggered a powerful rally across Wall Street. The S&P 500 soared in its third-biggest one-day gain since World War II, the Dow posted its strongest advance since the COVID crash of March 2020, and the Nasdaq exploded in its second-best session ever. Despite the relief rally, trade tensions remain high. The reciprocal tariffs Trump had long threatened officially came into effect, targeting nearly 90 countries. China was notably excluded from the temporary reprieve, with tariffs on Chinese goods escalating sharply after Beijing announced fresh duties on U.S. imports. The European Union also hit back, approving its first wave of countermeasures in response to the earlier U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs, signalling that the global trade skirmish is far from over.<\/p>

Empire Strikes Back – The escalating showdown has rattled all asset classes, stoking fears of a growth slowdown, rising inflation, and squeezed corporate earnings. Amid the mounting uncertainty, gold has seen a sharp rally, as investors seek safety in traditional havens. China has fired back once again at President Donald Trump\u2019s escalating tariff offensive, announcing a steep increase in duties on U.S. imports. Starting April 10, tariffs on American goods entering China will soar to 84%, up from the previous 34%, according to the latest statement from the Office of the Tariff Commission. The move comes in direct response to Washington\u2019s own overnight hike, which pushed tariffs on Chinese goods past the 100% mark. This tit-for-tat trade war is rapidly deepening, threatening to paralyse commerce between the world\u2019s two largest economies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

OPEC Strains – Oil prices remain fragile even though OPEC’s production slipped in March, just ahead of a planned output increase, as key members faced disruptions and mounting geopolitical pressure. Nigeria scaled back deliveries to domestic refineries, notably the Dangote facility, leading to a decline that offset stronger export volumes. Meanwhile, renewed efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to choke off oil flows from Iran and Venezuela contributed to further production drops from those nations. In total, output from Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each fell by around 50,000 barrels per day. Despite this, Nigeria remains slightly above its OPEC+ production target, with Gabon identified as the bloc\u2019s least compliant member. The latest figures highlight the fragile balance within OPEC+ as it begins to cautiously unwind some of its recent cuts. The full impact of the planned production hike may ultimately hinge on the success of Washington\u2019s push to curtail supplies from Tehran and Caracas.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets in Turmoil Amid Escalating Trade War<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Asian and European markets suffered a major blow as the fallout from President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariff announcements triggered a global sell-off. In Asia, Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index experienced a historic crash, while Taiwan\u2019s TAIEX tumbled to an all-time low in a dramatic market rout. The chaos spilled into Europe, where the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 opened sharply lower and Germany\u2019s DAX endured a full-blown bloodbath at the open. Although European markets have since clawed back some losses, volatility remains high as investors brace for more turbulence amid the escalating trade showdown.<\/span><\/p>

US futures are pointing to a rough start on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 expected to open down, reflecting deepening investor unease. Meanwhile, Brent Crude prices have slumped to their lowest level since April 2021, underscoring growing concerns over global demand. Even cryptocurrencies, often touted as alternatives to traditional finance, have been swept up in the turmoil. In a sell-off as widespread and intense as this, few risk assets are managing to escape the fallout unscathed.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitical and Trade Escalations Fuel Market Jitters<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Military Standoff – The U.S. is stepping up its military presence in the Middle East, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sending in extra warplanes for an ongoing bombing campaign in Yemen. The move adds more fuel to the fire in Washington\u2019s standoff with Iran, as Trump continues to push for nuclear negotiations\u2014using both tariffs and military threats as leverage. Over the weekend, Trump warned Tehran that more strikes (and even more tariffs) could be on the way if talks don\u2019t move forward. Iran, however, isn\u2019t budging. In a firm response via Oman, Tehran made it clear that it won\u2019t negotiate under pressure. With both sides digging in, tensions remain sky-high. Unless some behind-the-scenes diplomacy works its magic, we could be looking at more economic and military maneuvers, which would keep markets\u2014and the energy sector\u2014on edge.<\/p>

Trade Turmoil – Wednesday\u2019s much-anticipated tariff announcement couldn\u2019t come at a trickier time for the markets. Stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride for weeks, thanks to ever-changing trade policy chatter, and investors are still feeling pretty jittery. Unfortunately, it doesn\u2019t look like this latest move will do much to calm nerves. In fact, things might get even messier\u2014China, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly teaming up to hit back at Trump\u2019s tariff push. A coordinated counterstrike from these economic heavyweights could mean an extended trade skirmish, potentially tangling up supply chains and putting a damper on global growth. As traders sift through the details of this two-step tariff plan, all eyes will be on possible exemptions and any hints of a diplomatic breakthrough. And let\u2019s not forget the Fed\u2014already juggling economic curveballs, officials may have yet another headache if rising import costs start stoking inflation concerns.<\/span><\/p>

Oil Balancing – OPEC turned down the oil tap a little in March, trimming production by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it tried to keep supply in check before ramping things up again in May. According to Bloomberg\u2019s latest survey, the group\u2019s total output now stands at 27.43 million bpd, with members being reminded to stick to their quotas. This cut is all part of OPEC\u2019s ongoing effort to keep oil markets steady and prices supported, despite unpredictable demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still set to move forward with its planned production hikes, adding 138,000 bpd in May after a similar bump in April. As usual, traders will be keeping a close eye on OPEC\u2019s next moves, since oil price stability remains a delicate balancing act\u2014especially with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting demand trends in the mix.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Move on After Dovish Fed Decision<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Stay safe – The gold market remains in the upward direction, hovering near recent highs as the Federal Reserve maintains a neutral monetary policy stance\u2014despite raising its inflation outlook and trimming its growth forecast. As widely expected, the Fed held interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. However, policymakers provided little forward guidance, leaving markets guessing about the timing of future rate moves. The updated dot plot projections remained unchanged from December, showing rates ending the year at 3.9%, with further declines to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. While the central bank appears in no rush to cut rates, it is adopting a more measured approach toward its balance sheet\u2014adding another layer of complexity to the market\u2019s outlook.<\/span><\/p>

Stake high – Geopolitical stakes remain high in Ukraine with renewed airstrikes escalating tensions and fueling market uncertainty. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian sites, including hospitals, while suggesting that Putin has effectively dismissed a comprehensive ceasefire. The renewed hostilities come after Putin\u2019s recent conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, in which the Russian leader reportedly conditioned any ceasefire on the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. With no immediate resolution in sight, geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk factor for global markets, potentially triggering further volatility in energy prices, equities, and safe-haven assets.<\/p>

Caution ahead – The US dollar saw little bid after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and reaffirmed its projection for two rate cuts in 2024. While the central bank revised its economic outlook, some analysts interpreted the announcement as dovish, reinforcing expectations for eventual easing. Risk assets bounced back following the Fed\u2019s commitment to rate cuts, with equities gaining traction as investor sentiment improved. However, the greenback faced renewed pressure, reflecting shifting rate expectations. The updated forecasts indicate that policymakers remain cautious, aiming to balance inflation risks with economic stability, leaving markets closely watching the timing of the first rate cut.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Choose Flight to Safety<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Hold still – The British pound remains supported ahead of the Bank of England\u2019s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 20 March, where policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%. The central bank had previously cut rates by 25 basis points in February, but rising geopolitical risks and tightening global financial conditions have reinforced expectations of a pause. The impact of US trade policies, particularly Trump\u2019s tariff measures, has already pushed UK bond yields higher, contributing to a stronger pound. While domestic economic indicators remain mixed, the BoE appears reluctant to continue easing in an environment where external shocks could sustain inflationary pressures. Markets will be watching for any forward guidance that could shape expectations for the BoE\u2019s next policy move, which is likely to influence sterling\u2019s trajectory in the near term.<\/span><\/p>

Hard hit – Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off this week as investors repriced risk in response to growing concerns over US economic stability. Even President Trump\u2019s economic team has acknowledged potential turbulence ahead, a shift that has fuelled risk aversion across asset classes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4%, while the S&P 500 extended its recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite suffered the most significant decline, plunging 4.5%. The tech sector led the decline, with the “Magnificent Seven” stocks driving the sell-off. The pullback reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, compounded by Trump\u2019s aggressive trade policies. The US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations remain unresolved, keeping markets on edge as investors assess potential tariff impacts on corporate earnings and economic growth.<\/p>

New high – Gold prices have staged a strong recovery, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid ongoing market volatility and geopolitical risks. Despite a slight cooling in inflation pressures, the latest US CPI data failed to alleviate broader recession fears. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of 0.3% and down from 0.5% in January. Although gold experienced a sharp decline at the end of February\u2014dropping over $130 to touch $2,833\u2014technical support at key moving averages provided a floor for prices, leading to a swift rebound above $2,900. This resilience suggests that bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants continuing to hedge against economic uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Retreat as Geopolitics Takes Over Monetary Policy<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Rally on hold – Markets are on edge as investors weigh the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on major US trading partners. The new measures\u201425% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a sharp increase in China duties to 20%\u2014went into effect on Tuesday. Canada wasted no time hitting back with its own round of immediate tariffs on US imports, while China responded with a 15% levy on American farm products like chicken and pork, set to take effect on March 10. However, Beijing’s relatively measured response left some analysts speculating that there\u2019s still room for negotiation with Washington. With trade tensions heating up, investors are bracing for potential market turbulence in the days ahead. The S&P 500 has tanked to its November lows just above the 5700 mark. Any major escalation in the trade spat could spark a deeper correction in the coming weeks.<\/span><\/p>

Geopolitical chessboard – Gold prices are taking a breather as traders lock in some profits after a strong recovery earlier this week. The price action is seemingly trying to hold onto its bullish momentum. Fundamental-wise, safe-haven demand continues to underpin gold, fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index this week. Adding to the global economic mix, China\u2019s National People’s Congress kicked off its annual session by reaffirming its 5% growth target for 2025, most likely as a defiant signal to Mr Trump\u2019s aggressive foreign policy. On the eastern front, Trump claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had expressed gratitude for U.S. support and signalled a willingness to sign a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral rights. Mixed statements such as this add yet another layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical chess match.<\/span><\/p>

Swift comeback – The euro flexed its muscles against most major currencies after the European Central Bank\u2019s latest interest rate move. As expected, the central bank trimmed rates by 25 basis points. But what really caught the market\u2019s attention was Christine Lagarde\u2019s tone during the press conference. Rather than signaling a dovish pivot, the ECB president struck a more hawkish note, stressing that future rate cuts would depend on incoming data. That cautious stance gave the euro a solid lift, as traders recalibrated their expectations for her next moves. Adding fuel to the rally, the euro is also buoyed by optimism over Europe’s growth following Germany’s proposal for a massive \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund. The plan is seen as a potential counterweight to global trade tensions, offering a boost to the region\u2019s economic outlook. The bullish news compound the bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar which stumbled across the board, dragged down by mounting concerns over the impact of tariffs on inflation and broader economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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28 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Jitters as Trump Goes Against Rest of the World<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cautious approach – Markets are gaining confidence as investors digest Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings, which reassured them about AI growth despite initial concerns over DeepSeek and weakening demand. While the company\u2019s profit outlook initially sparked some hesitation on Wall Street, Nvidia\u2019s stock rebounded after an early dip. At the same time, traders are closely watching President Trump\u2019s latest tariff threats, which have added to existing economic jitters. On Wednesday, he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union and reinstate paused duties on Canada and Mexico. However, the lack of clear details left markets guessing about the timeline and potential impact. The S&P 500 is trying to squeeze out modest gains the latest session, in an attempt to end its five-day streak of losses.<\/span><\/p>

Bouncing back – The euro-dollar exchange rate has pulled back to its mid-February lows around 1.0400 as the US Dollar remains strong amid a risk-off mood. Still, caution might be warranted as the remarkable strength of the US dollar in recent months has been challenged by a string of underwhelming economic reports\u2014ranging from a dip in consumer confidence to sluggish retail sales and weak consumer sentiment\u2014has shaken markets and fuelled concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors are now weighing whether these signals point to a temporary slowdown or a more persistent challenge ahead. Nevertheless, the greenback could benefit from erratic tariff decisions by Donald Trump against European and Japanese imports, making it the least vulnerable of the majors out there.<\/span><\/p>

Wild ride – Bitcoin\u2019s wild ride in its 6-figure valuation took a sharp turn downward as the digital gold plunged to its lowest level since November, dragging the broader crypto market down with it and erasing nearly half a trillion dollars in value. After soaring past $108,000 last month\u2014coinciding with Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration and his self-proclaimed status as the \u201cBitcoin President\u201d\u2014BTC is struggling to stay above $85,000. The selloff has been partly linked to growing investor frustration over Trump\u2019s unfulfilled promises nearly a month into his term, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. On a more technical level, expiring bitcoin options sitting in crypto exchanges, worth an estimated $3.9 billion, could expire out of the money, as most positions were set at higher price levels, further exacerbating market volatility. The crypto market also took another hit after a massive hack on the Bybit platform, described as the \u201cbiggest digital heist ever.\u201d Hackers managed to steal around $1.5 billion by gaining control of an Ethereum wallet on the Dubai-based exchange. The shock of the breach, combined with Bitcoin\u2019s price collapse, has sent ripples through the industry, intensifying concerns over security vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Unfettered Risk Appetite Keeps Brewing<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Safe bet – Sustained demand for gold keeps the chart trajectory upward as investors weigh monetary policy against geopolitical winds. Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period. This could discourage traders from making new bets, creating a headwind for the non-yielding metal. However, a renewed decline in US Treasury bond yields is keeping dollar bulls on the back foot, providing further support for gold prices. More importantly, the broader fundamentals still favour an upward trend for bullion, keeping the metal\u2019s two-month rally intact. Gold’s bullish momentum is fuelled by concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could spark a global trade war, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.<\/span><\/p>

Tables turned – The S&P 500 is inching up in a timid manner as market participants fret that a peace talk between the US and Russia without Ukraine could signal a dramatic shift in US foreign policy. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Donald Trump reached new heights after the latter took to social media to mock Zelensky, calling him a \u201cdictator without elections.\u201d Zelensky fired back, accusing Trump of falling for Russian disinformation regarding the war in Ukraine. The heated exchange followed a controversial meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war\u2014without Ukraine at the table. After the meeting, Trump suggested Ukraine had initiated the conflict, prompting a swift and sharp rebuttal from Zelensky. The rhetoric highlights the risk of the US pulling the plug on Kyiv\u2019s war effort, alienating its European allies in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Still hodling – Bitcoin continues to defy concerns from the Federal Reserve\u2019s latest meeting minutes, which signalled officials remain hesitant to cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed pointed to trade policies under the Trump administration as a potential obstacle to controlling inflation. Despite this cautious stance, Bitcoin continued its rally, holding steady as investors shrugged off rate uncertainty and focused on the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price tends to move in tandem with interest rate expectations because lower rates mean more liquidity in the market, making speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Added uncertainty from the Ukraine geopolitical twist might have convinced more investors to pour into the digital gold.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ukraine Optimism Offsets Trade Worries<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Inflation still hot – The much-anticipated U.S. inflation figure came out hotter than expected, throwing a wrench into hopes for near-term rate cuts. January\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.9%. The \u201ccore\u201d CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in even stronger at 3.3% versus the anticipated 3.1%\u2014marking the hottest inflation reading in months. These numbers bolster the case for monetary policy hawks who argue the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, prioritising the fight against inflation. However, President Trump took to social media, pushing back and insisting the U.S. needs lower interest rates.\u00a0<\/span>The U.S. dollar index initially spiked on the inflation report but later gave up gains to trade lower. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.65% following the data, keeping limited support to the greenback.<\/span><\/p>

Stabilisation factor – The oil price slump gained momentum as President Donald Trump took his first major step toward brokering an end to Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, just weeks after his inauguration. Trump took to social media to announce that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations immediately, adding that he would be calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to inform him of the conversation. A potential ceasefire could further weigh on oil prices if Trump pushes to roll back sanctions on Russia\u2019s energy sector. On a more fundamental level, the market\u2019s depressed sentiment has been fuelled by rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling that the Fed isn\u2019t rushing to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity and weaken oil demand.<\/span><\/p>

Steady climb – Wall Street reacted to the latest American CPI data with a knee-jerk selloff, but S&P 500 has found support and is still consolidating near its recent highs. A key factor? Reports that President Trump had a “productive” phone call with Russian President Putin about ending the Russia-Ukraine war, offering investors a glimmer of optimism, which would offset concerns with rising global trade tension, notably with the new administration\u2019s reciprocal tariffs. On the corporate side, the fourth-quarter earnings season rolls on. So far, more than 69% of S&P 500 companies have already released their results, and the majority are delivering pleasant surprises\u2014over 75% have topped Wall Street\u2019s forecasts, according to FactSet.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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7 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trade Spat Casts Shadow Over Sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Record high – Gold prices surged to yet another all-time high in this week\u2019s trading, driven by strong safe-haven demand as investors flock to the yellow metal amid rising uncertainty. Market nerves remain on edge as President Trump\u2019s unpredictable and potentially disruptive policy moves keep traders guessing. Meanwhile, China-U.S. trade tensions are heating up, with both nations escalating tariffs and taking further hostile business actions against each other this week. The EU may not be spared either after Trump doubled down on his plan to hike tariffs on the block, adding another layer of uncertainty to global trade dynamics. Experts fret that this \u201celevated trade policy uncertainty\u201d could drag on economic growth in the coming months, primarily by dampening business investment and weakening market confidence. Goldman Sachs has warned that the eurozone economy could suffer a \u201csizable hit to activity\u201d from the rise in trade tensions. With geopolitical and economic uncertainty mounting, gold continues its record-breaking rally, proving once again that when uncertainty reigns, gold shines.<\/p>

Mixed feelings – U.S. stocks have recouped their recent losses as they strive to hold onto this year\u2019s limited gains. While earnings from Alphabet and AMD fell short of expectations, Big Tech found support thanks to a strong rally in Nvidia. Alphabet\u2019s stock took a hit, sliding nearly 7%, after its fourth-quarter cloud revenue came in below estimates. The shortfall raised concerns that the company’s aggressive AI investments may take longer than expected to pay off. However, Nvidia emerged as a winner, climbing more than 5% as investors bet that the chipmaker could benefit from the ongoing AI spending spree. Overall, a retreat of the 10-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since December 2024 further added support to the market\u2019s rebound.<\/span><\/p>

Sluggish demand – Crude oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels of the year as fears of weakening demand rattled investors. The drop comes after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports, while U.S. stockpiles climbed for the second straight week. WTI crude hit its lowest point since December 31, 2024, as tensions between the top two consumers escalated. With China\u2014the world\u2019s largest oil importer\u2014facing economic headwinds, concerns are mounting over a potential slowdown in global energy demand. On Tuesday, China\u2019s State Council Tariff Commission announced a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with a 10% duty on American crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles, set to take effect next week. Meanwhile, fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing fears of weakening demand and adding further pressure to oil markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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31 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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AI Race and Safe Haven in Tandem<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tech correction – US tech stocks stabilised after plunging on Monday due to the sudden rise of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) app DeepSeek. The open source solution sent chipmaker Nvidia into a nosedive, triggering a broader selloff across the market. The turbulence followed DeepSeek\u2019s claim that its AI model was developed at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, prompting investors to rapidly reassess their bets on AI and the ROI on the costly infrastructure, and casting uncertainty over America\u2019s AI dominance. President Donald Trump called the moment \u201ca wake-up call\u201d for the US tech industry while downplaying concerns over the breakthrough, affirming that the US will remain a leading force in AI. For traders following the price action, unless the Nasdaq sinks below its 2-month lows around 20600 the index is merely consolidating near its historic high. The market\u2019s eventual resilience would prove the optimism surrounding AI investments that has fuelled much of the US stock market\u2019s surge over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>

ECB easing – The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its fifth rate cut on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points as it walks a tightrope between rising inflation and sluggish growth. After months of cooling, inflation in the eurozone is heating up again, hitting 2.4% in December – its third straight increase – just as the effects of cheaper energy start to fade. At the same time, the region\u2019s economy is stuck in neutral. Fresh data showed zero growth in the final quarter of 2024, falling short of economists\u2019 modest 0.1% forecast and following a 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. Commenting on the latest move, ECB President Christine Lagarde didn\u2019t sugarcoat the situation, admitting that the euro area economy is \u201cset to remain weak in the near term.\u201d In other words, while inflation is picking up, growth is taking a nap – leaving the ECB with the tricky job of keeping both in check. FX-wise, the single currency is far from being out of the woods as the US Fed stayed put with its interest rates unchanged, broadening the differential between the two economic entities.<\/span><\/p>

Shining again – Gold is back on its feet after dragging its feet for the past three months. The price has surged to a new all-time fuelled by strong safe-haven demand and technical buying. Investor jitters over the new US administration\u2019s trade and foreign policies – especially the potential for fresh tariffs – are keeping the marketplace on edge. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting on Wednesday with a clear signal: interest rates are staying unchanged for the foreseeable future. Policymakers acknowledged that \u201cinflation remains somewhat elevated,\u201d but Chair Jerome Powell downplayed any shift in stance, brushing off the change in wording as mere \u201clanguage clean-up.\u201d Powell steered clear of commenting on how President Trump\u2019s policies might influence the Fed\u2019s decisions. Markets, in turn, took the Fed\u2019s statement and Powell\u2019s press conference in stride, showing little reaction.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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24 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trump 2.0 May Complicate Fed Policy Course<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Technical recovery – The euro\u2019s current rebound is likely to be due to profit-taking after it hit a 26-month low earlier this year. General sentiment remains downbeat as the ECB keeps pushing in the loosening direction while the Fed is taking their feet off the pedal. President Christine Lagarde and other senior officials expressed support for additional rate cuts, potentially weakening the shared currency in the short term. Markets have already priced in another 25bp cut next Thursday, the fifth of the easing cycle, with expectations that interest rates will drop to 2% by year-end. Adding insult to injury would be the looming U.S. tariffs championed by Trump 2.0 elevating the risk of higher inflation in a fragile economy. Despite Lagarde\u2019s reassurance that the central bank is \u201cnot overly concerned\u201d about external factors, the market always finds a way to play in a cynical and pragmatic way and may keep the lid on the exchange rate.<\/p>

Verbal escalation – Gold is surfing on renewed geopolitical tensions following Mr Trump\u2019s inauguration. Stakes in the eastern front have been raised as the new U.S. president looks to boast his \u2018art of the deal\u2019 by settling the war in Ukraine in a swift manner. He delivered on his own social media platform Truth Social this week an ultimatum to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin saying that Russia should strike a deal or face even tougher economic consequences. Warnings of extending sanctions on all Russian exports to the United States and secondary penalties for nations conducting business with Moscow may push the latter to a corner if a deal fails to materialise, exacerbating the divide between the East and the West. The precious metal\u2019s solid run lately in spite of the dollar\u2019s strength signals growing demand for its safe haven status.<\/span><\/p>

Clash of the titans – The U.S. dollar has given back its recent gains as traders await a new catalyst from the central bank\u2019s interest rate decision next week. To spice things up, Powell & Co\u2019s cautious stance puts the Federal Reserve on a potential collision course with the new assertive president. Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs in a significant manner. As far as the market is concerned, the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25-4.5% next week, in the wake of three consecutive cuts since September. However, policymakers have adopted a more conservative approach for the year especially as Mr Trump\u2019s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes, and tighten immigration policies could complicate efforts to lower inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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UK Worries Weigh on Cable<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mini crisis – The pound has plunged to its lowest level in over a year, while UK borrowing costs have reached a 16-year high. The latest bond market sell-off reflects investors\u2019 growing concerns over UK assets and most importantly the contrasting signal between higher gilt yields and a falling currency shows investors\u2019 doubt over the country\u2019s economic outlook and the health of its public finances. The market turmoil has added pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faces increasing scrutiny, made an uncommon move by issuing a public statement for the second consecutive night, emphasising her \u201ciron grip\u201d on public finances. But despite government efforts to stabilise the markets, borrowing costs continue to climb. Addressing an urgent question in the House of Commons, Treasury Minister Darren Jones assured there was “no need for an emergency intervention” in financial markets. However, market participants still have the memory of the mini-budget crisis under the former prime minister Liz Truss in September 2022.<\/p>

Seasonal demand – Brent crude is staging a steady recovery to its 3-month high as the market demand has shifted its focus to colder weather than the last two winters, in both Europe and the United States, which could boost consumption of heating oil. A stronger U.S. dollar and an unexpected rise in U.S. stockpiles have not deterred buyers from shying away, with technical buying-the-dips compounding the seasonal factor. There are high hopes that the recent weak CPI print in China would spur more stimulus to tackle the country\u2019s chronic economic headache. In the meantime, a surge in travel across China ahead of the Lunar New Year has improved demand expectations, adding to rationales that would help the price stabilise in the near term.<\/p>

Bullish consolidation – The December U.S. jobs report was a blowout for the outgoing administration with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The print was a confirmation that would lessen the worry about the impact of high interest rates on the job market. While the market participants await further rejuvenation of the economy under Trump 2.0, the earnings season is kicking off next week with Q4 and full-year results from Wall Street\u2019s big banks. Investors anticipate impressive numbers as trading volumes have significantly exceeded typical fourth-quarter levels across all asset classes, fuelled by a growing participation from retail traders amid a bull run in both stock and cryptocurrency markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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3 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Investors Remain Confident about U.S. Growth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Parity in sight – The market is waiting for fresh catalysts in the first week of 2025 and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls might just give participants enough a reason to stay alert. A strong reading could be the straw that broke the euro\u2019s back as the single currency is inching towards the parity threshold, last seen in November 2022. The market consensus is that Trump\u2019s policies will sustain support for the greenback, as tax reliefs will put upward pressure on inflation and make further interest rate cuts less easy to justify, while tariffs against the eurozone would be seen as rubbing salt in the wound, undermining its growth outlook.\u00a0<\/p>

Steady recovery – Gold is striving for a comeback after it stabilised around its recent low of $2,600. The precious metal gains strength thanks to its safe-haven appeal, as investors turn their attention to President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s upcoming administration, set to begin on January 20. Anticipated policies from Trump, including higher import tariffs and lower taxes, are expected to benefit gold. More specifically, elevated tariffs could spark a global trade war, while reduced taxes may increase inflationary pressures in the United States. Gold often thrives in times of economic uncertainty as a safer asset and performs well during periods of rising inflation, as investors use it to hedge against price increases. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields fall to approximately 4.5%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, enhancing their attractiveness.<\/p>

Hesitant start – Stocks began January with a volatile trading session as investors locked in profits from notable 2024 winners like Apple and Tesla. The much-anticipated \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally, which typically boosts stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, failed to materialize as the market preferred the certainty of gains other than the promise of higher watermarks, leaving the S&P 500 with four straight days of losses into the year\u2019s end\u2014its first such streak since 1966. Still there is high hope that the rally will stay put as pro-growth and inflationary policies in the U.S. may keep fuelling the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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20 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fed Pours Cold Water Before Christmas<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed pressure – The euro is hovering near its 4-week low as traders price in a potential acceleration in the interest rate differential across the Atlantic. The ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place after its U.S. counterpart adopted a hawkish stance in the last meeting. In the meantime, inflation in the eurozone has become steady though not subdued with the November reading coming in below expectations at 2.2%. The market expects the central bank to stay the course on reducing borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate growth. While the Fed might hold back from another increase in January 2025, the ECB is expected to reduce interest rates at every meeting until June 2025, leaving the single currency struggle against other majors.<\/span><\/p>

Bullion dilemma – On the one hand, the prospect of lower global interest rates would make the non-yielding metal more appealing by lowering the cost of opportunity. On the other, a relatively strong U.S. economy and an unusually hawkish Fed might keep Treasury yields high, leaving gold in the shadows. How far the retracement may go would reflect bids on the mighty dollar as its recovery across the board so far has put the precious metal under pressure. The price action is consolidating as liquidity starts to dry out going into Christmas, but it would be too soon to call for a bearish reversal.<\/span><\/p>

Close call – Stock markets saw sharp pullbacks after the Federal Reserve commented on a \u2018closer call\u2019 on its loosening policy. As widely anticipated, the U.S. central bank lowered its key interest rate this Wednesday by 25 basis points, the third consecutive cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022. However, policymakers struck a cautionary note on their next move. Inflation has been holding steadily above target against the backdrop of uncertain economic growth on a global macro level, prompting the Fed to slow down on its monetary easing path, with indications that there probably would be only two small cuts in 2025. The decision has given risk assets such as tech stocks which have been front-running the yield curve a reason to take a breather, sending the S&P and Nasdaq indices off their recent peaks.<\/span><\/p>

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13 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Anticipating Another U.S. Rate Cut<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar recovery – The U.S. dollar is bouncing back across the board as traders reposition ahead of the last Federal Reverse rate decision of the year. The market overwhelmingly anticipates an additional 25-basis-point rate cut in the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. However the persistence of sticky inflation might put the brakes on the pace of future rate cuts, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England might trim their respective rates faster in the face of stalling economies. The prospect of this differential could prove particularly beneficial for the greenback.\u00a0<\/p>

Gold consolidation – Bullion has pulled back from its 3-week high as the market digests a crucial regime change in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad dynasty last weekend left a void in an increasingly turbulent region and exposed Iran, its former ally, prompting traders to ponder major stakeholders\u2019, namely the U.S. and Russia and their proxies\u2019 next move on the geopolitical chessboard. As a result, heightened uncertainty may keep safe haven seekers busy as the new year could reserve additional surprises. In the meantime, news of physical buying by the People\u2019s Bank of China may offer further support.<\/span><\/p>

S&P high watermark – The U.S. index is still holding on to its all-time high as investors bet on a downward trajectory of the interest rates. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October’s 2.6% annual increase, but in line with economists’ forecasts. Participants in the rally have so far shrugged off economists\u2019 view of Trump’s proposed policies\u2014such as imposing high tariffs on imports, cutting corporate taxes, and restricting immigration\u2014as potentially inflationary. The optimism may live on as long as evidence shows a lack of an upside surprise in inflation data.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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06 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Job Report Sends U.S. Dollar into Retreat<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar pullback – The latest U.S. job data showed a rise of the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% in November. The greenback has been pulling back as traders braced for the last nonfarm payrolls of the year. Before the report, the market had priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut on December 18, but that probability has now climbed to 87%. The prevailing sentiment is that Fed officials are already inclined toward a rate cut, and it would take a much stronger report to change their stance. The market now expects 90 basis points of easing next year, up from the previous expectation of 82 basis points, offering fragile support to the dollar in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Oil stabilisation – WTI crude steadied around its 3-month low after the OPEC+ group which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia postponed its planned production increase amid sluggish global demand, notably due to China\u2019s economic struggle and competition from non-member producers like Brazil and Argentina. The recent lows also corresponds to the trough seen in December 2021, indicating the market\u2019s concern about the lingering supply and demand imbalance. Market participants may look to thread the needle with their year\u2019s end positioning as the price walks on thin ice.<\/span><\/p>

Trump effect – Bitcoin’s value soared past the $100,000 mark after Trump announced plans to nominate former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the regulatory body. Atkins is widely regarded as more cryptocurrency friendly than the incumbent Gary Gensler. The president-elect had earlier vowed to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital” and his celebration on social media with messages like “Congratulations Bitcoiners” and “You’re welcome!” would draw more public attention to the digital asset. Traders have started to bag some profits but sentiment supported by the trend remains overwhelmingly positive.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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29 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Final Push as Markets Look to Regain Volatility<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Calm before volatility –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Trading volumes have thinned around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday this week but market lethargy may give place to renewed volatility in a busy data-driven week. Investors are likely to take advantage of the last nonfarm payrolls on Friday and reallocate their books before going into the Christmas holiday season. Until then weak tech earnings and the Nvidia sell-off could continue to be the theme that has been driving major U.S. indices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Oil uncertainty –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Oil prices stabilise as traders look for signals from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on the 1st of December. The market widely expects production cuts from January. However, artificial restraints on supply may not suffice to lift depressed prices in the current environment. Global fundamentals remain uncertain at best as bidders may be reluctant to hold large positions into the new year with American protectionism looming as Trump is scheduled to retake the reins.<\/span><\/p>

Lost shine –\u00a0<\/span>Gold remains under pressure weighed down by the recent recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. Meanwhile physical investments in China, the precious metal’s No.1 consumer country, have tanked amid growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical friction with the West. The price is hovering above the $2600 mark and trying to find support and now the question is whether bullion\u2019s safe haven status would bring in more inflows in the weeks leading to the year\u2019s end.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Market Confidence Fuels Tech and Digital Assets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Arms race – Russia missile strikes on Ukraine in response to the use of Western made missiles by its neighbour have triggered another round of escalation in the 1000-day conflict. What worries traders is whether this could open doors for more unprecedented events in the months to come. Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen have held their ground and found renewed interests as market participants look to hedge their risk appetite.<\/p>\n

Under pressure – US indices are holding onto their gains as investors anticipate a 25 basis point cut by the Fed at its December meeting. High watermarks in US equities reflect the market\u2019s confidence in its economy, offering better yields in a lower interest rate environment as well as safety backed by the American government. Individual stocks have found a boost from bright quarterly results from the likes of Nvidia, furthering cementing the confidence, so much that even the news of a possible breakup of Alphabet, parent of Google by the US Department of Justice have left the market unfazed.<\/p>\n

To the moon – Bitcoin continues to stay well-supported as it pushes its way to the landmark $100,000. Fundamentally, expectations of a more friendly business environment with an end to scrutiny from US regulators, growing popularity in bitcoin ETFs as well as escalations in geopolitical events bringing in more flows are major tailwinds for the digital asset. Technically, the question is who dares to say \u2018this is good enough\u2019 and put their money where their mouth is by taking the other side of the trade. Until then the momentum may stay strong.<\/p>\n

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15 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Assets Push Forward as Trump Secures both Houses<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dream team momentum -The market is on its toes as President-elect Donald Trump taps into personal ties to shape the next government. His comeback may have a large impact as a mix of tax cuts, immigration control and trade tariffs could go through with the blessing of a Republican-controlled Congress. The US dollar\u2019s strength and overall volatility can barely hide expectations of a dramatic shift in US policies.<\/p>

Euro\u2019s struggle. – Whispers of parity are back in the market, a reminiscence of the energy crisis back in 2022. This time around, investors fear that Mr Trump will be back to take care of his unfinished business with more tariffs. On the ECB\u2019s monetary policy, faster interest rate cuts than in the United States would put the single currency under further pressure.<\/p>

Crypto president – Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $90,000 is a telltale sign that traders are embracing the upcoming US administration for the best, and potentially the worst. The crypto industry is betting on a friendlier regime to trigger a broader adoption, leading up to another round of bull market. Meanwhile, outperformance by digital gold compared to altcoins may suggest traders\u2019 hedging of possible escalation in geopolitical disputes.<\/p>

Tech optimism – Stock market sentiment remains risk-on as a lower interest rate environment compounds the prospect of Republicans\u2019 laissez-faire agenda with tax cuts and looser regulations. Options players are piling into riskier assets notably the technology sector which they believe could reap a massive windfall from Trump\u2019s victory, supporting the current rally.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Day After: Global Market Reactions to Trump\u2019s Victory<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Donald Trump’s confirmation as the next US president has boosted stocks and assets that are seen as favourable to his administration.\u00a0 His agenda is set to bolster traditional industries such as construction, infrastructure, and energy. The policies announced by Donald Trump during his campaign were generally seen as inflationary,\u00a0due to tariffs\u00a0and onshoring, pro-growth, and as adding to the already burgeoning federal deficit, thanks to proposed tax cuts. How these policies affect the economic backdrop is likely to be one key driver of US stock market returns in the next four years.<\/p>

In the US, stocks soared last night to record highs with the S&P 500 jumping 2.5% to close at 5,929.04, while the Dow Jones surged 3.6%, reaching 43,729.93. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite advanced 3% to 18,983.47. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.435% from 4.411% late on Tuesday.<\/p>

Stocks in Asia recovered from early losses after US stocks jumped to record levels as investors tried to assess the impact of Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House on the global economy. The Hang Seng climbed 2% in Hong Kong, and the Shanghai Composite was 2.6% up by the end of the session.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the Chinese government reported that exports jumped nearly 13% in October compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years. However, the Nikkei slipped 0.3% on the day in Japan, reflecting worries over the potential for a revival of trade tensions under a Trump administration.<\/p>

The FTSE 100 and European stocks pushed higher in the Thursday early morning session as the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0(BoE) is\u00a0expected to cut interest rates again at noon. Money markets are strongly betting on a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut \u2014 that the benchmark rate will fall from its\u00a0current level of 5%\u00a0to 4.75%. It is the first announcement since the UK government unveiled their budget last week and comes as CPI\u00a0inflation\u00a0and\u00a0wage growth\u00a0continue to cool.<\/p>

Traders are now turning their attention to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England\u2019s decisions on interest rates later today. The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates again this evening by 25 basis points, amid a moderating inflation rate and a softening labour market.<\/p>

However, analysts have warned that it is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and concerns that he might seek significant influence over the central banks\u2019 policy decisions, that will be the main driver in the global financial markets.<\/p>

The pound dived against the dollar, following Trump\u2019s\u00a0claimed victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. The pound\u2019s decline marks a significant sell-off as traders brace for a shift in US economic policy under the prospect of a second Trump administration. Yesterday the US dollar surged to its largest single-day gain since March 2020, climbing 1.5% against a basket of major currencies.<\/p>

Gold prices were lower as investors moved away from the safe haven and into assets that could benefit under the new Trump administration, with spot gold currently trading lower at $2,665.00 per ounce. The drop in gold signals a broader market reaction to the US presidential election, which is dominating investor sentiment this week.<\/p>

The Fed\u2019s outlook to be announced later today, could also influence the direction of gold in the coming weeks, as rising rates tend to weigh on the precious metal.<\/p>

Oil markets were pressured by the results from the US elections and the latest weekly US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, with Brent crude futures trading at $71.87 per barrel. Oil prices have shown a dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump\u2019s victory.<\/p>

A new Trump administration would favour domestic fossil fuel producers as he aims to enhance America’s energy security. Approximately two thirds of the exchange-traded fund iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IOGP.AS) is held in US-listed assets. Trump is also likely to prioritise increased domestic oil and gas production.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trading Trump (vs) Harris - Election Anxiety Spikes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The FTSE 100 and European stocks are showing a mixed picture on Monday as traders anxiously await the outcome of the US presidential election, as well as a decision on\u00a0UK interest rates\u00a0from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0on Thursday, which is expected to make a quarter-point cut for the second time this cycle, taking UK interest rates to 4.75%.<\/p>

The U.S. election could bring unprecedented market swings across various asset classes and will shape the direction of the global financial markets and geopolitics for the next four years, with potential policy changes impacting stocks, commodities, forex, and other assets. Historically, election uncertainty has led to extreme volatility. During the 2020 election, financial markets experienced a $5 trillion fluctuation in market value in the weeks preceding and following the election: the VIX (Volatility Index) jumped by over 50%, and global markets experienced turbulence throughout the election cycle.<\/p>

Traders around the globe, are closely watching as Kamala Harris, running for the Democratic Party, races against leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. The outcome of the election will define the policies of the next administration which would have a tremendous impact on economic trends, international trade, and market stability.<\/p>

The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges.<\/p>

This volatility may present both risks and opportunities in the trading environment, therefore it would be prudent for traders to keep their trading accounts sufficiently funded in advance. This will allow them to manage margin requirements effectively, capitalise on potential opportunities, and mitigate any market risks.<\/p>

Potential Implications and Market Reactions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The race remains neck-and-neck as we approach tomorrow\u2019s vote, and investors have been positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump.<\/p>

In the US, Trump would likely shake up the status quo far more significantly than Harris, who has served as President Joe Biden\u2019s vice president for the past four years.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s focus on fiscal expansion and tariffs which would is expected to trigger higher inflation and would have a strong influence in Treasury and FX markets, as well as risk-on in equity markets favouring US cyclicals. Tax cuts would also be expected as part of Trump\u2019s economic policy.<\/p>

In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump\u2019s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies. Markets are pricing in some of the risks associated with Trump returning to the White House, suggesting that a Harris victory would trigger a bullish move for emerging markets, while factoring in the likely impact of higher taxes on earnings and reinforcement of wider macro forces.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s tariff plans carry particular risks for China for levies of 60% or more, which will increase pressure on the Chinese economy while the government is already struggling to revive the faltering economy.<\/p>

Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, may also come under pressure with tariff increases. The Yuan\u2019s one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years last month.<\/p>

Developing nations such as South Korea and Taiwan, with high exposure to the US and strong reliance on Chinese inputs could also face pressures from such an escalating trade war, as they would be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s statements on the US commitment to alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and to Ukraine\u2019s efforts to defeat Russia, have weighed on local bonds of certain eastern European countries and lifted Ukraine\u2019s dollar debt on speculation that Trump\u2019s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.<\/p>

What if the Result\u00a0is Contested?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The counting of the votes may only be the start of a new process that financial markets will struggle to interpret.<\/p>

Markets are expected to be volatile not only on the night of the election, but potentially in the days or weeks to follow. Declarations and rumours around key swing states like Pennsylvania will be particularly important and algo-driven markets could be particularly sensitive to such risk.\u00a0<\/p>

The greatest risk for global markets to consider would be if the election result is bitterly contested afterwards by the \u2018losing\u2019 party. Because the polls remain so close, the election creates a great deal of uncertainty with traders trying to price for a binary outcome. Key policies, particularly around trade, tariffs and the outlook for the US debt, will be greatly affected by the outcome and so the results will drive price action.\u00a0<\/p>

The biggest uncertainty facing the market is if the result is contested. It took days to declare Biden officially the winner in the 2020 election, while Trump contested the result almost until the January inauguration. The highest risk is that neither side is willing to concede, leading to a high-stakes legal roller coaster, which could in theory last not days but weeks. This outcome has the largest potential for a negative risk catalyst in the global markets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Oil prices heading for their biggest weekly gains in over a year <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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04 October 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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After a night of intense air strikes by Israel on Beirut, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in today\u2019s session. Oil prices posted their biggest one-day rise in almost a year, surging by more than 5%.<\/p>

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to around $77.90 a barrel. Weekly prices have experienced their biggest weekly percentage point gain since early 2023. Traders are concerned that potential supply disruptions may occur after President Joe Biden suggested that American officials were \u201cdiscussing\u201d whether to support an Israeli attack on Iran\u2019s oil facilities.<\/p>

In other news around the world, traders are watching the US jobs report due to be released at 13:30 BST today. With inflation declining, the crucial parameter now is the job market. According to consensus estimates reported by Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to show 150,000 jobs were added last month up from 142,000 reported in August, while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2%.<\/p>

Traders are trying to forecast how aggressively the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts. In the above scenario, the Fed will probably cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, smaller than its half-point cut in September. In Asia, China\u2019s stimulus package announced recently, continued to support markets higher into Friday\u2019s trading, with the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closing the session 2% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also closed 0.2% higher this morning, following a volatile week of trading caused by central bank announcements.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Pound Rally Against US Dollar Continues ahead of Interest Rate Decisions.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The European markets as well as the FTSE 100 are on the rise today, as investors are focusing on key central bank decisions later in the week from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0and the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>

The US Federal Reserve is expected to move towards cutting interest rates more aggressively\u00a0as it meets today and tomorrow.<\/p>

A 25 basis-point reduction by the US Federal Reserve would be a pivotal move, as investors hope that the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth. A more aggressive 50 basis points cut on the other hand would be the biggest single rate cut in 16 years triggering concerns of economic trouble ahead.<\/p>

The likelihood of a 25 basis-point reduction fell to 37% from 50% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision this Thursday. The market expectations are leaning towards holding rates at their current level.<\/p>

The pound has rallied against the dollar ahead of these major interest rate decisions, with the US currency trading near its lowest levels of the year.<\/p>

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12th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Returning to Global Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk appetite has returned to the markets after the world\u2019s largest technology companies made a bounce on Wall Street on Wednesday.<\/p>

Europe\u2019s Stoxx 600 index advanced by 1.2% yesterday, the most single day jump since mid-August, while Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.2%, treasuries were steady, and the dollar remained flat.<\/p>

In Asia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed the most in a month, supported by gains in the technology sector. In Japan, the Nikkei index reversed its seven-day losing streak, while the yen declined from its strongest level against the dollar since December.<\/p>

Traders are still focusing on interest rate developments, with the FTSE 100 and European stocks joining the global rally today, advancing in early trade ahead of an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank.<\/p>

US inflation data for August supported the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but fueled speculation that the move will be gradual.<\/p>

Market sentiment has been characterised by optimism that the Fed will drive the US economy to a soft landing and fear that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut rates. Swaps have now priced in a 25-basis point rate reduction next week, however there is an argument over the path for further reductions.<\/p>

Oil continues its gains from Wednesday as Hurricane Francine destroyed key oil-producing zones in the Gulf of Mexico triggering bearish bets, while Gold is still trading above $2,515 per ounce.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Global Stocks Tumble as Flight from Risk Continues<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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4th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A global flight from risk assets continues on Wednesday due to fears around the US economy and a sharp decline in US stocks especially in the big tech sector on Tuesday after the labour day holiday weekend.<\/p>

Traders are fearing additional swings, looking for clues on whether the US economy is threatened by a recession, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s next adjustments to its monetary policy.<\/p>

A US job openings report expected today will indicate whether there is further cooling in the labor market, marking a 5th<\/sup> consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. The market is shifting its focus from inflation to concerns over economic growth, causing turmoil in stocks and other risk assets.<\/p>

Traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing its policy in September by reducing rates by more than two full percentage points over the next 12 months, this is the steepest drop since the 1980s outside of a downturn. Furthermore, payrolls data is due on Friday and will be crucial in defining the magnitude of the initial rate cut.<\/p>

In currencies, the dollar snapped a five-day winning streak whilst the yen extended its gains.<\/p>

Oil dropped further after crashing to the lowest level this year, with Brent futures falling to around $73 a barrel due to growing concerns that weak demand and restored supplies from OPEC will create a new surplus.<\/p>

Gold futures are hovering above $2,515 per ounce, down from their all-time high last month but still up almost 22% year to date. The precious metal remains the traders\u2019 favourite hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, gaining additional support from expected Fed rate cuts later this month and ongoing EM central bank buying. Traders are pricing in a 31% probability of a 50-basis point cut instead of 25 basis points according to the CME FedWatch – CME Group<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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11th Sep 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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CPI Boss Fight: Will the Fed Swing 25 or 50?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market is fighting for control when the August CPI is released on Thursday. The two things that seem exciting about a Fed cut next Wednesday are the amount and the rhetoric. The Fed may still cut 25 basis points if the CPI runs hot, particularly in core services (shelter, transportation, medical; ex-energy services), but it will be more tough about what comes next. However, a cold print would intensify rumors of a 50 bps move.

Core: 3.1% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), headline 2.9% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), according to consensus. Composition is the trapdoor. From February to May, core services averaged 0.2% m\/m (~2.4% annualized); a 0.3% increase in August would raise the 3-month annualized pace to over 3.6%, which would feed concerns about “sticky inflation.” Indeed, companies are absorbing a portion of the tariff charge, lowering the prices of some commodities, and the PPI was unexpectedly lower. Wage pressure, however, is found in services inflation, which is also where the CPI index has significant weight.

Because of this, stocks feel both justified and jittery at record highs. Bulls claim that a weaker PPI combined with worsening labor data means that easing is likely. Bears counter: reducing sticky services could lead to stagflation. A hotter core is likely to rocket front-end yields, knock richly priced growth, and give the dollar a knee-jerk bounce (which some strategists would fade on labor concerns). Rate-sensitives and long duration are the pivot.

While gold hovers around records on cut hopes and oil slid as U.S. inventories built\u2014an economic cool-breeze tale that markets prefer to hear before CPI\u2014futures are green entering the print, aided by AI tailwinds (Oracle just staged a historic pop). As inflation turns out to be a little firmer than anticipated, the European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to hold, with both hawks and doves bolstering their cases but likely providing tight guidance.

Trader’s perspective (not advice): \u2022 Hot core (\u22650.3\u20130.4% m\/m): Front-end yields \u2191; 2025 cut route reduced; gold softens; risk-off wobble.
\u2022 Cool core (\u22640.2% m\/m): higher yields, risk-on, bigger-cut buzz, gold steady\/up, and dollar easing.
\u2022 Mixed: The Fed’s statement becomes the market’s metronome; composition comes before the headline.

In summary, the mix is more important than the level. Even if the initial cut comes on time next week, the glide path to easier policy becomes more difficult if that engine picks up speed again. Keep an eye on key services. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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27th August 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Wall Street is mesmerized by Nvidia, yet risks lurk in the background.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market’s fixation on one firm is overshadowing much larger threats that are simmering beneath the surface as Wall Street waits for Nvidia’s earnings.<\/p>

Nvidia is now more than just a stock to investors; it’s a gauge of the mood of the market. The chipmaker is now carrying the burden of an entire rally after reaching previously unheard-of heights on the artificial intelligence boom. Analysts and traders alike are keeping an eye on Nvidia to see if it can produce strong margins, rapid revenue growth, and evidence that the demand for AI-powered processors is still unquenchable on a global scale.<\/p>

The stakes are high: a beat might rekindle the exuberant momentum that has kept Wall Street afloat for months, while a failure on earnings or guidance could send shockwaves through equities. To put it briefly, Nvidia controls the market’s sentiment in addition to releasing financial data.<\/p>

However, a political tempest is brewing in Washington as Wall Street is enthralled by a single ticker sign. The independence of the U.S. central bank is being called into question by former President Donald Trump’s attempt to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Although the markets haven’t moved much, undermining the Fed could have significant effects on long-term interest rates, inflation, and the dollar.<\/p>

Main Street, meanwhile, is raising its own warnings. With more Americans reporting that finding a job is becoming more difficult and inflation forecasts gradually rising, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell in August. The forecast for the upcoming six months dropped to its lowest point in years, indicating that people are becoming increasingly concerned about the direction of the economy.<\/p>

Nvidia’s story may have enthralled Wall Street, but investors who overlook the political and economic undertones run the danger of being caught off guard. Sometimes, the shadows\u2014rather than the spotlight\u2014present the true threat.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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30 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Important Economic Events to Keep an Eye on This Week for Active Investors<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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There are a number of important macroeconomic events this week that might have a big impact on market sentiment and policy expectations. It will be essential for active investors to stay informed.<\/p>

Germany’s preliminary June CPI data, a crucial determinant of the ECB’s inflation outlook, is released on Monday. Additionally, the UK will release its Q1 national accounts, which will include capital flows from the banking sector and data on corporate investments.
China, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States will all release manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday. Given that growth forecasts are still shaky, these indicators will provide important information about the state of the global industrial economy.<\/p>

South Korea’s inflation figures and Eurozone unemployment data will be the main topics of discussion on Wednesday. A number of mid-sized businesses in the luxury and retail industries in Europe will release their earnings, giving an indication of consumer demand following the second quarter.<\/p>

Perhaps the most significant day of the week is Thursday. The focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls report (NFP). Expectations for the Fed’s next actions, and consequently the US currency and Treasury yields, could be directly impacted by any shocks in job creation, wage growth, or unemployment. Investors will also look for clues about upcoming rate decisions in the minutes of the ECB’s most recent meeting. Furthermore, considering the prominence of the service sector in developed economies, global services PMI numbers are due.<\/p>

Last but not least, Friday will be calmer because of the US Independence Day vacation, which usually lowers liquidity in international markets and could increase volatility elsewhere. However, further information about the state of the European economy will be provided by Germany’s industrial orders as well as EU housing and PPI data.<\/p>

In summary, traders are facing a high-stakes week as central bank narratives, employment, and inflation all play a role.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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23 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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As tensions in the Middle East worsen, oil prices rise, and markets are on edge.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran, which caused a dramatic increase in oil prices and heightened concerns about a bigger geopolitical crisis, global markets are on high alert. Oil futures have already jumped above $100, and some analysts have warned that prices might reach $130 or higher per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.<\/p>

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes, handling around 20% of the world’s oil traffic. Any disturbance would cause shockwaves in the energy markets, raise the price of gasoline globally, and further strain already precarious global supply systems.<\/p>

The stock markets are responding cautiously. Gold continues to be a reliable conventional safe haven during times of international unrest, while stock indices are declining as investors avoid risk. There are indications of technical weakness in the SP500, which could pave the way for another adjustment. In the meantime, institutional purchasing is fueling a spectacular bullish breakthrough in the oil markets. Although gold and bitcoin are still consolidating, they may rise quickly if tensions keep rising.<\/p>

Additionally, the dispute poses a threat of expanding beyond the current U.S.-Iran conflict. Potential cyberattacks, sabotage, and economic reprisal are causes for increasing anxiety. Global powers like China and Russia may try to safeguard their interests, while regional players like Israel, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are keeping a careful eye on things. The deputy director of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, made a bold statement after the U.S. strikes, saying that “several countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.” Russia has sent a strong message to Washington by formally denouncing the assaults as a flagrant breach of international law and pledging its support for Iran.<\/p>

Markets might collapse rapidly if Iran turns from threats to action. Investors and traders should prepare for high volatility.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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19 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Regional Conflict Between Israel and Iran Could Upend World Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Israeli-Iranian confrontation is much more than a regional geopolitical quarrel. If the situation worsens, a complicated network of economic concerns might jeopardize the stability of the world economy.<\/p>

Nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny passageway at the center of this threat. Even a little interruption may cause oil prices to rise sharply, possibly pushing crude well above $120 or even $150 per barrel. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, central banks are already having difficulty stabilizing prices, and this energy shock would swiftly translate into a fresh inflationary surge.<\/p>

Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be faced with a difficult choice in such a situation: either maintain high interest rates to fight inflation and run the risk of a catastrophic recession, or restore huge liquidity to the economy at the expense of undermining confidence in fiat currencies.<\/p>

There would probably be a period of intense volatility in the financial markets. Investors would rush into hard assets like gold, silver, commodities, and strategic real estate, while major stock indices might see severe corrections.<\/p>

This kind of crisis, however, has the potential to quicken a current trend: de-dollarization. Yuan or euros are already being used to settle some energy contracts. The U.S. dollar’s long-standing dominance would be called into question by a protracted crisis of confidence, which would have significant repercussions for the global monetary system.<\/p>

The systemic risks are real, but full-scale escalation is still preventable. A regional war can swiftly turn into a worldwide financial shock in the connected world of today.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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5 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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ECB Goes Loose as Global Trade Remains Uncertain<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Accommodative stance – The ECB’s eighth consecutive interest rate cut, down to 2%, signals an aggressive push to boost the bloc\u2019s economy amid lingering fallout from Trump’s trade war. With inflation now below the ECB\u2019s 2% target and core component showing signs of softening, the central bank is acting to ensure monetary conditions remain supportive. The cut had been anticipated by markets, but it underscores a broader shift toward policy easing as the ECB contends with external pressures, particularly from deteriorating global trade conditions and slower growth. Investors responded to the downward revision for 2026 growth with modest optimism and confidence that the ECB will remain accommodative. Expectations are now forming around a potential pause in July, and markets are likely to remain sensitive to future data releases, particularly if inflation pressures unexpectedly resurface or Trump\u2019s trade rhetoric escalates further.<\/span><\/p>

Jobs catalyst – U.S. stock indices edge higher as investors await the key non-farm payrolls report, in order to assess how Donald Trump’s trade policies are impacting the job market and the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate outlook. While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady this month, markets are pricing in at least two cuts by year-end. Despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, preferring to wait for more economic clarity amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have taken effect, with the threat of broader levies in July. Investors are now closely monitoring trade talks, particularly a potential call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.<\/p>

Supply expansion – Oil prices declined amid growing signs that Saudi Arabia is pushing for another increase in output, reinforcing market concerns over a potential supply glut in the second half of the year. The proposed increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day underscores a strategic shift toward defending market share rather than prioritising price stability. This comes as the kingdom aims to capitalise on seasonal peak demand during summer months. However, such a move also heightens risks of oversupply, especially with inventories already showing signs of building and global demand forecasts remaining vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties. A more aggressive supply expansion may exacerbate downward pressure on prices. Compounding the bearish sentiment, Saudi Aramco\u2019s price cut to Asia, though smaller than anticipated, signals weakening demand in key import markets.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fiscal Strains Boost Bitcoin At Expense of Commodities<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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New high – Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high above $111,000 on Thursday, extending its 2025 bull run even as U.S. equity markets pulled back. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to defy broader risk-off sentiment, driven by accelerating institutional inflows and growing regulatory clarity. Momentum has also been bolstered by progress on the regulatory front. The GENIUS Act \u2013 a bill designed to provide a framework for stablecoin regulation \u2013 cleared a key procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate this week. Market participants and crypto advocates view it as a positive step toward removing uncertainty in the digital asset space. With regulatory tailwinds, strong inflows, and sustained institutional confidence, bitcoin’s rise is increasingly being seen not just as speculative mania, but as a maturing asset class solidifying its role in the financial system.<\/p>

Output hike – Oil prices fell, pressured by expectations of increased output from major producers and rising concerns about global demand amid U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The sell-off was triggered by reports from Bloomberg that OPEC+ is considering a third consecutive production hike, with one proposal involving a July increase of 411,000 barrels per day \u2013 triple the group’s previously planned rise. The potential supply boost comes as oil markets already grapple with subdued demand signals, amplifying downside risks. In parallel, investors are growing uneasy over mounting U.S. debt. A tax-cut and spending bill through Congress have added to fears about fiscal sustainability, shaking broader market confidence. All eyes now turn to OPEC+\u2019s June 1 meeting for clarity on the cartel\u2019s next move.<\/p>

Critical juncture – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax-and-spending bill by a single vote, enacting much of Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda while intensifying fears over the nation\u2019s ballooning debt. The legislation is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. Markets reacted with mixed signals. U.S. stock futures edged higher after the bill\u2019s passage, but Treasury yields climbed, reflecting investor anxiety about government borrowing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faced fresh selling pressure as global confidence in American fiscal discipline continues to erode, aggravated by Trump\u2019s unpredictable tariff policy and mounting international skepticism toward the stability of U.S. assets. As political divisions deepen and long-term fiscal reform remains elusive, the market sees the U.S. finding itself at a critical juncture.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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15 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Uncertainty Reigns as Geopolitical Talks Unfold<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed optimism – Bitcoin traded higher helped by renewed institutional flows back into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The rebound in ETF activity came as inflation worries eased and trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of de-escalation. Lower-than-expected CPI helped bolster risk appetite and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates later this year. Despite the improved backdrop, market uncertainty, especially over global trade dynamics, continues to cap gains. Traders are expected to watch Friday\u2019s producer price data and Fed commentary closely for further cues.<\/p>

Fragile peace – Ukraine and Russia may hold long-awaited talks in Turkey today, but uncertainty shrouds the summit amid conflicting signals and a lack of high-level participation. Despite calling for the talks himself, Russian President Putin will not be attending. Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he will make a final decision on whether to attend after meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. US President Trump, who had signalled openness to adjusting his Middle East visit to join the summit, will also be absent. With global pressure mounting, both US and European leaders have warned that Moscow faces fresh sanctions if it fails to engage seriously and agree to a ceasefire.<\/span><\/p>

Supply concern – Oil prices fell amid rising expectations of a US-Iran nuclear agreement that could lead to sanctions relief and increased Iranian oil exports. President Trump signalled that a deal was \u201cvery close,\u201d with Tehran having \u201csort of\u201d agreed to the terms. An Iranian official also indicated willingness to proceed in exchange for sanctions relief, following four rounds of talks in Oman. Despite this diplomatic progress, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions targeting Iran\u2019s missile production and oil export networks, underscoring the fragile nature of the ongoing negotiations. Market sentiment was further pressured by a surprise rise in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a build of 3.5 million barrels last week, contrary to analyst expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw, fuelling concerns of oversupply.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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08 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Art of Deal Strikes Again<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Suspense deal – Gold prices slipped as optimism over a potential US-UK trade deal weighed on safe-haven demand. The move followed Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent agreement, with a press briefing scheduled for 2 p.m. GMT. The prospect of easing trade tensions has led investors to reduce gold exposure, favoring risk assets instead. Recent gains in gold, which recently hit record highs above $3,500\/oz, have largely been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive tariff rhetoric. However, the appetite for the metal appears to be softening as signs of diplomatic progress emerge. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar added further pressure, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Market sentiment remains cautious, though. While investor interest in gold remains historically elevated, demand from the jewellery sector has faltered, limiting upward momentum. Looking ahead, traders will watch for confirmation of the US-UK deal and any developments in US-China negotiations. If diplomacy gains traction, gold may trend lower in the near term, while a breakdown could trigger another spike in safe-haven flows.<\/p>

Timid recovery – Oil prices rebounded following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a forthcoming trade deal\u2014widely expected to be with the UK\u2014boosting market sentiment amid lingering concerns over global demand. The move offers a political win for Trump ahead of crucial US-China trade talks and has helped lift crude off recent lows sparked by tariffs and OPEC+ supply adjustments. While oil has faced downward pressure in recent weeks due to fears of a global slowdown and increased output from OPEC+ members, the prospect of a new trade agreement and falling US crude inventories is offering some near-term support with stockpiles dropping by 2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, partially offsetting Tuesday\u2019s bearish API report showing a 4.49 million barrel build.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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01 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Makes Return<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk on – Gold prices continued their decline midweek as investors scaled back safe-haven exposure amid renewed signs of US-China trade engagement. The pullback marks gold\u2019s third straight session of losses, driven by optimism that fresh talks could ease tariff tensions. Traders will be watching for confirmation of any formal dialogue between Washington and Beijing before the weekend. Furthermore, sentiment has been lifted by Trump’s executive orders easing auto tariff pressure and remarks pointing to possible deals with India, South Korea, and Japan. Looking ahead, with geopolitical risk premia unwinding and trade dialogue showing signs of progress, the precious metal may face further downside pressure near term. However, any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the market mood.<\/p>

Tech support – Stronger-than-expected Q1 results from Microsoft and Meta lifted sentiment across the tech sector, offsetting concerns about a potential advertising slowdown linked to tariff uncertainty. Microsoft delivered robust earnings, with EPS of $3.46 on $70B in revenue, surpassing forecasts. Notably, Azure revenue rose on the back of AI demand, slightly above expectations. Commercial cloud revenue saw continued enterprise demand despite macro headwinds. Meta also outperformed, posting EPS of $6.43 and $42.3B in revenue, well above estimates. Guidance for Q2 revenue came in strong at $42.5B\u2013$45.5B, despite management acknowledging ongoing tariff-driven ad market concerns. The dual beats and solid outlooks from two Magnificent 7 heavyweights provided a tailwind for the Nasdaq index.<\/p>

New deal – The newly signed US-Ukraine agreement granting Washington a share of profits from Ukraine’s future mineral and energy sales reflects a shift toward longer-term strategic and economic cooperation. While not a formal security guarantee, the deal gives the US tangible stakes in Ukraine\u2019s post-war recovery and resource access, helping to justify continued US support amid political debates over aid. The deal may bolster sentiment in energy and mining equities tied to US interests, particularly those with exposure to lithium, rare earths, or natural gas. However, uncertainty around control of resource-rich territories and absence of binding security commitments could temper investor enthusiasm in the near term.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Central Banks Go Dovish Over Clouded Economic Outlook<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Grim outlook – Markets remain nervous as the U.S. central bank struck a cautious note about the growth outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is caught between a rock and a hard place as tariffs are likely to stoke inflation. Speaking publicly for the first time since President Trump paused parts of his sweeping tariff plan, the Fed boss signalled a wait-and-see approach to interest rates, saying the Fed needs more clarity on the economy\u2019s trajectory. However, he warned that the ongoing trade turmoil could derail the central bank\u2019s inflation and employment goals. The uncertainty has bruised dollar-denominated assets across the board with the greenback slumping to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. U.S. stocks and bonds also have seen sharp outflows in recent weeks.<\/p>

Cloudy sky – The euro held steady as the ECB slashed interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its key deposit rate down to 2.25% as trade tensions rattle the eurozone\u2019s economic outlook. The move, widely expected by markets, follows growing uncertainty tied to U.S.-led tariff hikes that have roiled global commerce. In a stark policy statement, the central bank flagged “rising trade tensions” as a key driver of deteriorating growth prospects, with President Christine Lagarde warning of “exceptional uncertainty” ahead. Europe now faces a sharp uptick in U.S. tariffs\u2014climbing from 3% to roughly 13%\u2014creating what Lagarde called a \u201cnegative demand shock.\u201d While many tariffs have been paused, the lingering threat of escalation has cast a shadow over inflation expectations and economic momentum.<\/p>

Mounting pressure – While the week wraps early for commodities ahead of Good Friday, bullish drivers have outweighed bearish signals. Crude prices are set to notch a weekly gain, buoyed by fresh U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms trading Iranian oil. The move adds to mounting pressure on Tehran and raises the prospect of tighter global supply, especially as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions through economic means. The International Energy Agency also added upward momentum by trimming its forecast for global supply growth. In its latest monthly report, the agency cut its forecast for this year by 260,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of just 1.2 million bpd. The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated output from the U.S. and Venezuela, adding to market concerns over tighter supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Trade Policy Keeps Investors on Edge<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tariff Reloaded – Markets staged a dramatic rebound at Thursday\u2019s open after President Donald Trump made a surprise reversal on tariff policy, temporarily slashing new import duties to 10% for most U.S. trade partners over a 90-day period. The sharp pivot marked a stark contrast to his earlier hardline stance and triggered a powerful rally across Wall Street. The S&P 500 soared in its third-biggest one-day gain since World War II, the Dow posted its strongest advance since the COVID crash of March 2020, and the Nasdaq exploded in its second-best session ever. Despite the relief rally, trade tensions remain high. The reciprocal tariffs Trump had long threatened officially came into effect, targeting nearly 90 countries. China was notably excluded from the temporary reprieve, with tariffs on Chinese goods escalating sharply after Beijing announced fresh duties on U.S. imports. The European Union also hit back, approving its first wave of countermeasures in response to the earlier U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs, signalling that the global trade skirmish is far from over.<\/p>

Empire Strikes Back – The escalating showdown has rattled all asset classes, stoking fears of a growth slowdown, rising inflation, and squeezed corporate earnings. Amid the mounting uncertainty, gold has seen a sharp rally, as investors seek safety in traditional havens. China has fired back once again at President Donald Trump\u2019s escalating tariff offensive, announcing a steep increase in duties on U.S. imports. Starting April 10, tariffs on American goods entering China will soar to 84%, up from the previous 34%, according to the latest statement from the Office of the Tariff Commission. The move comes in direct response to Washington\u2019s own overnight hike, which pushed tariffs on Chinese goods past the 100% mark. This tit-for-tat trade war is rapidly deepening, threatening to paralyse commerce between the world\u2019s two largest economies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

OPEC Strains – Oil prices remain fragile even though OPEC’s production slipped in March, just ahead of a planned output increase, as key members faced disruptions and mounting geopolitical pressure. Nigeria scaled back deliveries to domestic refineries, notably the Dangote facility, leading to a decline that offset stronger export volumes. Meanwhile, renewed efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to choke off oil flows from Iran and Venezuela contributed to further production drops from those nations. In total, output from Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each fell by around 50,000 barrels per day. Despite this, Nigeria remains slightly above its OPEC+ production target, with Gabon identified as the bloc\u2019s least compliant member. The latest figures highlight the fragile balance within OPEC+ as it begins to cautiously unwind some of its recent cuts. The full impact of the planned production hike may ultimately hinge on the success of Washington\u2019s push to curtail supplies from Tehran and Caracas.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets in Turmoil Amid Escalating Trade War<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Asian and European markets suffered a major blow as the fallout from President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariff announcements triggered a global sell-off. In Asia, Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index experienced a historic crash, while Taiwan\u2019s TAIEX tumbled to an all-time low in a dramatic market rout. The chaos spilled into Europe, where the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 opened sharply lower and Germany\u2019s DAX endured a full-blown bloodbath at the open. Although European markets have since clawed back some losses, volatility remains high as investors brace for more turbulence amid the escalating trade showdown.<\/span><\/p>

US futures are pointing to a rough start on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 expected to open down, reflecting deepening investor unease. Meanwhile, Brent Crude prices have slumped to their lowest level since April 2021, underscoring growing concerns over global demand. Even cryptocurrencies, often touted as alternatives to traditional finance, have been swept up in the turmoil. In a sell-off as widespread and intense as this, few risk assets are managing to escape the fallout unscathed.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitical and Trade Escalations Fuel Market Jitters<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Military Standoff – The U.S. is stepping up its military presence in the Middle East, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sending in extra warplanes for an ongoing bombing campaign in Yemen. The move adds more fuel to the fire in Washington\u2019s standoff with Iran, as Trump continues to push for nuclear negotiations\u2014using both tariffs and military threats as leverage. Over the weekend, Trump warned Tehran that more strikes (and even more tariffs) could be on the way if talks don\u2019t move forward. Iran, however, isn\u2019t budging. In a firm response via Oman, Tehran made it clear that it won\u2019t negotiate under pressure. With both sides digging in, tensions remain sky-high. Unless some behind-the-scenes diplomacy works its magic, we could be looking at more economic and military maneuvers, which would keep markets\u2014and the energy sector\u2014on edge.<\/p>

Trade Turmoil – Wednesday\u2019s much-anticipated tariff announcement couldn\u2019t come at a trickier time for the markets. Stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride for weeks, thanks to ever-changing trade policy chatter, and investors are still feeling pretty jittery. Unfortunately, it doesn\u2019t look like this latest move will do much to calm nerves. In fact, things might get even messier\u2014China, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly teaming up to hit back at Trump\u2019s tariff push. A coordinated counterstrike from these economic heavyweights could mean an extended trade skirmish, potentially tangling up supply chains and putting a damper on global growth. As traders sift through the details of this two-step tariff plan, all eyes will be on possible exemptions and any hints of a diplomatic breakthrough. And let\u2019s not forget the Fed\u2014already juggling economic curveballs, officials may have yet another headache if rising import costs start stoking inflation concerns.<\/span><\/p>

Oil Balancing – OPEC turned down the oil tap a little in March, trimming production by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it tried to keep supply in check before ramping things up again in May. According to Bloomberg\u2019s latest survey, the group\u2019s total output now stands at 27.43 million bpd, with members being reminded to stick to their quotas. This cut is all part of OPEC\u2019s ongoing effort to keep oil markets steady and prices supported, despite unpredictable demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still set to move forward with its planned production hikes, adding 138,000 bpd in May after a similar bump in April. As usual, traders will be keeping a close eye on OPEC\u2019s next moves, since oil price stability remains a delicate balancing act\u2014especially with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting demand trends in the mix.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Move on After Dovish Fed Decision<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Stay safe – The gold market remains in the upward direction, hovering near recent highs as the Federal Reserve maintains a neutral monetary policy stance\u2014despite raising its inflation outlook and trimming its growth forecast. As widely expected, the Fed held interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. However, policymakers provided little forward guidance, leaving markets guessing about the timing of future rate moves. The updated dot plot projections remained unchanged from December, showing rates ending the year at 3.9%, with further declines to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. While the central bank appears in no rush to cut rates, it is adopting a more measured approach toward its balance sheet\u2014adding another layer of complexity to the market\u2019s outlook.<\/span><\/p>

Stake high – Geopolitical stakes remain high in Ukraine with renewed airstrikes escalating tensions and fueling market uncertainty. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian sites, including hospitals, while suggesting that Putin has effectively dismissed a comprehensive ceasefire. The renewed hostilities come after Putin\u2019s recent conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, in which the Russian leader reportedly conditioned any ceasefire on the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. With no immediate resolution in sight, geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk factor for global markets, potentially triggering further volatility in energy prices, equities, and safe-haven assets.<\/p>

Caution ahead – The US dollar saw little bid after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and reaffirmed its projection for two rate cuts in 2024. While the central bank revised its economic outlook, some analysts interpreted the announcement as dovish, reinforcing expectations for eventual easing. Risk assets bounced back following the Fed\u2019s commitment to rate cuts, with equities gaining traction as investor sentiment improved. However, the greenback faced renewed pressure, reflecting shifting rate expectations. The updated forecasts indicate that policymakers remain cautious, aiming to balance inflation risks with economic stability, leaving markets closely watching the timing of the first rate cut.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Choose Flight to Safety<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Hold still – The British pound remains supported ahead of the Bank of England\u2019s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 20 March, where policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%. The central bank had previously cut rates by 25 basis points in February, but rising geopolitical risks and tightening global financial conditions have reinforced expectations of a pause. The impact of US trade policies, particularly Trump\u2019s tariff measures, has already pushed UK bond yields higher, contributing to a stronger pound. While domestic economic indicators remain mixed, the BoE appears reluctant to continue easing in an environment where external shocks could sustain inflationary pressures. Markets will be watching for any forward guidance that could shape expectations for the BoE\u2019s next policy move, which is likely to influence sterling\u2019s trajectory in the near term.<\/span><\/p>

Hard hit – Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off this week as investors repriced risk in response to growing concerns over US economic stability. Even President Trump\u2019s economic team has acknowledged potential turbulence ahead, a shift that has fuelled risk aversion across asset classes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4%, while the S&P 500 extended its recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite suffered the most significant decline, plunging 4.5%. The tech sector led the decline, with the “Magnificent Seven” stocks driving the sell-off. The pullback reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, compounded by Trump\u2019s aggressive trade policies. The US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations remain unresolved, keeping markets on edge as investors assess potential tariff impacts on corporate earnings and economic growth.<\/p>

New high – Gold prices have staged a strong recovery, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid ongoing market volatility and geopolitical risks. Despite a slight cooling in inflation pressures, the latest US CPI data failed to alleviate broader recession fears. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of 0.3% and down from 0.5% in January. Although gold experienced a sharp decline at the end of February\u2014dropping over $130 to touch $2,833\u2014technical support at key moving averages provided a floor for prices, leading to a swift rebound above $2,900. This resilience suggests that bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants continuing to hedge against economic uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Retreat as Geopolitics Takes Over Monetary Policy<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Rally on hold – Markets are on edge as investors weigh the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on major US trading partners. The new measures\u201425% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a sharp increase in China duties to 20%\u2014went into effect on Tuesday. Canada wasted no time hitting back with its own round of immediate tariffs on US imports, while China responded with a 15% levy on American farm products like chicken and pork, set to take effect on March 10. However, Beijing’s relatively measured response left some analysts speculating that there\u2019s still room for negotiation with Washington. With trade tensions heating up, investors are bracing for potential market turbulence in the days ahead. The S&P 500 has tanked to its November lows just above the 5700 mark. Any major escalation in the trade spat could spark a deeper correction in the coming weeks.<\/span><\/p>

Geopolitical chessboard – Gold prices are taking a breather as traders lock in some profits after a strong recovery earlier this week. The price action is seemingly trying to hold onto its bullish momentum. Fundamental-wise, safe-haven demand continues to underpin gold, fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index this week. Adding to the global economic mix, China\u2019s National People’s Congress kicked off its annual session by reaffirming its 5% growth target for 2025, most likely as a defiant signal to Mr Trump\u2019s aggressive foreign policy. On the eastern front, Trump claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had expressed gratitude for U.S. support and signalled a willingness to sign a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral rights. Mixed statements such as this add yet another layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical chess match.<\/span><\/p>

Swift comeback – The euro flexed its muscles against most major currencies after the European Central Bank\u2019s latest interest rate move. As expected, the central bank trimmed rates by 25 basis points. But what really caught the market\u2019s attention was Christine Lagarde\u2019s tone during the press conference. Rather than signaling a dovish pivot, the ECB president struck a more hawkish note, stressing that future rate cuts would depend on incoming data. That cautious stance gave the euro a solid lift, as traders recalibrated their expectations for her next moves. Adding fuel to the rally, the euro is also buoyed by optimism over Europe’s growth following Germany’s proposal for a massive \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund. The plan is seen as a potential counterweight to global trade tensions, offering a boost to the region\u2019s economic outlook. The bullish news compound the bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar which stumbled across the board, dragged down by mounting concerns over the impact of tariffs on inflation and broader economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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28 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Jitters as Trump Goes Against Rest of the World<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cautious approach – Markets are gaining confidence as investors digest Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings, which reassured them about AI growth despite initial concerns over DeepSeek and weakening demand. While the company\u2019s profit outlook initially sparked some hesitation on Wall Street, Nvidia\u2019s stock rebounded after an early dip. At the same time, traders are closely watching President Trump\u2019s latest tariff threats, which have added to existing economic jitters. On Wednesday, he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union and reinstate paused duties on Canada and Mexico. However, the lack of clear details left markets guessing about the timeline and potential impact. The S&P 500 is trying to squeeze out modest gains the latest session, in an attempt to end its five-day streak of losses.<\/span><\/p>

Bouncing back – The euro-dollar exchange rate has pulled back to its mid-February lows around 1.0400 as the US Dollar remains strong amid a risk-off mood. Still, caution might be warranted as the remarkable strength of the US dollar in recent months has been challenged by a string of underwhelming economic reports\u2014ranging from a dip in consumer confidence to sluggish retail sales and weak consumer sentiment\u2014has shaken markets and fuelled concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors are now weighing whether these signals point to a temporary slowdown or a more persistent challenge ahead. Nevertheless, the greenback could benefit from erratic tariff decisions by Donald Trump against European and Japanese imports, making it the least vulnerable of the majors out there.<\/span><\/p>

Wild ride – Bitcoin\u2019s wild ride in its 6-figure valuation took a sharp turn downward as the digital gold plunged to its lowest level since November, dragging the broader crypto market down with it and erasing nearly half a trillion dollars in value. After soaring past $108,000 last month\u2014coinciding with Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration and his self-proclaimed status as the \u201cBitcoin President\u201d\u2014BTC is struggling to stay above $85,000. The selloff has been partly linked to growing investor frustration over Trump\u2019s unfulfilled promises nearly a month into his term, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. On a more technical level, expiring bitcoin options sitting in crypto exchanges, worth an estimated $3.9 billion, could expire out of the money, as most positions were set at higher price levels, further exacerbating market volatility. The crypto market also took another hit after a massive hack on the Bybit platform, described as the \u201cbiggest digital heist ever.\u201d Hackers managed to steal around $1.5 billion by gaining control of an Ethereum wallet on the Dubai-based exchange. The shock of the breach, combined with Bitcoin\u2019s price collapse, has sent ripples through the industry, intensifying concerns over security vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Unfettered Risk Appetite Keeps Brewing<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Safe bet – Sustained demand for gold keeps the chart trajectory upward as investors weigh monetary policy against geopolitical winds. Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period. This could discourage traders from making new bets, creating a headwind for the non-yielding metal. However, a renewed decline in US Treasury bond yields is keeping dollar bulls on the back foot, providing further support for gold prices. More importantly, the broader fundamentals still favour an upward trend for bullion, keeping the metal\u2019s two-month rally intact. Gold’s bullish momentum is fuelled by concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could spark a global trade war, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.<\/span><\/p>

Tables turned – The S&P 500 is inching up in a timid manner as market participants fret that a peace talk between the US and Russia without Ukraine could signal a dramatic shift in US foreign policy. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Donald Trump reached new heights after the latter took to social media to mock Zelensky, calling him a \u201cdictator without elections.\u201d Zelensky fired back, accusing Trump of falling for Russian disinformation regarding the war in Ukraine. The heated exchange followed a controversial meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war\u2014without Ukraine at the table. After the meeting, Trump suggested Ukraine had initiated the conflict, prompting a swift and sharp rebuttal from Zelensky. The rhetoric highlights the risk of the US pulling the plug on Kyiv\u2019s war effort, alienating its European allies in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Still hodling – Bitcoin continues to defy concerns from the Federal Reserve\u2019s latest meeting minutes, which signalled officials remain hesitant to cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed pointed to trade policies under the Trump administration as a potential obstacle to controlling inflation. Despite this cautious stance, Bitcoin continued its rally, holding steady as investors shrugged off rate uncertainty and focused on the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price tends to move in tandem with interest rate expectations because lower rates mean more liquidity in the market, making speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Added uncertainty from the Ukraine geopolitical twist might have convinced more investors to pour into the digital gold.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ukraine Optimism Offsets Trade Worries<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Inflation still hot – The much-anticipated U.S. inflation figure came out hotter than expected, throwing a wrench into hopes for near-term rate cuts. January\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.9%. The \u201ccore\u201d CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in even stronger at 3.3% versus the anticipated 3.1%\u2014marking the hottest inflation reading in months. These numbers bolster the case for monetary policy hawks who argue the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, prioritising the fight against inflation. However, President Trump took to social media, pushing back and insisting the U.S. needs lower interest rates.\u00a0<\/span>The U.S. dollar index initially spiked on the inflation report but later gave up gains to trade lower. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.65% following the data, keeping limited support to the greenback.<\/span><\/p>

Stabilisation factor – The oil price slump gained momentum as President Donald Trump took his first major step toward brokering an end to Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, just weeks after his inauguration. Trump took to social media to announce that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations immediately, adding that he would be calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to inform him of the conversation. A potential ceasefire could further weigh on oil prices if Trump pushes to roll back sanctions on Russia\u2019s energy sector. On a more fundamental level, the market\u2019s depressed sentiment has been fuelled by rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling that the Fed isn\u2019t rushing to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity and weaken oil demand.<\/span><\/p>

Steady climb – Wall Street reacted to the latest American CPI data with a knee-jerk selloff, but S&P 500 has found support and is still consolidating near its recent highs. A key factor? Reports that President Trump had a “productive” phone call with Russian President Putin about ending the Russia-Ukraine war, offering investors a glimmer of optimism, which would offset concerns with rising global trade tension, notably with the new administration\u2019s reciprocal tariffs. On the corporate side, the fourth-quarter earnings season rolls on. So far, more than 69% of S&P 500 companies have already released their results, and the majority are delivering pleasant surprises\u2014over 75% have topped Wall Street\u2019s forecasts, according to FactSet.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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7 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trade Spat Casts Shadow Over Sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Record high – Gold prices surged to yet another all-time high in this week\u2019s trading, driven by strong safe-haven demand as investors flock to the yellow metal amid rising uncertainty. Market nerves remain on edge as President Trump\u2019s unpredictable and potentially disruptive policy moves keep traders guessing. Meanwhile, China-U.S. trade tensions are heating up, with both nations escalating tariffs and taking further hostile business actions against each other this week. The EU may not be spared either after Trump doubled down on his plan to hike tariffs on the block, adding another layer of uncertainty to global trade dynamics. Experts fret that this \u201celevated trade policy uncertainty\u201d could drag on economic growth in the coming months, primarily by dampening business investment and weakening market confidence. Goldman Sachs has warned that the eurozone economy could suffer a \u201csizable hit to activity\u201d from the rise in trade tensions. With geopolitical and economic uncertainty mounting, gold continues its record-breaking rally, proving once again that when uncertainty reigns, gold shines.<\/p>

Mixed feelings – U.S. stocks have recouped their recent losses as they strive to hold onto this year\u2019s limited gains. While earnings from Alphabet and AMD fell short of expectations, Big Tech found support thanks to a strong rally in Nvidia. Alphabet\u2019s stock took a hit, sliding nearly 7%, after its fourth-quarter cloud revenue came in below estimates. The shortfall raised concerns that the company’s aggressive AI investments may take longer than expected to pay off. However, Nvidia emerged as a winner, climbing more than 5% as investors bet that the chipmaker could benefit from the ongoing AI spending spree. Overall, a retreat of the 10-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since December 2024 further added support to the market\u2019s rebound.<\/span><\/p>

Sluggish demand – Crude oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels of the year as fears of weakening demand rattled investors. The drop comes after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports, while U.S. stockpiles climbed for the second straight week. WTI crude hit its lowest point since December 31, 2024, as tensions between the top two consumers escalated. With China\u2014the world\u2019s largest oil importer\u2014facing economic headwinds, concerns are mounting over a potential slowdown in global energy demand. On Tuesday, China\u2019s State Council Tariff Commission announced a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with a 10% duty on American crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles, set to take effect next week. Meanwhile, fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing fears of weakening demand and adding further pressure to oil markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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31 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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AI Race and Safe Haven in Tandem<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tech correction – US tech stocks stabilised after plunging on Monday due to the sudden rise of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) app DeepSeek. The open source solution sent chipmaker Nvidia into a nosedive, triggering a broader selloff across the market. The turbulence followed DeepSeek\u2019s claim that its AI model was developed at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, prompting investors to rapidly reassess their bets on AI and the ROI on the costly infrastructure, and casting uncertainty over America\u2019s AI dominance. President Donald Trump called the moment \u201ca wake-up call\u201d for the US tech industry while downplaying concerns over the breakthrough, affirming that the US will remain a leading force in AI. For traders following the price action, unless the Nasdaq sinks below its 2-month lows around 20600 the index is merely consolidating near its historic high. The market\u2019s eventual resilience would prove the optimism surrounding AI investments that has fuelled much of the US stock market\u2019s surge over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>

ECB easing – The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its fifth rate cut on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points as it walks a tightrope between rising inflation and sluggish growth. After months of cooling, inflation in the eurozone is heating up again, hitting 2.4% in December – its third straight increase – just as the effects of cheaper energy start to fade. At the same time, the region\u2019s economy is stuck in neutral. Fresh data showed zero growth in the final quarter of 2024, falling short of economists\u2019 modest 0.1% forecast and following a 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. Commenting on the latest move, ECB President Christine Lagarde didn\u2019t sugarcoat the situation, admitting that the euro area economy is \u201cset to remain weak in the near term.\u201d In other words, while inflation is picking up, growth is taking a nap – leaving the ECB with the tricky job of keeping both in check. FX-wise, the single currency is far from being out of the woods as the US Fed stayed put with its interest rates unchanged, broadening the differential between the two economic entities.<\/span><\/p>

Shining again – Gold is back on its feet after dragging its feet for the past three months. The price has surged to a new all-time fuelled by strong safe-haven demand and technical buying. Investor jitters over the new US administration\u2019s trade and foreign policies – especially the potential for fresh tariffs – are keeping the marketplace on edge. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting on Wednesday with a clear signal: interest rates are staying unchanged for the foreseeable future. Policymakers acknowledged that \u201cinflation remains somewhat elevated,\u201d but Chair Jerome Powell downplayed any shift in stance, brushing off the change in wording as mere \u201clanguage clean-up.\u201d Powell steered clear of commenting on how President Trump\u2019s policies might influence the Fed\u2019s decisions. Markets, in turn, took the Fed\u2019s statement and Powell\u2019s press conference in stride, showing little reaction.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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24 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trump 2.0 May Complicate Fed Policy Course<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Technical recovery – The euro\u2019s current rebound is likely to be due to profit-taking after it hit a 26-month low earlier this year. General sentiment remains downbeat as the ECB keeps pushing in the loosening direction while the Fed is taking their feet off the pedal. President Christine Lagarde and other senior officials expressed support for additional rate cuts, potentially weakening the shared currency in the short term. Markets have already priced in another 25bp cut next Thursday, the fifth of the easing cycle, with expectations that interest rates will drop to 2% by year-end. Adding insult to injury would be the looming U.S. tariffs championed by Trump 2.0 elevating the risk of higher inflation in a fragile economy. Despite Lagarde\u2019s reassurance that the central bank is \u201cnot overly concerned\u201d about external factors, the market always finds a way to play in a cynical and pragmatic way and may keep the lid on the exchange rate.<\/p>

Verbal escalation – Gold is surfing on renewed geopolitical tensions following Mr Trump\u2019s inauguration. Stakes in the eastern front have been raised as the new U.S. president looks to boast his \u2018art of the deal\u2019 by settling the war in Ukraine in a swift manner. He delivered on his own social media platform Truth Social this week an ultimatum to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin saying that Russia should strike a deal or face even tougher economic consequences. Warnings of extending sanctions on all Russian exports to the United States and secondary penalties for nations conducting business with Moscow may push the latter to a corner if a deal fails to materialise, exacerbating the divide between the East and the West. The precious metal\u2019s solid run lately in spite of the dollar\u2019s strength signals growing demand for its safe haven status.<\/span><\/p>

Clash of the titans – The U.S. dollar has given back its recent gains as traders await a new catalyst from the central bank\u2019s interest rate decision next week. To spice things up, Powell & Co\u2019s cautious stance puts the Federal Reserve on a potential collision course with the new assertive president. Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs in a significant manner. As far as the market is concerned, the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25-4.5% next week, in the wake of three consecutive cuts since September. However, policymakers have adopted a more conservative approach for the year especially as Mr Trump\u2019s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes, and tighten immigration policies could complicate efforts to lower inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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UK Worries Weigh on Cable<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mini crisis – The pound has plunged to its lowest level in over a year, while UK borrowing costs have reached a 16-year high. The latest bond market sell-off reflects investors\u2019 growing concerns over UK assets and most importantly the contrasting signal between higher gilt yields and a falling currency shows investors\u2019 doubt over the country\u2019s economic outlook and the health of its public finances. The market turmoil has added pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faces increasing scrutiny, made an uncommon move by issuing a public statement for the second consecutive night, emphasising her \u201ciron grip\u201d on public finances. But despite government efforts to stabilise the markets, borrowing costs continue to climb. Addressing an urgent question in the House of Commons, Treasury Minister Darren Jones assured there was “no need for an emergency intervention” in financial markets. However, market participants still have the memory of the mini-budget crisis under the former prime minister Liz Truss in September 2022.<\/p>

Seasonal demand – Brent crude is staging a steady recovery to its 3-month high as the market demand has shifted its focus to colder weather than the last two winters, in both Europe and the United States, which could boost consumption of heating oil. A stronger U.S. dollar and an unexpected rise in U.S. stockpiles have not deterred buyers from shying away, with technical buying-the-dips compounding the seasonal factor. There are high hopes that the recent weak CPI print in China would spur more stimulus to tackle the country\u2019s chronic economic headache. In the meantime, a surge in travel across China ahead of the Lunar New Year has improved demand expectations, adding to rationales that would help the price stabilise in the near term.<\/p>

Bullish consolidation – The December U.S. jobs report was a blowout for the outgoing administration with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The print was a confirmation that would lessen the worry about the impact of high interest rates on the job market. While the market participants await further rejuvenation of the economy under Trump 2.0, the earnings season is kicking off next week with Q4 and full-year results from Wall Street\u2019s big banks. Investors anticipate impressive numbers as trading volumes have significantly exceeded typical fourth-quarter levels across all asset classes, fuelled by a growing participation from retail traders amid a bull run in both stock and cryptocurrency markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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3 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Investors Remain Confident about U.S. Growth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Parity in sight – The market is waiting for fresh catalysts in the first week of 2025 and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls might just give participants enough a reason to stay alert. A strong reading could be the straw that broke the euro\u2019s back as the single currency is inching towards the parity threshold, last seen in November 2022. The market consensus is that Trump\u2019s policies will sustain support for the greenback, as tax reliefs will put upward pressure on inflation and make further interest rate cuts less easy to justify, while tariffs against the eurozone would be seen as rubbing salt in the wound, undermining its growth outlook.\u00a0<\/p>

Steady recovery – Gold is striving for a comeback after it stabilised around its recent low of $2,600. The precious metal gains strength thanks to its safe-haven appeal, as investors turn their attention to President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s upcoming administration, set to begin on January 20. Anticipated policies from Trump, including higher import tariffs and lower taxes, are expected to benefit gold. More specifically, elevated tariffs could spark a global trade war, while reduced taxes may increase inflationary pressures in the United States. Gold often thrives in times of economic uncertainty as a safer asset and performs well during periods of rising inflation, as investors use it to hedge against price increases. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields fall to approximately 4.5%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, enhancing their attractiveness.<\/p>

Hesitant start – Stocks began January with a volatile trading session as investors locked in profits from notable 2024 winners like Apple and Tesla. The much-anticipated \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally, which typically boosts stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, failed to materialize as the market preferred the certainty of gains other than the promise of higher watermarks, leaving the S&P 500 with four straight days of losses into the year\u2019s end\u2014its first such streak since 1966. Still there is high hope that the rally will stay put as pro-growth and inflationary policies in the U.S. may keep fuelling the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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20 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fed Pours Cold Water Before Christmas<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed pressure – The euro is hovering near its 4-week low as traders price in a potential acceleration in the interest rate differential across the Atlantic. The ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place after its U.S. counterpart adopted a hawkish stance in the last meeting. In the meantime, inflation in the eurozone has become steady though not subdued with the November reading coming in below expectations at 2.2%. The market expects the central bank to stay the course on reducing borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate growth. While the Fed might hold back from another increase in January 2025, the ECB is expected to reduce interest rates at every meeting until June 2025, leaving the single currency struggle against other majors.<\/span><\/p>

Bullion dilemma – On the one hand, the prospect of lower global interest rates would make the non-yielding metal more appealing by lowering the cost of opportunity. On the other, a relatively strong U.S. economy and an unusually hawkish Fed might keep Treasury yields high, leaving gold in the shadows. How far the retracement may go would reflect bids on the mighty dollar as its recovery across the board so far has put the precious metal under pressure. The price action is consolidating as liquidity starts to dry out going into Christmas, but it would be too soon to call for a bearish reversal.<\/span><\/p>

Close call – Stock markets saw sharp pullbacks after the Federal Reserve commented on a \u2018closer call\u2019 on its loosening policy. As widely anticipated, the U.S. central bank lowered its key interest rate this Wednesday by 25 basis points, the third consecutive cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022. However, policymakers struck a cautionary note on their next move. Inflation has been holding steadily above target against the backdrop of uncertain economic growth on a global macro level, prompting the Fed to slow down on its monetary easing path, with indications that there probably would be only two small cuts in 2025. The decision has given risk assets such as tech stocks which have been front-running the yield curve a reason to take a breather, sending the S&P and Nasdaq indices off their recent peaks.<\/span><\/p>

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13 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Anticipating Another U.S. Rate Cut<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar recovery – The U.S. dollar is bouncing back across the board as traders reposition ahead of the last Federal Reverse rate decision of the year. The market overwhelmingly anticipates an additional 25-basis-point rate cut in the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. However the persistence of sticky inflation might put the brakes on the pace of future rate cuts, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England might trim their respective rates faster in the face of stalling economies. The prospect of this differential could prove particularly beneficial for the greenback.\u00a0<\/p>

Gold consolidation – Bullion has pulled back from its 3-week high as the market digests a crucial regime change in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad dynasty last weekend left a void in an increasingly turbulent region and exposed Iran, its former ally, prompting traders to ponder major stakeholders\u2019, namely the U.S. and Russia and their proxies\u2019 next move on the geopolitical chessboard. As a result, heightened uncertainty may keep safe haven seekers busy as the new year could reserve additional surprises. In the meantime, news of physical buying by the People\u2019s Bank of China may offer further support.<\/span><\/p>

S&P high watermark – The U.S. index is still holding on to its all-time high as investors bet on a downward trajectory of the interest rates. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October’s 2.6% annual increase, but in line with economists’ forecasts. Participants in the rally have so far shrugged off economists\u2019 view of Trump’s proposed policies\u2014such as imposing high tariffs on imports, cutting corporate taxes, and restricting immigration\u2014as potentially inflationary. The optimism may live on as long as evidence shows a lack of an upside surprise in inflation data.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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06 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Job Report Sends U.S. Dollar into Retreat<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar pullback – The latest U.S. job data showed a rise of the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% in November. The greenback has been pulling back as traders braced for the last nonfarm payrolls of the year. Before the report, the market had priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut on December 18, but that probability has now climbed to 87%. The prevailing sentiment is that Fed officials are already inclined toward a rate cut, and it would take a much stronger report to change their stance. The market now expects 90 basis points of easing next year, up from the previous expectation of 82 basis points, offering fragile support to the dollar in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Oil stabilisation – WTI crude steadied around its 3-month low after the OPEC+ group which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia postponed its planned production increase amid sluggish global demand, notably due to China\u2019s economic struggle and competition from non-member producers like Brazil and Argentina. The recent lows also corresponds to the trough seen in December 2021, indicating the market\u2019s concern about the lingering supply and demand imbalance. Market participants may look to thread the needle with their year\u2019s end positioning as the price walks on thin ice.<\/span><\/p>

Trump effect – Bitcoin’s value soared past the $100,000 mark after Trump announced plans to nominate former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the regulatory body. Atkins is widely regarded as more cryptocurrency friendly than the incumbent Gary Gensler. The president-elect had earlier vowed to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital” and his celebration on social media with messages like “Congratulations Bitcoiners” and “You’re welcome!” would draw more public attention to the digital asset. Traders have started to bag some profits but sentiment supported by the trend remains overwhelmingly positive.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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29 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Final Push as Markets Look to Regain Volatility<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Calm before volatility –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Trading volumes have thinned around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday this week but market lethargy may give place to renewed volatility in a busy data-driven week. Investors are likely to take advantage of the last nonfarm payrolls on Friday and reallocate their books before going into the Christmas holiday season. Until then weak tech earnings and the Nvidia sell-off could continue to be the theme that has been driving major U.S. indices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Oil uncertainty –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Oil prices stabilise as traders look for signals from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on the 1st of December. The market widely expects production cuts from January. However, artificial restraints on supply may not suffice to lift depressed prices in the current environment. Global fundamentals remain uncertain at best as bidders may be reluctant to hold large positions into the new year with American protectionism looming as Trump is scheduled to retake the reins.<\/span><\/p>

Lost shine –\u00a0<\/span>Gold remains under pressure weighed down by the recent recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. Meanwhile physical investments in China, the precious metal’s No.1 consumer country, have tanked amid growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical friction with the West. The price is hovering above the $2600 mark and trying to find support and now the question is whether bullion\u2019s safe haven status would bring in more inflows in the weeks leading to the year\u2019s end.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Market Confidence Fuels Tech and Digital Assets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Arms race – Russia missile strikes on Ukraine in response to the use of Western made missiles by its neighbour have triggered another round of escalation in the 1000-day conflict. What worries traders is whether this could open doors for more unprecedented events in the months to come. Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen have held their ground and found renewed interests as market participants look to hedge their risk appetite.<\/p>\n

Under pressure – US indices are holding onto their gains as investors anticipate a 25 basis point cut by the Fed at its December meeting. High watermarks in US equities reflect the market\u2019s confidence in its economy, offering better yields in a lower interest rate environment as well as safety backed by the American government. Individual stocks have found a boost from bright quarterly results from the likes of Nvidia, furthering cementing the confidence, so much that even the news of a possible breakup of Alphabet, parent of Google by the US Department of Justice have left the market unfazed.<\/p>\n

To the moon – Bitcoin continues to stay well-supported as it pushes its way to the landmark $100,000. Fundamentally, expectations of a more friendly business environment with an end to scrutiny from US regulators, growing popularity in bitcoin ETFs as well as escalations in geopolitical events bringing in more flows are major tailwinds for the digital asset. Technically, the question is who dares to say \u2018this is good enough\u2019 and put their money where their mouth is by taking the other side of the trade. Until then the momentum may stay strong.<\/p>\n

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15 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Assets Push Forward as Trump Secures both Houses<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dream team momentum -The market is on its toes as President-elect Donald Trump taps into personal ties to shape the next government. His comeback may have a large impact as a mix of tax cuts, immigration control and trade tariffs could go through with the blessing of a Republican-controlled Congress. The US dollar\u2019s strength and overall volatility can barely hide expectations of a dramatic shift in US policies.<\/p>

Euro\u2019s struggle. – Whispers of parity are back in the market, a reminiscence of the energy crisis back in 2022. This time around, investors fear that Mr Trump will be back to take care of his unfinished business with more tariffs. On the ECB\u2019s monetary policy, faster interest rate cuts than in the United States would put the single currency under further pressure.<\/p>

Crypto president – Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $90,000 is a telltale sign that traders are embracing the upcoming US administration for the best, and potentially the worst. The crypto industry is betting on a friendlier regime to trigger a broader adoption, leading up to another round of bull market. Meanwhile, outperformance by digital gold compared to altcoins may suggest traders\u2019 hedging of possible escalation in geopolitical disputes.<\/p>

Tech optimism – Stock market sentiment remains risk-on as a lower interest rate environment compounds the prospect of Republicans\u2019 laissez-faire agenda with tax cuts and looser regulations. Options players are piling into riskier assets notably the technology sector which they believe could reap a massive windfall from Trump\u2019s victory, supporting the current rally.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Day After: Global Market Reactions to Trump\u2019s Victory<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Donald Trump’s confirmation as the next US president has boosted stocks and assets that are seen as favourable to his administration.\u00a0 His agenda is set to bolster traditional industries such as construction, infrastructure, and energy. The policies announced by Donald Trump during his campaign were generally seen as inflationary,\u00a0due to tariffs\u00a0and onshoring, pro-growth, and as adding to the already burgeoning federal deficit, thanks to proposed tax cuts. How these policies affect the economic backdrop is likely to be one key driver of US stock market returns in the next four years.<\/p>

In the US, stocks soared last night to record highs with the S&P 500 jumping 2.5% to close at 5,929.04, while the Dow Jones surged 3.6%, reaching 43,729.93. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite advanced 3% to 18,983.47. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.435% from 4.411% late on Tuesday.<\/p>

Stocks in Asia recovered from early losses after US stocks jumped to record levels as investors tried to assess the impact of Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House on the global economy. The Hang Seng climbed 2% in Hong Kong, and the Shanghai Composite was 2.6% up by the end of the session.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the Chinese government reported that exports jumped nearly 13% in October compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years. However, the Nikkei slipped 0.3% on the day in Japan, reflecting worries over the potential for a revival of trade tensions under a Trump administration.<\/p>

The FTSE 100 and European stocks pushed higher in the Thursday early morning session as the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0(BoE) is\u00a0expected to cut interest rates again at noon. Money markets are strongly betting on a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut \u2014 that the benchmark rate will fall from its\u00a0current level of 5%\u00a0to 4.75%. It is the first announcement since the UK government unveiled their budget last week and comes as CPI\u00a0inflation\u00a0and\u00a0wage growth\u00a0continue to cool.<\/p>

Traders are now turning their attention to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England\u2019s decisions on interest rates later today. The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates again this evening by 25 basis points, amid a moderating inflation rate and a softening labour market.<\/p>

However, analysts have warned that it is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and concerns that he might seek significant influence over the central banks\u2019 policy decisions, that will be the main driver in the global financial markets.<\/p>

The pound dived against the dollar, following Trump\u2019s\u00a0claimed victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. The pound\u2019s decline marks a significant sell-off as traders brace for a shift in US economic policy under the prospect of a second Trump administration. Yesterday the US dollar surged to its largest single-day gain since March 2020, climbing 1.5% against a basket of major currencies.<\/p>

Gold prices were lower as investors moved away from the safe haven and into assets that could benefit under the new Trump administration, with spot gold currently trading lower at $2,665.00 per ounce. The drop in gold signals a broader market reaction to the US presidential election, which is dominating investor sentiment this week.<\/p>

The Fed\u2019s outlook to be announced later today, could also influence the direction of gold in the coming weeks, as rising rates tend to weigh on the precious metal.<\/p>

Oil markets were pressured by the results from the US elections and the latest weekly US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, with Brent crude futures trading at $71.87 per barrel. Oil prices have shown a dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump\u2019s victory.<\/p>

A new Trump administration would favour domestic fossil fuel producers as he aims to enhance America’s energy security. Approximately two thirds of the exchange-traded fund iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IOGP.AS) is held in US-listed assets. Trump is also likely to prioritise increased domestic oil and gas production.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trading Trump (vs) Harris - Election Anxiety Spikes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The FTSE 100 and European stocks are showing a mixed picture on Monday as traders anxiously await the outcome of the US presidential election, as well as a decision on\u00a0UK interest rates\u00a0from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0on Thursday, which is expected to make a quarter-point cut for the second time this cycle, taking UK interest rates to 4.75%.<\/p>

The U.S. election could bring unprecedented market swings across various asset classes and will shape the direction of the global financial markets and geopolitics for the next four years, with potential policy changes impacting stocks, commodities, forex, and other assets. Historically, election uncertainty has led to extreme volatility. During the 2020 election, financial markets experienced a $5 trillion fluctuation in market value in the weeks preceding and following the election: the VIX (Volatility Index) jumped by over 50%, and global markets experienced turbulence throughout the election cycle.<\/p>

Traders around the globe, are closely watching as Kamala Harris, running for the Democratic Party, races against leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. The outcome of the election will define the policies of the next administration which would have a tremendous impact on economic trends, international trade, and market stability.<\/p>

The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges.<\/p>

This volatility may present both risks and opportunities in the trading environment, therefore it would be prudent for traders to keep their trading accounts sufficiently funded in advance. This will allow them to manage margin requirements effectively, capitalise on potential opportunities, and mitigate any market risks.<\/p>

Potential Implications and Market Reactions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The race remains neck-and-neck as we approach tomorrow\u2019s vote, and investors have been positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump.<\/p>

In the US, Trump would likely shake up the status quo far more significantly than Harris, who has served as President Joe Biden\u2019s vice president for the past four years.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s focus on fiscal expansion and tariffs which would is expected to trigger higher inflation and would have a strong influence in Treasury and FX markets, as well as risk-on in equity markets favouring US cyclicals. Tax cuts would also be expected as part of Trump\u2019s economic policy.<\/p>

In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump\u2019s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies. Markets are pricing in some of the risks associated with Trump returning to the White House, suggesting that a Harris victory would trigger a bullish move for emerging markets, while factoring in the likely impact of higher taxes on earnings and reinforcement of wider macro forces.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s tariff plans carry particular risks for China for levies of 60% or more, which will increase pressure on the Chinese economy while the government is already struggling to revive the faltering economy.<\/p>

Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, may also come under pressure with tariff increases. The Yuan\u2019s one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years last month.<\/p>

Developing nations such as South Korea and Taiwan, with high exposure to the US and strong reliance on Chinese inputs could also face pressures from such an escalating trade war, as they would be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s statements on the US commitment to alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and to Ukraine\u2019s efforts to defeat Russia, have weighed on local bonds of certain eastern European countries and lifted Ukraine\u2019s dollar debt on speculation that Trump\u2019s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.<\/p>

What if the Result\u00a0is Contested?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The counting of the votes may only be the start of a new process that financial markets will struggle to interpret.<\/p>

Markets are expected to be volatile not only on the night of the election, but potentially in the days or weeks to follow. Declarations and rumours around key swing states like Pennsylvania will be particularly important and algo-driven markets could be particularly sensitive to such risk.\u00a0<\/p>

The greatest risk for global markets to consider would be if the election result is bitterly contested afterwards by the \u2018losing\u2019 party. Because the polls remain so close, the election creates a great deal of uncertainty with traders trying to price for a binary outcome. Key policies, particularly around trade, tariffs and the outlook for the US debt, will be greatly affected by the outcome and so the results will drive price action.\u00a0<\/p>

The biggest uncertainty facing the market is if the result is contested. It took days to declare Biden officially the winner in the 2020 election, while Trump contested the result almost until the January inauguration. The highest risk is that neither side is willing to concede, leading to a high-stakes legal roller coaster, which could in theory last not days but weeks. This outcome has the largest potential for a negative risk catalyst in the global markets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Oil prices heading for their biggest weekly gains in over a year <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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04 October 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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After a night of intense air strikes by Israel on Beirut, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in today\u2019s session. Oil prices posted their biggest one-day rise in almost a year, surging by more than 5%.<\/p>

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to around $77.90 a barrel. Weekly prices have experienced their biggest weekly percentage point gain since early 2023. Traders are concerned that potential supply disruptions may occur after President Joe Biden suggested that American officials were \u201cdiscussing\u201d whether to support an Israeli attack on Iran\u2019s oil facilities.<\/p>

In other news around the world, traders are watching the US jobs report due to be released at 13:30 BST today. With inflation declining, the crucial parameter now is the job market. According to consensus estimates reported by Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to show 150,000 jobs were added last month up from 142,000 reported in August, while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2%.<\/p>

Traders are trying to forecast how aggressively the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts. In the above scenario, the Fed will probably cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, smaller than its half-point cut in September. In Asia, China\u2019s stimulus package announced recently, continued to support markets higher into Friday\u2019s trading, with the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closing the session 2% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also closed 0.2% higher this morning, following a volatile week of trading caused by central bank announcements.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Pound Rally Against US Dollar Continues ahead of Interest Rate Decisions.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The European markets as well as the FTSE 100 are on the rise today, as investors are focusing on key central bank decisions later in the week from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0and the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>

The US Federal Reserve is expected to move towards cutting interest rates more aggressively\u00a0as it meets today and tomorrow.<\/p>

A 25 basis-point reduction by the US Federal Reserve would be a pivotal move, as investors hope that the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth. A more aggressive 50 basis points cut on the other hand would be the biggest single rate cut in 16 years triggering concerns of economic trouble ahead.<\/p>

The likelihood of a 25 basis-point reduction fell to 37% from 50% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision this Thursday. The market expectations are leaning towards holding rates at their current level.<\/p>

The pound has rallied against the dollar ahead of these major interest rate decisions, with the US currency trading near its lowest levels of the year.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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12th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Returning to Global Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk appetite has returned to the markets after the world\u2019s largest technology companies made a bounce on Wall Street on Wednesday.<\/p>

Europe\u2019s Stoxx 600 index advanced by 1.2% yesterday, the most single day jump since mid-August, while Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.2%, treasuries were steady, and the dollar remained flat.<\/p>

In Asia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed the most in a month, supported by gains in the technology sector. In Japan, the Nikkei index reversed its seven-day losing streak, while the yen declined from its strongest level against the dollar since December.<\/p>

Traders are still focusing on interest rate developments, with the FTSE 100 and European stocks joining the global rally today, advancing in early trade ahead of an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank.<\/p>

US inflation data for August supported the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but fueled speculation that the move will be gradual.<\/p>

Market sentiment has been characterised by optimism that the Fed will drive the US economy to a soft landing and fear that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut rates. Swaps have now priced in a 25-basis point rate reduction next week, however there is an argument over the path for further reductions.<\/p>

Oil continues its gains from Wednesday as Hurricane Francine destroyed key oil-producing zones in the Gulf of Mexico triggering bearish bets, while Gold is still trading above $2,515 per ounce.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Global Stocks Tumble as Flight from Risk Continues<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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4th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A global flight from risk assets continues on Wednesday due to fears around the US economy and a sharp decline in US stocks especially in the big tech sector on Tuesday after the labour day holiday weekend.<\/p>

Traders are fearing additional swings, looking for clues on whether the US economy is threatened by a recession, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s next adjustments to its monetary policy.<\/p>

A US job openings report expected today will indicate whether there is further cooling in the labor market, marking a 5th<\/sup> consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. The market is shifting its focus from inflation to concerns over economic growth, causing turmoil in stocks and other risk assets.<\/p>

Traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing its policy in September by reducing rates by more than two full percentage points over the next 12 months, this is the steepest drop since the 1980s outside of a downturn. Furthermore, payrolls data is due on Friday and will be crucial in defining the magnitude of the initial rate cut.<\/p>

In currencies, the dollar snapped a five-day winning streak whilst the yen extended its gains.<\/p>

Oil dropped further after crashing to the lowest level this year, with Brent futures falling to around $73 a barrel due to growing concerns that weak demand and restored supplies from OPEC will create a new surplus.<\/p>

Gold futures are hovering above $2,515 per ounce, down from their all-time high last month but still up almost 22% year to date. The precious metal remains the traders\u2019 favourite hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, gaining additional support from expected Fed rate cuts later this month and ongoing EM central bank buying. Traders are pricing in a 31% probability of a 50-basis point cut instead of 25 basis points according to the CME FedWatch – CME Group<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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5 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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ECB Goes Loose as Global Trade Remains Uncertain<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Accommodative stance – The ECB’s eighth consecutive interest rate cut, down to 2%, signals an aggressive push to boost the bloc\u2019s economy amid lingering fallout from Trump’s trade war. With inflation now below the ECB\u2019s 2% target and core component showing signs of softening, the central bank is acting to ensure monetary conditions remain supportive. The cut had been anticipated by markets, but it underscores a broader shift toward policy easing as the ECB contends with external pressures, particularly from deteriorating global trade conditions and slower growth. Investors responded to the downward revision for 2026 growth with modest optimism and confidence that the ECB will remain accommodative. Expectations are now forming around a potential pause in July, and markets are likely to remain sensitive to future data releases, particularly if inflation pressures unexpectedly resurface or Trump\u2019s trade rhetoric escalates further.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jobs catalyst – U.S. stock indices edge higher as investors await the key non-farm payrolls report, in order to assess how Donald Trump’s trade policies are impacting the job market and the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate outlook. While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady this month, markets are pricing in at least two cuts by year-end. Despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, preferring to wait for more economic clarity amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have taken effect, with the threat of broader levies in July. Investors are now closely monitoring trade talks, particularly a potential call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n

Supply expansion – Oil prices declined amid growing signs that Saudi Arabia is pushing for another increase in output, reinforcing market concerns over a potential supply glut in the second half of the year. The proposed increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day underscores a strategic shift toward defending market share rather than prioritising price stability. This comes as the kingdom aims to capitalise on seasonal peak demand during summer months. However, such a move also heightens risks of oversupply, especially with inventories already showing signs of building and global demand forecasts remaining vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties. A more aggressive supply expansion may exacerbate downward pressure on prices. Compounding the bearish sentiment, Saudi Aramco\u2019s price cut to Asia, though smaller than anticipated, signals weakening demand in key import markets. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fiscal Strains Boost Bitcoin At Expense of Commodities<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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New high – Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high above $111,000 on Thursday, extending its 2025 bull run even as U.S. equity markets pulled back. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to defy broader risk-off sentiment, driven by accelerating institutional inflows and growing regulatory clarity. Momentum has also been bolstered by progress on the regulatory front. The GENIUS Act \u2013 a bill designed to provide a framework for stablecoin regulation \u2013 cleared a key procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate this week. Market participants and crypto advocates view it as a positive step toward removing uncertainty in the digital asset space. With regulatory tailwinds, strong inflows, and sustained institutional confidence, bitcoin’s rise is increasingly being seen not just as speculative mania, but as a maturing asset class solidifying its role in the financial system.<\/p>

Output hike – Oil prices fell, pressured by expectations of increased output from major producers and rising concerns about global demand amid U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The sell-off was triggered by reports from Bloomberg that OPEC+ is considering a third consecutive production hike, with one proposal involving a July increase of 411,000 barrels per day \u2013 triple the group’s previously planned rise. The potential supply boost comes as oil markets already grapple with subdued demand signals, amplifying downside risks. In parallel, investors are growing uneasy over mounting U.S. debt. A tax-cut and spending bill through Congress have added to fears about fiscal sustainability, shaking broader market confidence. All eyes now turn to OPEC+\u2019s June 1 meeting for clarity on the cartel\u2019s next move.<\/p>

Critical juncture – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax-and-spending bill by a single vote, enacting much of Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda while intensifying fears over the nation\u2019s ballooning debt. The legislation is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. Markets reacted with mixed signals. U.S. stock futures edged higher after the bill\u2019s passage, but Treasury yields climbed, reflecting investor anxiety about government borrowing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faced fresh selling pressure as global confidence in American fiscal discipline continues to erode, aggravated by Trump\u2019s unpredictable tariff policy and mounting international skepticism toward the stability of U.S. assets. As political divisions deepen and long-term fiscal reform remains elusive, the market sees the U.S. finding itself at a critical juncture.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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15 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Uncertainty Reigns as Geopolitical Talks Unfold<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed optimism – Bitcoin traded higher helped by renewed institutional flows back into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The rebound in ETF activity came as inflation worries eased and trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of de-escalation. Lower-than-expected CPI helped bolster risk appetite and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates later this year. Despite the improved backdrop, market uncertainty, especially over global trade dynamics, continues to cap gains. Traders are expected to watch Friday\u2019s producer price data and Fed commentary closely for further cues.<\/p>

Fragile peace – Ukraine and Russia may hold long-awaited talks in Turkey today, but uncertainty shrouds the summit amid conflicting signals and a lack of high-level participation. Despite calling for the talks himself, Russian President Putin will not be attending. Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he will make a final decision on whether to attend after meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. US President Trump, who had signalled openness to adjusting his Middle East visit to join the summit, will also be absent. With global pressure mounting, both US and European leaders have warned that Moscow faces fresh sanctions if it fails to engage seriously and agree to a ceasefire.<\/span><\/p>

Supply concern – Oil prices fell amid rising expectations of a US-Iran nuclear agreement that could lead to sanctions relief and increased Iranian oil exports. President Trump signalled that a deal was \u201cvery close,\u201d with Tehran having \u201csort of\u201d agreed to the terms. An Iranian official also indicated willingness to proceed in exchange for sanctions relief, following four rounds of talks in Oman. Despite this diplomatic progress, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions targeting Iran\u2019s missile production and oil export networks, underscoring the fragile nature of the ongoing negotiations. Market sentiment was further pressured by a surprise rise in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a build of 3.5 million barrels last week, contrary to analyst expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw, fuelling concerns of oversupply.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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08 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Art of Deal Strikes Again<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Suspense deal – Gold prices slipped as optimism over a potential US-UK trade deal weighed on safe-haven demand. The move followed Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent agreement, with a press briefing scheduled for 2 p.m. GMT. The prospect of easing trade tensions has led investors to reduce gold exposure, favoring risk assets instead. Recent gains in gold, which recently hit record highs above $3,500\/oz, have largely been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive tariff rhetoric. However, the appetite for the metal appears to be softening as signs of diplomatic progress emerge. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar added further pressure, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Market sentiment remains cautious, though. While investor interest in gold remains historically elevated, demand from the jewellery sector has faltered, limiting upward momentum. Looking ahead, traders will watch for confirmation of the US-UK deal and any developments in US-China negotiations. If diplomacy gains traction, gold may trend lower in the near term, while a breakdown could trigger another spike in safe-haven flows.<\/p>

Timid recovery – Oil prices rebounded following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a forthcoming trade deal\u2014widely expected to be with the UK\u2014boosting market sentiment amid lingering concerns over global demand. The move offers a political win for Trump ahead of crucial US-China trade talks and has helped lift crude off recent lows sparked by tariffs and OPEC+ supply adjustments. While oil has faced downward pressure in recent weeks due to fears of a global slowdown and increased output from OPEC+ members, the prospect of a new trade agreement and falling US crude inventories is offering some near-term support with stockpiles dropping by 2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, partially offsetting Tuesday\u2019s bearish API report showing a 4.49 million barrel build.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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01 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Makes Return<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk on – Gold prices continued their decline midweek as investors scaled back safe-haven exposure amid renewed signs of US-China trade engagement. The pullback marks gold\u2019s third straight session of losses, driven by optimism that fresh talks could ease tariff tensions. Traders will be watching for confirmation of any formal dialogue between Washington and Beijing before the weekend. Furthermore, sentiment has been lifted by Trump’s executive orders easing auto tariff pressure and remarks pointing to possible deals with India, South Korea, and Japan. Looking ahead, with geopolitical risk premia unwinding and trade dialogue showing signs of progress, the precious metal may face further downside pressure near term. However, any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the market mood.<\/p>

Tech support – Stronger-than-expected Q1 results from Microsoft and Meta lifted sentiment across the tech sector, offsetting concerns about a potential advertising slowdown linked to tariff uncertainty. Microsoft delivered robust earnings, with EPS of $3.46 on $70B in revenue, surpassing forecasts. Notably, Azure revenue rose on the back of AI demand, slightly above expectations. Commercial cloud revenue saw continued enterprise demand despite macro headwinds. Meta also outperformed, posting EPS of $6.43 and $42.3B in revenue, well above estimates. Guidance for Q2 revenue came in strong at $42.5B\u2013$45.5B, despite management acknowledging ongoing tariff-driven ad market concerns. The dual beats and solid outlooks from two Magnificent 7 heavyweights provided a tailwind for the Nasdaq index.<\/p>

New deal – The newly signed US-Ukraine agreement granting Washington a share of profits from Ukraine’s future mineral and energy sales reflects a shift toward longer-term strategic and economic cooperation. While not a formal security guarantee, the deal gives the US tangible stakes in Ukraine\u2019s post-war recovery and resource access, helping to justify continued US support amid political debates over aid. The deal may bolster sentiment in energy and mining equities tied to US interests, particularly those with exposure to lithium, rare earths, or natural gas. However, uncertainty around control of resource-rich territories and absence of binding security commitments could temper investor enthusiasm in the near term.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Central Banks Go Dovish Over Clouded Economic Outlook<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Grim outlook – Markets remain nervous as the U.S. central bank struck a cautious note about the growth outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is caught between a rock and a hard place as tariffs are likely to stoke inflation. Speaking publicly for the first time since President Trump paused parts of his sweeping tariff plan, the Fed boss signalled a wait-and-see approach to interest rates, saying the Fed needs more clarity on the economy\u2019s trajectory. However, he warned that the ongoing trade turmoil could derail the central bank\u2019s inflation and employment goals. The uncertainty has bruised dollar-denominated assets across the board with the greenback slumping to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. U.S. stocks and bonds also have seen sharp outflows in recent weeks.<\/p>

Cloudy sky – The euro held steady as the ECB slashed interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its key deposit rate down to 2.25% as trade tensions rattle the eurozone\u2019s economic outlook. The move, widely expected by markets, follows growing uncertainty tied to U.S.-led tariff hikes that have roiled global commerce. In a stark policy statement, the central bank flagged “rising trade tensions” as a key driver of deteriorating growth prospects, with President Christine Lagarde warning of “exceptional uncertainty” ahead. Europe now faces a sharp uptick in U.S. tariffs\u2014climbing from 3% to roughly 13%\u2014creating what Lagarde called a \u201cnegative demand shock.\u201d While many tariffs have been paused, the lingering threat of escalation has cast a shadow over inflation expectations and economic momentum.<\/p>

Mounting pressure – While the week wraps early for commodities ahead of Good Friday, bullish drivers have outweighed bearish signals. Crude prices are set to notch a weekly gain, buoyed by fresh U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms trading Iranian oil. The move adds to mounting pressure on Tehran and raises the prospect of tighter global supply, especially as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions through economic means. The International Energy Agency also added upward momentum by trimming its forecast for global supply growth. In its latest monthly report, the agency cut its forecast for this year by 260,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of just 1.2 million bpd. The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated output from the U.S. and Venezuela, adding to market concerns over tighter supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Trade Policy Keeps Investors on Edge<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tariff Reloaded – Markets staged a dramatic rebound at Thursday\u2019s open after President Donald Trump made a surprise reversal on tariff policy, temporarily slashing new import duties to 10% for most U.S. trade partners over a 90-day period. The sharp pivot marked a stark contrast to his earlier hardline stance and triggered a powerful rally across Wall Street. The S&P 500 soared in its third-biggest one-day gain since World War II, the Dow posted its strongest advance since the COVID crash of March 2020, and the Nasdaq exploded in its second-best session ever. Despite the relief rally, trade tensions remain high. The reciprocal tariffs Trump had long threatened officially came into effect, targeting nearly 90 countries. China was notably excluded from the temporary reprieve, with tariffs on Chinese goods escalating sharply after Beijing announced fresh duties on U.S. imports. The European Union also hit back, approving its first wave of countermeasures in response to the earlier U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs, signalling that the global trade skirmish is far from over.<\/p>

Empire Strikes Back – The escalating showdown has rattled all asset classes, stoking fears of a growth slowdown, rising inflation, and squeezed corporate earnings. Amid the mounting uncertainty, gold has seen a sharp rally, as investors seek safety in traditional havens. China has fired back once again at President Donald Trump\u2019s escalating tariff offensive, announcing a steep increase in duties on U.S. imports. Starting April 10, tariffs on American goods entering China will soar to 84%, up from the previous 34%, according to the latest statement from the Office of the Tariff Commission. The move comes in direct response to Washington\u2019s own overnight hike, which pushed tariffs on Chinese goods past the 100% mark. This tit-for-tat trade war is rapidly deepening, threatening to paralyse commerce between the world\u2019s two largest economies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

OPEC Strains – Oil prices remain fragile even though OPEC’s production slipped in March, just ahead of a planned output increase, as key members faced disruptions and mounting geopolitical pressure. Nigeria scaled back deliveries to domestic refineries, notably the Dangote facility, leading to a decline that offset stronger export volumes. Meanwhile, renewed efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to choke off oil flows from Iran and Venezuela contributed to further production drops from those nations. In total, output from Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each fell by around 50,000 barrels per day. Despite this, Nigeria remains slightly above its OPEC+ production target, with Gabon identified as the bloc\u2019s least compliant member. The latest figures highlight the fragile balance within OPEC+ as it begins to cautiously unwind some of its recent cuts. The full impact of the planned production hike may ultimately hinge on the success of Washington\u2019s push to curtail supplies from Tehran and Caracas.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets in Turmoil Amid Escalating Trade War<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Asian and European markets suffered a major blow as the fallout from President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariff announcements triggered a global sell-off. In Asia, Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index experienced a historic crash, while Taiwan\u2019s TAIEX tumbled to an all-time low in a dramatic market rout. The chaos spilled into Europe, where the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 opened sharply lower and Germany\u2019s DAX endured a full-blown bloodbath at the open. Although European markets have since clawed back some losses, volatility remains high as investors brace for more turbulence amid the escalating trade showdown.<\/span><\/p>

US futures are pointing to a rough start on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 expected to open down, reflecting deepening investor unease. Meanwhile, Brent Crude prices have slumped to their lowest level since April 2021, underscoring growing concerns over global demand. Even cryptocurrencies, often touted as alternatives to traditional finance, have been swept up in the turmoil. In a sell-off as widespread and intense as this, few risk assets are managing to escape the fallout unscathed.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitical and Trade Escalations Fuel Market Jitters<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Military Standoff – The U.S. is stepping up its military presence in the Middle East, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sending in extra warplanes for an ongoing bombing campaign in Yemen. The move adds more fuel to the fire in Washington\u2019s standoff with Iran, as Trump continues to push for nuclear negotiations\u2014using both tariffs and military threats as leverage. Over the weekend, Trump warned Tehran that more strikes (and even more tariffs) could be on the way if talks don\u2019t move forward. Iran, however, isn\u2019t budging. In a firm response via Oman, Tehran made it clear that it won\u2019t negotiate under pressure. With both sides digging in, tensions remain sky-high. Unless some behind-the-scenes diplomacy works its magic, we could be looking at more economic and military maneuvers, which would keep markets\u2014and the energy sector\u2014on edge.<\/p>

Trade Turmoil – Wednesday\u2019s much-anticipated tariff announcement couldn\u2019t come at a trickier time for the markets. Stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride for weeks, thanks to ever-changing trade policy chatter, and investors are still feeling pretty jittery. Unfortunately, it doesn\u2019t look like this latest move will do much to calm nerves. In fact, things might get even messier\u2014China, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly teaming up to hit back at Trump\u2019s tariff push. A coordinated counterstrike from these economic heavyweights could mean an extended trade skirmish, potentially tangling up supply chains and putting a damper on global growth. As traders sift through the details of this two-step tariff plan, all eyes will be on possible exemptions and any hints of a diplomatic breakthrough. And let\u2019s not forget the Fed\u2014already juggling economic curveballs, officials may have yet another headache if rising import costs start stoking inflation concerns.<\/span><\/p>

Oil Balancing – OPEC turned down the oil tap a little in March, trimming production by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it tried to keep supply in check before ramping things up again in May. According to Bloomberg\u2019s latest survey, the group\u2019s total output now stands at 27.43 million bpd, with members being reminded to stick to their quotas. This cut is all part of OPEC\u2019s ongoing effort to keep oil markets steady and prices supported, despite unpredictable demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still set to move forward with its planned production hikes, adding 138,000 bpd in May after a similar bump in April. As usual, traders will be keeping a close eye on OPEC\u2019s next moves, since oil price stability remains a delicate balancing act\u2014especially with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting demand trends in the mix.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Move on After Dovish Fed Decision<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Stay safe – The gold market remains in the upward direction, hovering near recent highs as the Federal Reserve maintains a neutral monetary policy stance\u2014despite raising its inflation outlook and trimming its growth forecast. As widely expected, the Fed held interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. However, policymakers provided little forward guidance, leaving markets guessing about the timing of future rate moves. The updated dot plot projections remained unchanged from December, showing rates ending the year at 3.9%, with further declines to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. While the central bank appears in no rush to cut rates, it is adopting a more measured approach toward its balance sheet\u2014adding another layer of complexity to the market\u2019s outlook.<\/span><\/p>

Stake high – Geopolitical stakes remain high in Ukraine with renewed airstrikes escalating tensions and fueling market uncertainty. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian sites, including hospitals, while suggesting that Putin has effectively dismissed a comprehensive ceasefire. The renewed hostilities come after Putin\u2019s recent conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, in which the Russian leader reportedly conditioned any ceasefire on the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. With no immediate resolution in sight, geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk factor for global markets, potentially triggering further volatility in energy prices, equities, and safe-haven assets.<\/p>

Caution ahead – The US dollar saw little bid after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and reaffirmed its projection for two rate cuts in 2024. While the central bank revised its economic outlook, some analysts interpreted the announcement as dovish, reinforcing expectations for eventual easing. Risk assets bounced back following the Fed\u2019s commitment to rate cuts, with equities gaining traction as investor sentiment improved. However, the greenback faced renewed pressure, reflecting shifting rate expectations. The updated forecasts indicate that policymakers remain cautious, aiming to balance inflation risks with economic stability, leaving markets closely watching the timing of the first rate cut.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Choose Flight to Safety<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Hold still – The British pound remains supported ahead of the Bank of England\u2019s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 20 March, where policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%. The central bank had previously cut rates by 25 basis points in February, but rising geopolitical risks and tightening global financial conditions have reinforced expectations of a pause. The impact of US trade policies, particularly Trump\u2019s tariff measures, has already pushed UK bond yields higher, contributing to a stronger pound. While domestic economic indicators remain mixed, the BoE appears reluctant to continue easing in an environment where external shocks could sustain inflationary pressures. Markets will be watching for any forward guidance that could shape expectations for the BoE\u2019s next policy move, which is likely to influence sterling\u2019s trajectory in the near term.<\/span><\/p>

Hard hit – Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off this week as investors repriced risk in response to growing concerns over US economic stability. Even President Trump\u2019s economic team has acknowledged potential turbulence ahead, a shift that has fuelled risk aversion across asset classes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4%, while the S&P 500 extended its recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite suffered the most significant decline, plunging 4.5%. The tech sector led the decline, with the “Magnificent Seven” stocks driving the sell-off. The pullback reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, compounded by Trump\u2019s aggressive trade policies. The US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations remain unresolved, keeping markets on edge as investors assess potential tariff impacts on corporate earnings and economic growth.<\/p>

New high – Gold prices have staged a strong recovery, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid ongoing market volatility and geopolitical risks. Despite a slight cooling in inflation pressures, the latest US CPI data failed to alleviate broader recession fears. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of 0.3% and down from 0.5% in January. Although gold experienced a sharp decline at the end of February\u2014dropping over $130 to touch $2,833\u2014technical support at key moving averages provided a floor for prices, leading to a swift rebound above $2,900. This resilience suggests that bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants continuing to hedge against economic uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Retreat as Geopolitics Takes Over Monetary Policy<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Rally on hold – Markets are on edge as investors weigh the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on major US trading partners. The new measures\u201425% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a sharp increase in China duties to 20%\u2014went into effect on Tuesday. Canada wasted no time hitting back with its own round of immediate tariffs on US imports, while China responded with a 15% levy on American farm products like chicken and pork, set to take effect on March 10. However, Beijing’s relatively measured response left some analysts speculating that there\u2019s still room for negotiation with Washington. With trade tensions heating up, investors are bracing for potential market turbulence in the days ahead. The S&P 500 has tanked to its November lows just above the 5700 mark. Any major escalation in the trade spat could spark a deeper correction in the coming weeks.<\/span><\/p>

Geopolitical chessboard – Gold prices are taking a breather as traders lock in some profits after a strong recovery earlier this week. The price action is seemingly trying to hold onto its bullish momentum. Fundamental-wise, safe-haven demand continues to underpin gold, fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index this week. Adding to the global economic mix, China\u2019s National People’s Congress kicked off its annual session by reaffirming its 5% growth target for 2025, most likely as a defiant signal to Mr Trump\u2019s aggressive foreign policy. On the eastern front, Trump claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had expressed gratitude for U.S. support and signalled a willingness to sign a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral rights. Mixed statements such as this add yet another layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical chess match.<\/span><\/p>

Swift comeback – The euro flexed its muscles against most major currencies after the European Central Bank\u2019s latest interest rate move. As expected, the central bank trimmed rates by 25 basis points. But what really caught the market\u2019s attention was Christine Lagarde\u2019s tone during the press conference. Rather than signaling a dovish pivot, the ECB president struck a more hawkish note, stressing that future rate cuts would depend on incoming data. That cautious stance gave the euro a solid lift, as traders recalibrated their expectations for her next moves. Adding fuel to the rally, the euro is also buoyed by optimism over Europe’s growth following Germany’s proposal for a massive \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund. The plan is seen as a potential counterweight to global trade tensions, offering a boost to the region\u2019s economic outlook. The bullish news compound the bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar which stumbled across the board, dragged down by mounting concerns over the impact of tariffs on inflation and broader economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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28 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Jitters as Trump Goes Against Rest of the World<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cautious approach – Markets are gaining confidence as investors digest Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings, which reassured them about AI growth despite initial concerns over DeepSeek and weakening demand. While the company\u2019s profit outlook initially sparked some hesitation on Wall Street, Nvidia\u2019s stock rebounded after an early dip. At the same time, traders are closely watching President Trump\u2019s latest tariff threats, which have added to existing economic jitters. On Wednesday, he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union and reinstate paused duties on Canada and Mexico. However, the lack of clear details left markets guessing about the timeline and potential impact. The S&P 500 is trying to squeeze out modest gains the latest session, in an attempt to end its five-day streak of losses.<\/span><\/p>

Bouncing back – The euro-dollar exchange rate has pulled back to its mid-February lows around 1.0400 as the US Dollar remains strong amid a risk-off mood. Still, caution might be warranted as the remarkable strength of the US dollar in recent months has been challenged by a string of underwhelming economic reports\u2014ranging from a dip in consumer confidence to sluggish retail sales and weak consumer sentiment\u2014has shaken markets and fuelled concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors are now weighing whether these signals point to a temporary slowdown or a more persistent challenge ahead. Nevertheless, the greenback could benefit from erratic tariff decisions by Donald Trump against European and Japanese imports, making it the least vulnerable of the majors out there.<\/span><\/p>

Wild ride – Bitcoin\u2019s wild ride in its 6-figure valuation took a sharp turn downward as the digital gold plunged to its lowest level since November, dragging the broader crypto market down with it and erasing nearly half a trillion dollars in value. After soaring past $108,000 last month\u2014coinciding with Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration and his self-proclaimed status as the \u201cBitcoin President\u201d\u2014BTC is struggling to stay above $85,000. The selloff has been partly linked to growing investor frustration over Trump\u2019s unfulfilled promises nearly a month into his term, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. On a more technical level, expiring bitcoin options sitting in crypto exchanges, worth an estimated $3.9 billion, could expire out of the money, as most positions were set at higher price levels, further exacerbating market volatility. The crypto market also took another hit after a massive hack on the Bybit platform, described as the \u201cbiggest digital heist ever.\u201d Hackers managed to steal around $1.5 billion by gaining control of an Ethereum wallet on the Dubai-based exchange. The shock of the breach, combined with Bitcoin\u2019s price collapse, has sent ripples through the industry, intensifying concerns over security vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Unfettered Risk Appetite Keeps Brewing<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Safe bet – Sustained demand for gold keeps the chart trajectory upward as investors weigh monetary policy against geopolitical winds. Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period. This could discourage traders from making new bets, creating a headwind for the non-yielding metal. However, a renewed decline in US Treasury bond yields is keeping dollar bulls on the back foot, providing further support for gold prices. More importantly, the broader fundamentals still favour an upward trend for bullion, keeping the metal\u2019s two-month rally intact. Gold’s bullish momentum is fuelled by concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could spark a global trade war, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.<\/span><\/p>

Tables turned – The S&P 500 is inching up in a timid manner as market participants fret that a peace talk between the US and Russia without Ukraine could signal a dramatic shift in US foreign policy. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Donald Trump reached new heights after the latter took to social media to mock Zelensky, calling him a \u201cdictator without elections.\u201d Zelensky fired back, accusing Trump of falling for Russian disinformation regarding the war in Ukraine. The heated exchange followed a controversial meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war\u2014without Ukraine at the table. After the meeting, Trump suggested Ukraine had initiated the conflict, prompting a swift and sharp rebuttal from Zelensky. The rhetoric highlights the risk of the US pulling the plug on Kyiv\u2019s war effort, alienating its European allies in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Still hodling – Bitcoin continues to defy concerns from the Federal Reserve\u2019s latest meeting minutes, which signalled officials remain hesitant to cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed pointed to trade policies under the Trump administration as a potential obstacle to controlling inflation. Despite this cautious stance, Bitcoin continued its rally, holding steady as investors shrugged off rate uncertainty and focused on the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price tends to move in tandem with interest rate expectations because lower rates mean more liquidity in the market, making speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Added uncertainty from the Ukraine geopolitical twist might have convinced more investors to pour into the digital gold.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ukraine Optimism Offsets Trade Worries<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Inflation still hot – The much-anticipated U.S. inflation figure came out hotter than expected, throwing a wrench into hopes for near-term rate cuts. January\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.9%. The \u201ccore\u201d CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in even stronger at 3.3% versus the anticipated 3.1%\u2014marking the hottest inflation reading in months. These numbers bolster the case for monetary policy hawks who argue the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, prioritising the fight against inflation. However, President Trump took to social media, pushing back and insisting the U.S. needs lower interest rates.\u00a0<\/span>The U.S. dollar index initially spiked on the inflation report but later gave up gains to trade lower. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.65% following the data, keeping limited support to the greenback.<\/span><\/p>

Stabilisation factor – The oil price slump gained momentum as President Donald Trump took his first major step toward brokering an end to Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, just weeks after his inauguration. Trump took to social media to announce that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations immediately, adding that he would be calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to inform him of the conversation. A potential ceasefire could further weigh on oil prices if Trump pushes to roll back sanctions on Russia\u2019s energy sector. On a more fundamental level, the market\u2019s depressed sentiment has been fuelled by rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling that the Fed isn\u2019t rushing to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity and weaken oil demand.<\/span><\/p>

Steady climb – Wall Street reacted to the latest American CPI data with a knee-jerk selloff, but S&P 500 has found support and is still consolidating near its recent highs. A key factor? Reports that President Trump had a “productive” phone call with Russian President Putin about ending the Russia-Ukraine war, offering investors a glimmer of optimism, which would offset concerns with rising global trade tension, notably with the new administration\u2019s reciprocal tariffs. On the corporate side, the fourth-quarter earnings season rolls on. So far, more than 69% of S&P 500 companies have already released their results, and the majority are delivering pleasant surprises\u2014over 75% have topped Wall Street\u2019s forecasts, according to FactSet.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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7 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trade Spat Casts Shadow Over Sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Record high – Gold prices surged to yet another all-time high in this week\u2019s trading, driven by strong safe-haven demand as investors flock to the yellow metal amid rising uncertainty. Market nerves remain on edge as President Trump\u2019s unpredictable and potentially disruptive policy moves keep traders guessing. Meanwhile, China-U.S. trade tensions are heating up, with both nations escalating tariffs and taking further hostile business actions against each other this week. The EU may not be spared either after Trump doubled down on his plan to hike tariffs on the block, adding another layer of uncertainty to global trade dynamics. Experts fret that this \u201celevated trade policy uncertainty\u201d could drag on economic growth in the coming months, primarily by dampening business investment and weakening market confidence. Goldman Sachs has warned that the eurozone economy could suffer a \u201csizable hit to activity\u201d from the rise in trade tensions. With geopolitical and economic uncertainty mounting, gold continues its record-breaking rally, proving once again that when uncertainty reigns, gold shines.<\/p>

Mixed feelings – U.S. stocks have recouped their recent losses as they strive to hold onto this year\u2019s limited gains. While earnings from Alphabet and AMD fell short of expectations, Big Tech found support thanks to a strong rally in Nvidia. Alphabet\u2019s stock took a hit, sliding nearly 7%, after its fourth-quarter cloud revenue came in below estimates. The shortfall raised concerns that the company’s aggressive AI investments may take longer than expected to pay off. However, Nvidia emerged as a winner, climbing more than 5% as investors bet that the chipmaker could benefit from the ongoing AI spending spree. Overall, a retreat of the 10-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since December 2024 further added support to the market\u2019s rebound.<\/span><\/p>

Sluggish demand – Crude oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels of the year as fears of weakening demand rattled investors. The drop comes after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports, while U.S. stockpiles climbed for the second straight week. WTI crude hit its lowest point since December 31, 2024, as tensions between the top two consumers escalated. With China\u2014the world\u2019s largest oil importer\u2014facing economic headwinds, concerns are mounting over a potential slowdown in global energy demand. On Tuesday, China\u2019s State Council Tariff Commission announced a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with a 10% duty on American crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles, set to take effect next week. Meanwhile, fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing fears of weakening demand and adding further pressure to oil markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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31 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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AI Race and Safe Haven in Tandem<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tech correction – US tech stocks stabilised after plunging on Monday due to the sudden rise of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) app DeepSeek. The open source solution sent chipmaker Nvidia into a nosedive, triggering a broader selloff across the market. The turbulence followed DeepSeek\u2019s claim that its AI model was developed at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, prompting investors to rapidly reassess their bets on AI and the ROI on the costly infrastructure, and casting uncertainty over America\u2019s AI dominance. President Donald Trump called the moment \u201ca wake-up call\u201d for the US tech industry while downplaying concerns over the breakthrough, affirming that the US will remain a leading force in AI. For traders following the price action, unless the Nasdaq sinks below its 2-month lows around 20600 the index is merely consolidating near its historic high. The market\u2019s eventual resilience would prove the optimism surrounding AI investments that has fuelled much of the US stock market\u2019s surge over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>

ECB easing – The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its fifth rate cut on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points as it walks a tightrope between rising inflation and sluggish growth. After months of cooling, inflation in the eurozone is heating up again, hitting 2.4% in December – its third straight increase – just as the effects of cheaper energy start to fade. At the same time, the region\u2019s economy is stuck in neutral. Fresh data showed zero growth in the final quarter of 2024, falling short of economists\u2019 modest 0.1% forecast and following a 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. Commenting on the latest move, ECB President Christine Lagarde didn\u2019t sugarcoat the situation, admitting that the euro area economy is \u201cset to remain weak in the near term.\u201d In other words, while inflation is picking up, growth is taking a nap – leaving the ECB with the tricky job of keeping both in check. FX-wise, the single currency is far from being out of the woods as the US Fed stayed put with its interest rates unchanged, broadening the differential between the two economic entities.<\/span><\/p>

Shining again – Gold is back on its feet after dragging its feet for the past three months. The price has surged to a new all-time fuelled by strong safe-haven demand and technical buying. Investor jitters over the new US administration\u2019s trade and foreign policies – especially the potential for fresh tariffs – are keeping the marketplace on edge. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting on Wednesday with a clear signal: interest rates are staying unchanged for the foreseeable future. Policymakers acknowledged that \u201cinflation remains somewhat elevated,\u201d but Chair Jerome Powell downplayed any shift in stance, brushing off the change in wording as mere \u201clanguage clean-up.\u201d Powell steered clear of commenting on how President Trump\u2019s policies might influence the Fed\u2019s decisions. Markets, in turn, took the Fed\u2019s statement and Powell\u2019s press conference in stride, showing little reaction.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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24 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trump 2.0 May Complicate Fed Policy Course<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Technical recovery – The euro\u2019s current rebound is likely to be due to profit-taking after it hit a 26-month low earlier this year. General sentiment remains downbeat as the ECB keeps pushing in the loosening direction while the Fed is taking their feet off the pedal. President Christine Lagarde and other senior officials expressed support for additional rate cuts, potentially weakening the shared currency in the short term. Markets have already priced in another 25bp cut next Thursday, the fifth of the easing cycle, with expectations that interest rates will drop to 2% by year-end. Adding insult to injury would be the looming U.S. tariffs championed by Trump 2.0 elevating the risk of higher inflation in a fragile economy. Despite Lagarde\u2019s reassurance that the central bank is \u201cnot overly concerned\u201d about external factors, the market always finds a way to play in a cynical and pragmatic way and may keep the lid on the exchange rate.<\/p>

Verbal escalation – Gold is surfing on renewed geopolitical tensions following Mr Trump\u2019s inauguration. Stakes in the eastern front have been raised as the new U.S. president looks to boast his \u2018art of the deal\u2019 by settling the war in Ukraine in a swift manner. He delivered on his own social media platform Truth Social this week an ultimatum to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin saying that Russia should strike a deal or face even tougher economic consequences. Warnings of extending sanctions on all Russian exports to the United States and secondary penalties for nations conducting business with Moscow may push the latter to a corner if a deal fails to materialise, exacerbating the divide between the East and the West. The precious metal\u2019s solid run lately in spite of the dollar\u2019s strength signals growing demand for its safe haven status.<\/span><\/p>

Clash of the titans – The U.S. dollar has given back its recent gains as traders await a new catalyst from the central bank\u2019s interest rate decision next week. To spice things up, Powell & Co\u2019s cautious stance puts the Federal Reserve on a potential collision course with the new assertive president. Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs in a significant manner. As far as the market is concerned, the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25-4.5% next week, in the wake of three consecutive cuts since September. However, policymakers have adopted a more conservative approach for the year especially as Mr Trump\u2019s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes, and tighten immigration policies could complicate efforts to lower inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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UK Worries Weigh on Cable<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mini crisis – The pound has plunged to its lowest level in over a year, while UK borrowing costs have reached a 16-year high. The latest bond market sell-off reflects investors\u2019 growing concerns over UK assets and most importantly the contrasting signal between higher gilt yields and a falling currency shows investors\u2019 doubt over the country\u2019s economic outlook and the health of its public finances. The market turmoil has added pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faces increasing scrutiny, made an uncommon move by issuing a public statement for the second consecutive night, emphasising her \u201ciron grip\u201d on public finances. But despite government efforts to stabilise the markets, borrowing costs continue to climb. Addressing an urgent question in the House of Commons, Treasury Minister Darren Jones assured there was “no need for an emergency intervention” in financial markets. However, market participants still have the memory of the mini-budget crisis under the former prime minister Liz Truss in September 2022.<\/p>

Seasonal demand – Brent crude is staging a steady recovery to its 3-month high as the market demand has shifted its focus to colder weather than the last two winters, in both Europe and the United States, which could boost consumption of heating oil. A stronger U.S. dollar and an unexpected rise in U.S. stockpiles have not deterred buyers from shying away, with technical buying-the-dips compounding the seasonal factor. There are high hopes that the recent weak CPI print in China would spur more stimulus to tackle the country\u2019s chronic economic headache. In the meantime, a surge in travel across China ahead of the Lunar New Year has improved demand expectations, adding to rationales that would help the price stabilise in the near term.<\/p>

Bullish consolidation – The December U.S. jobs report was a blowout for the outgoing administration with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The print was a confirmation that would lessen the worry about the impact of high interest rates on the job market. While the market participants await further rejuvenation of the economy under Trump 2.0, the earnings season is kicking off next week with Q4 and full-year results from Wall Street\u2019s big banks. Investors anticipate impressive numbers as trading volumes have significantly exceeded typical fourth-quarter levels across all asset classes, fuelled by a growing participation from retail traders amid a bull run in both stock and cryptocurrency markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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3 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Investors Remain Confident about U.S. Growth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Parity in sight – The market is waiting for fresh catalysts in the first week of 2025 and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls might just give participants enough a reason to stay alert. A strong reading could be the straw that broke the euro\u2019s back as the single currency is inching towards the parity threshold, last seen in November 2022. The market consensus is that Trump\u2019s policies will sustain support for the greenback, as tax reliefs will put upward pressure on inflation and make further interest rate cuts less easy to justify, while tariffs against the eurozone would be seen as rubbing salt in the wound, undermining its growth outlook.\u00a0<\/p>

Steady recovery – Gold is striving for a comeback after it stabilised around its recent low of $2,600. The precious metal gains strength thanks to its safe-haven appeal, as investors turn their attention to President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s upcoming administration, set to begin on January 20. Anticipated policies from Trump, including higher import tariffs and lower taxes, are expected to benefit gold. More specifically, elevated tariffs could spark a global trade war, while reduced taxes may increase inflationary pressures in the United States. Gold often thrives in times of economic uncertainty as a safer asset and performs well during periods of rising inflation, as investors use it to hedge against price increases. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields fall to approximately 4.5%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, enhancing their attractiveness.<\/p>

Hesitant start – Stocks began January with a volatile trading session as investors locked in profits from notable 2024 winners like Apple and Tesla. The much-anticipated \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally, which typically boosts stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, failed to materialize as the market preferred the certainty of gains other than the promise of higher watermarks, leaving the S&P 500 with four straight days of losses into the year\u2019s end\u2014its first such streak since 1966. Still there is high hope that the rally will stay put as pro-growth and inflationary policies in the U.S. may keep fuelling the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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20 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fed Pours Cold Water Before Christmas<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed pressure – The euro is hovering near its 4-week low as traders price in a potential acceleration in the interest rate differential across the Atlantic. The ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place after its U.S. counterpart adopted a hawkish stance in the last meeting. In the meantime, inflation in the eurozone has become steady though not subdued with the November reading coming in below expectations at 2.2%. The market expects the central bank to stay the course on reducing borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate growth. While the Fed might hold back from another increase in January 2025, the ECB is expected to reduce interest rates at every meeting until June 2025, leaving the single currency struggle against other majors.<\/span><\/p>

Bullion dilemma – On the one hand, the prospect of lower global interest rates would make the non-yielding metal more appealing by lowering the cost of opportunity. On the other, a relatively strong U.S. economy and an unusually hawkish Fed might keep Treasury yields high, leaving gold in the shadows. How far the retracement may go would reflect bids on the mighty dollar as its recovery across the board so far has put the precious metal under pressure. The price action is consolidating as liquidity starts to dry out going into Christmas, but it would be too soon to call for a bearish reversal.<\/span><\/p>

Close call – Stock markets saw sharp pullbacks after the Federal Reserve commented on a \u2018closer call\u2019 on its loosening policy. As widely anticipated, the U.S. central bank lowered its key interest rate this Wednesday by 25 basis points, the third consecutive cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022. However, policymakers struck a cautionary note on their next move. Inflation has been holding steadily above target against the backdrop of uncertain economic growth on a global macro level, prompting the Fed to slow down on its monetary easing path, with indications that there probably would be only two small cuts in 2025. The decision has given risk assets such as tech stocks which have been front-running the yield curve a reason to take a breather, sending the S&P and Nasdaq indices off their recent peaks.<\/span><\/p>

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13 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Anticipating Another U.S. Rate Cut<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar recovery – The U.S. dollar is bouncing back across the board as traders reposition ahead of the last Federal Reverse rate decision of the year. The market overwhelmingly anticipates an additional 25-basis-point rate cut in the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. However the persistence of sticky inflation might put the brakes on the pace of future rate cuts, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England might trim their respective rates faster in the face of stalling economies. The prospect of this differential could prove particularly beneficial for the greenback.\u00a0<\/p>

Gold consolidation – Bullion has pulled back from its 3-week high as the market digests a crucial regime change in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad dynasty last weekend left a void in an increasingly turbulent region and exposed Iran, its former ally, prompting traders to ponder major stakeholders\u2019, namely the U.S. and Russia and their proxies\u2019 next move on the geopolitical chessboard. As a result, heightened uncertainty may keep safe haven seekers busy as the new year could reserve additional surprises. In the meantime, news of physical buying by the People\u2019s Bank of China may offer further support.<\/span><\/p>

S&P high watermark – The U.S. index is still holding on to its all-time high as investors bet on a downward trajectory of the interest rates. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October’s 2.6% annual increase, but in line with economists’ forecasts. Participants in the rally have so far shrugged off economists\u2019 view of Trump’s proposed policies\u2014such as imposing high tariffs on imports, cutting corporate taxes, and restricting immigration\u2014as potentially inflationary. The optimism may live on as long as evidence shows a lack of an upside surprise in inflation data.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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06 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Job Report Sends U.S. Dollar into Retreat<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar pullback – The latest U.S. job data showed a rise of the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% in November. The greenback has been pulling back as traders braced for the last nonfarm payrolls of the year. Before the report, the market had priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut on December 18, but that probability has now climbed to 87%. The prevailing sentiment is that Fed officials are already inclined toward a rate cut, and it would take a much stronger report to change their stance. The market now expects 90 basis points of easing next year, up from the previous expectation of 82 basis points, offering fragile support to the dollar in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Oil stabilisation – WTI crude steadied around its 3-month low after the OPEC+ group which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia postponed its planned production increase amid sluggish global demand, notably due to China\u2019s economic struggle and competition from non-member producers like Brazil and Argentina. The recent lows also corresponds to the trough seen in December 2021, indicating the market\u2019s concern about the lingering supply and demand imbalance. Market participants may look to thread the needle with their year\u2019s end positioning as the price walks on thin ice.<\/span><\/p>

Trump effect – Bitcoin’s value soared past the $100,000 mark after Trump announced plans to nominate former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the regulatory body. Atkins is widely regarded as more cryptocurrency friendly than the incumbent Gary Gensler. The president-elect had earlier vowed to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital” and his celebration on social media with messages like “Congratulations Bitcoiners” and “You’re welcome!” would draw more public attention to the digital asset. Traders have started to bag some profits but sentiment supported by the trend remains overwhelmingly positive.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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29 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Final Push as Markets Look to Regain Volatility<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Calm before volatility –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Trading volumes have thinned around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday this week but market lethargy may give place to renewed volatility in a busy data-driven week. Investors are likely to take advantage of the last nonfarm payrolls on Friday and reallocate their books before going into the Christmas holiday season. Until then weak tech earnings and the Nvidia sell-off could continue to be the theme that has been driving major U.S. indices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Oil uncertainty –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Oil prices stabilise as traders look for signals from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on the 1st of December. The market widely expects production cuts from January. However, artificial restraints on supply may not suffice to lift depressed prices in the current environment. Global fundamentals remain uncertain at best as bidders may be reluctant to hold large positions into the new year with American protectionism looming as Trump is scheduled to retake the reins.<\/span><\/p>

Lost shine –\u00a0<\/span>Gold remains under pressure weighed down by the recent recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. Meanwhile physical investments in China, the precious metal’s No.1 consumer country, have tanked amid growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical friction with the West. The price is hovering above the $2600 mark and trying to find support and now the question is whether bullion\u2019s safe haven status would bring in more inflows in the weeks leading to the year\u2019s end.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Market Confidence Fuels Tech and Digital Assets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Arms race – Russia missile strikes on Ukraine in response to the use of Western made missiles by its neighbour have triggered another round of escalation in the 1000-day conflict. What worries traders is whether this could open doors for more unprecedented events in the months to come. Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen have held their ground and found renewed interests as market participants look to hedge their risk appetite.<\/p>\n

Under pressure – US indices are holding onto their gains as investors anticipate a 25 basis point cut by the Fed at its December meeting. High watermarks in US equities reflect the market\u2019s confidence in its economy, offering better yields in a lower interest rate environment as well as safety backed by the American government. Individual stocks have found a boost from bright quarterly results from the likes of Nvidia, furthering cementing the confidence, so much that even the news of a possible breakup of Alphabet, parent of Google by the US Department of Justice have left the market unfazed.<\/p>\n

To the moon – Bitcoin continues to stay well-supported as it pushes its way to the landmark $100,000. Fundamentally, expectations of a more friendly business environment with an end to scrutiny from US regulators, growing popularity in bitcoin ETFs as well as escalations in geopolitical events bringing in more flows are major tailwinds for the digital asset. Technically, the question is who dares to say \u2018this is good enough\u2019 and put their money where their mouth is by taking the other side of the trade. Until then the momentum may stay strong.<\/p>\n

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15 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Assets Push Forward as Trump Secures both Houses<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dream team momentum -The market is on its toes as President-elect Donald Trump taps into personal ties to shape the next government. His comeback may have a large impact as a mix of tax cuts, immigration control and trade tariffs could go through with the blessing of a Republican-controlled Congress. The US dollar\u2019s strength and overall volatility can barely hide expectations of a dramatic shift in US policies.<\/p>

Euro\u2019s struggle. – Whispers of parity are back in the market, a reminiscence of the energy crisis back in 2022. This time around, investors fear that Mr Trump will be back to take care of his unfinished business with more tariffs. On the ECB\u2019s monetary policy, faster interest rate cuts than in the United States would put the single currency under further pressure.<\/p>

Crypto president – Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $90,000 is a telltale sign that traders are embracing the upcoming US administration for the best, and potentially the worst. The crypto industry is betting on a friendlier regime to trigger a broader adoption, leading up to another round of bull market. Meanwhile, outperformance by digital gold compared to altcoins may suggest traders\u2019 hedging of possible escalation in geopolitical disputes.<\/p>

Tech optimism – Stock market sentiment remains risk-on as a lower interest rate environment compounds the prospect of Republicans\u2019 laissez-faire agenda with tax cuts and looser regulations. Options players are piling into riskier assets notably the technology sector which they believe could reap a massive windfall from Trump\u2019s victory, supporting the current rally.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Day After: Global Market Reactions to Trump\u2019s Victory<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Donald Trump’s confirmation as the next US president has boosted stocks and assets that are seen as favourable to his administration.\u00a0 His agenda is set to bolster traditional industries such as construction, infrastructure, and energy. The policies announced by Donald Trump during his campaign were generally seen as inflationary,\u00a0due to tariffs\u00a0and onshoring, pro-growth, and as adding to the already burgeoning federal deficit, thanks to proposed tax cuts. How these policies affect the economic backdrop is likely to be one key driver of US stock market returns in the next four years.<\/p>

In the US, stocks soared last night to record highs with the S&P 500 jumping 2.5% to close at 5,929.04, while the Dow Jones surged 3.6%, reaching 43,729.93. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite advanced 3% to 18,983.47. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.435% from 4.411% late on Tuesday.<\/p>

Stocks in Asia recovered from early losses after US stocks jumped to record levels as investors tried to assess the impact of Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House on the global economy. The Hang Seng climbed 2% in Hong Kong, and the Shanghai Composite was 2.6% up by the end of the session.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the Chinese government reported that exports jumped nearly 13% in October compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years. However, the Nikkei slipped 0.3% on the day in Japan, reflecting worries over the potential for a revival of trade tensions under a Trump administration.<\/p>

The FTSE 100 and European stocks pushed higher in the Thursday early morning session as the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0(BoE) is\u00a0expected to cut interest rates again at noon. Money markets are strongly betting on a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut \u2014 that the benchmark rate will fall from its\u00a0current level of 5%\u00a0to 4.75%. It is the first announcement since the UK government unveiled their budget last week and comes as CPI\u00a0inflation\u00a0and\u00a0wage growth\u00a0continue to cool.<\/p>

Traders are now turning their attention to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England\u2019s decisions on interest rates later today. The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates again this evening by 25 basis points, amid a moderating inflation rate and a softening labour market.<\/p>

However, analysts have warned that it is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and concerns that he might seek significant influence over the central banks\u2019 policy decisions, that will be the main driver in the global financial markets.<\/p>

The pound dived against the dollar, following Trump\u2019s\u00a0claimed victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. The pound\u2019s decline marks a significant sell-off as traders brace for a shift in US economic policy under the prospect of a second Trump administration. Yesterday the US dollar surged to its largest single-day gain since March 2020, climbing 1.5% against a basket of major currencies.<\/p>

Gold prices were lower as investors moved away from the safe haven and into assets that could benefit under the new Trump administration, with spot gold currently trading lower at $2,665.00 per ounce. The drop in gold signals a broader market reaction to the US presidential election, which is dominating investor sentiment this week.<\/p>

The Fed\u2019s outlook to be announced later today, could also influence the direction of gold in the coming weeks, as rising rates tend to weigh on the precious metal.<\/p>

Oil markets were pressured by the results from the US elections and the latest weekly US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, with Brent crude futures trading at $71.87 per barrel. Oil prices have shown a dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump\u2019s victory.<\/p>

A new Trump administration would favour domestic fossil fuel producers as he aims to enhance America’s energy security. Approximately two thirds of the exchange-traded fund iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IOGP.AS) is held in US-listed assets. Trump is also likely to prioritise increased domestic oil and gas production.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trading Trump (vs) Harris - Election Anxiety Spikes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The FTSE 100 and European stocks are showing a mixed picture on Monday as traders anxiously await the outcome of the US presidential election, as well as a decision on\u00a0UK interest rates\u00a0from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0on Thursday, which is expected to make a quarter-point cut for the second time this cycle, taking UK interest rates to 4.75%.<\/p>

The U.S. election could bring unprecedented market swings across various asset classes and will shape the direction of the global financial markets and geopolitics for the next four years, with potential policy changes impacting stocks, commodities, forex, and other assets. Historically, election uncertainty has led to extreme volatility. During the 2020 election, financial markets experienced a $5 trillion fluctuation in market value in the weeks preceding and following the election: the VIX (Volatility Index) jumped by over 50%, and global markets experienced turbulence throughout the election cycle.<\/p>

Traders around the globe, are closely watching as Kamala Harris, running for the Democratic Party, races against leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. The outcome of the election will define the policies of the next administration which would have a tremendous impact on economic trends, international trade, and market stability.<\/p>

The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges.<\/p>

This volatility may present both risks and opportunities in the trading environment, therefore it would be prudent for traders to keep their trading accounts sufficiently funded in advance. This will allow them to manage margin requirements effectively, capitalise on potential opportunities, and mitigate any market risks.<\/p>

Potential Implications and Market Reactions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The race remains neck-and-neck as we approach tomorrow\u2019s vote, and investors have been positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump.<\/p>

In the US, Trump would likely shake up the status quo far more significantly than Harris, who has served as President Joe Biden\u2019s vice president for the past four years.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s focus on fiscal expansion and tariffs which would is expected to trigger higher inflation and would have a strong influence in Treasury and FX markets, as well as risk-on in equity markets favouring US cyclicals. Tax cuts would also be expected as part of Trump\u2019s economic policy.<\/p>

In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump\u2019s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies. Markets are pricing in some of the risks associated with Trump returning to the White House, suggesting that a Harris victory would trigger a bullish move for emerging markets, while factoring in the likely impact of higher taxes on earnings and reinforcement of wider macro forces.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s tariff plans carry particular risks for China for levies of 60% or more, which will increase pressure on the Chinese economy while the government is already struggling to revive the faltering economy.<\/p>

Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, may also come under pressure with tariff increases. The Yuan\u2019s one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years last month.<\/p>

Developing nations such as South Korea and Taiwan, with high exposure to the US and strong reliance on Chinese inputs could also face pressures from such an escalating trade war, as they would be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s statements on the US commitment to alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and to Ukraine\u2019s efforts to defeat Russia, have weighed on local bonds of certain eastern European countries and lifted Ukraine\u2019s dollar debt on speculation that Trump\u2019s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.<\/p>

What if the Result\u00a0is Contested?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The counting of the votes may only be the start of a new process that financial markets will struggle to interpret.<\/p>

Markets are expected to be volatile not only on the night of the election, but potentially in the days or weeks to follow. Declarations and rumours around key swing states like Pennsylvania will be particularly important and algo-driven markets could be particularly sensitive to such risk.\u00a0<\/p>

The greatest risk for global markets to consider would be if the election result is bitterly contested afterwards by the \u2018losing\u2019 party. Because the polls remain so close, the election creates a great deal of uncertainty with traders trying to price for a binary outcome. Key policies, particularly around trade, tariffs and the outlook for the US debt, will be greatly affected by the outcome and so the results will drive price action.\u00a0<\/p>

The biggest uncertainty facing the market is if the result is contested. It took days to declare Biden officially the winner in the 2020 election, while Trump contested the result almost until the January inauguration. The highest risk is that neither side is willing to concede, leading to a high-stakes legal roller coaster, which could in theory last not days but weeks. This outcome has the largest potential for a negative risk catalyst in the global markets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Oil prices heading for their biggest weekly gains in over a year <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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04 October 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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After a night of intense air strikes by Israel on Beirut, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in today\u2019s session. Oil prices posted their biggest one-day rise in almost a year, surging by more than 5%.<\/p>

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to around $77.90 a barrel. Weekly prices have experienced their biggest weekly percentage point gain since early 2023. Traders are concerned that potential supply disruptions may occur after President Joe Biden suggested that American officials were \u201cdiscussing\u201d whether to support an Israeli attack on Iran\u2019s oil facilities.<\/p>

In other news around the world, traders are watching the US jobs report due to be released at 13:30 BST today. With inflation declining, the crucial parameter now is the job market. According to consensus estimates reported by Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to show 150,000 jobs were added last month up from 142,000 reported in August, while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2%.<\/p>

Traders are trying to forecast how aggressively the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts. In the above scenario, the Fed will probably cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, smaller than its half-point cut in September. In Asia, China\u2019s stimulus package announced recently, continued to support markets higher into Friday\u2019s trading, with the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closing the session 2% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also closed 0.2% higher this morning, following a volatile week of trading caused by central bank announcements.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Pound Rally Against US Dollar Continues ahead of Interest Rate Decisions.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The European markets as well as the FTSE 100 are on the rise today, as investors are focusing on key central bank decisions later in the week from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0and the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>

The US Federal Reserve is expected to move towards cutting interest rates more aggressively\u00a0as it meets today and tomorrow.<\/p>

A 25 basis-point reduction by the US Federal Reserve would be a pivotal move, as investors hope that the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth. A more aggressive 50 basis points cut on the other hand would be the biggest single rate cut in 16 years triggering concerns of economic trouble ahead.<\/p>

The likelihood of a 25 basis-point reduction fell to 37% from 50% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision this Thursday. The market expectations are leaning towards holding rates at their current level.<\/p>

The pound has rallied against the dollar ahead of these major interest rate decisions, with the US currency trading near its lowest levels of the year.<\/p>

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12th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Returning to Global Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk appetite has returned to the markets after the world\u2019s largest technology companies made a bounce on Wall Street on Wednesday.<\/p>

Europe\u2019s Stoxx 600 index advanced by 1.2% yesterday, the most single day jump since mid-August, while Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.2%, treasuries were steady, and the dollar remained flat.<\/p>

In Asia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed the most in a month, supported by gains in the technology sector. In Japan, the Nikkei index reversed its seven-day losing streak, while the yen declined from its strongest level against the dollar since December.<\/p>

Traders are still focusing on interest rate developments, with the FTSE 100 and European stocks joining the global rally today, advancing in early trade ahead of an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank.<\/p>

US inflation data for August supported the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but fueled speculation that the move will be gradual.<\/p>

Market sentiment has been characterised by optimism that the Fed will drive the US economy to a soft landing and fear that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut rates. Swaps have now priced in a 25-basis point rate reduction next week, however there is an argument over the path for further reductions.<\/p>

Oil continues its gains from Wednesday as Hurricane Francine destroyed key oil-producing zones in the Gulf of Mexico triggering bearish bets, while Gold is still trading above $2,515 per ounce.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Global Stocks Tumble as Flight from Risk Continues<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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4th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A global flight from risk assets continues on Wednesday due to fears around the US economy and a sharp decline in US stocks especially in the big tech sector on Tuesday after the labour day holiday weekend.<\/p>

Traders are fearing additional swings, looking for clues on whether the US economy is threatened by a recession, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s next adjustments to its monetary policy.<\/p>

A US job openings report expected today will indicate whether there is further cooling in the labor market, marking a 5th<\/sup> consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. The market is shifting its focus from inflation to concerns over economic growth, causing turmoil in stocks and other risk assets.<\/p>

Traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing its policy in September by reducing rates by more than two full percentage points over the next 12 months, this is the steepest drop since the 1980s outside of a downturn. Furthermore, payrolls data is due on Friday and will be crucial in defining the magnitude of the initial rate cut.<\/p>

In currencies, the dollar snapped a five-day winning streak whilst the yen extended its gains.<\/p>

Oil dropped further after crashing to the lowest level this year, with Brent futures falling to around $73 a barrel due to growing concerns that weak demand and restored supplies from OPEC will create a new surplus.<\/p>

Gold futures are hovering above $2,515 per ounce, down from their all-time high last month but still up almost 22% year to date. The precious metal remains the traders\u2019 favourite hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, gaining additional support from expected Fed rate cuts later this month and ongoing EM central bank buying. Traders are pricing in a 31% probability of a 50-basis point cut instead of 25 basis points according to the CME FedWatch – CME Group<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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24th August 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Powell\u2019s keynote address at Jackson Hole sets the tone for rate cuts<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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The recent statements by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, in his keynote address at the Jackson Hole meeting on the August 23, signaled a potential shift in the central bank’s approach to monetary policy. The indication of a forthcoming reduction in interest rates reflects a response to the current economic indicators, such as the proximity of inflation rates to the Fed’s target and the uptick in unemployment figures. The balance between price stability and maximum employment is a delicate one, and the Fed’s dual mandate requires careful navigation of these economic waters. <\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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11th Sep 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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CPI Boss Fight: Will the Fed Swing 25 or 50?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market is fighting for control when the August CPI is released on Thursday. The two things that seem exciting about a Fed cut next Wednesday are the amount and the rhetoric. The Fed may still cut 25 basis points if the CPI runs hot, particularly in core services (shelter, transportation, medical; ex-energy services), but it will be more tough about what comes next. However, a cold print would intensify rumors of a 50 bps move.

Core: 3.1% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), headline 2.9% y\/y (0.3% m\/m), according to consensus. Composition is the trapdoor. From February to May, core services averaged 0.2% m\/m (~2.4% annualized); a 0.3% increase in August would raise the 3-month annualized pace to over 3.6%, which would feed concerns about “sticky inflation.” Indeed, companies are absorbing a portion of the tariff charge, lowering the prices of some commodities, and the PPI was unexpectedly lower. Wage pressure, however, is found in services inflation, which is also where the CPI index has significant weight.

Because of this, stocks feel both justified and jittery at record highs. Bulls claim that a weaker PPI combined with worsening labor data means that easing is likely. Bears counter: reducing sticky services could lead to stagflation. A hotter core is likely to rocket front-end yields, knock richly priced growth, and give the dollar a knee-jerk bounce (which some strategists would fade on labor concerns). Rate-sensitives and long duration are the pivot.

While gold hovers around records on cut hopes and oil slid as U.S. inventories built\u2014an economic cool-breeze tale that markets prefer to hear before CPI\u2014futures are green entering the print, aided by AI tailwinds (Oracle just staged a historic pop). As inflation turns out to be a little firmer than anticipated, the European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to hold, with both hawks and doves bolstering their cases but likely providing tight guidance.

Trader’s perspective (not advice): \u2022 Hot core (\u22650.3\u20130.4% m\/m): Front-end yields \u2191; 2025 cut route reduced; gold softens; risk-off wobble.
\u2022 Cool core (\u22640.2% m\/m): higher yields, risk-on, bigger-cut buzz, gold steady\/up, and dollar easing.
\u2022 Mixed: The Fed’s statement becomes the market’s metronome; composition comes before the headline.

In summary, the mix is more important than the level. Even if the initial cut comes on time next week, the glide path to easier policy becomes more difficult if that engine picks up speed again. Keep an eye on key services. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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27th August 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Wall Street is mesmerized by Nvidia, yet risks lurk in the background.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The market’s fixation on one firm is overshadowing much larger threats that are simmering beneath the surface as Wall Street waits for Nvidia’s earnings.<\/p>

Nvidia is now more than just a stock to investors; it’s a gauge of the mood of the market. The chipmaker is now carrying the burden of an entire rally after reaching previously unheard-of heights on the artificial intelligence boom. Analysts and traders alike are keeping an eye on Nvidia to see if it can produce strong margins, rapid revenue growth, and evidence that the demand for AI-powered processors is still unquenchable on a global scale.<\/p>

The stakes are high: a beat might rekindle the exuberant momentum that has kept Wall Street afloat for months, while a failure on earnings or guidance could send shockwaves through equities. To put it briefly, Nvidia controls the market’s sentiment in addition to releasing financial data.<\/p>

However, a political tempest is brewing in Washington as Wall Street is enthralled by a single ticker sign. The independence of the U.S. central bank is being called into question by former President Donald Trump’s attempt to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Although the markets haven’t moved much, undermining the Fed could have significant effects on long-term interest rates, inflation, and the dollar.<\/p>

Main Street, meanwhile, is raising its own warnings. With more Americans reporting that finding a job is becoming more difficult and inflation forecasts gradually rising, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell in August. The forecast for the upcoming six months dropped to its lowest point in years, indicating that people are becoming increasingly concerned about the direction of the economy.<\/p>

Nvidia’s story may have enthralled Wall Street, but investors who overlook the political and economic undertones run the danger of being caught off guard. Sometimes, the shadows\u2014rather than the spotlight\u2014present the true threat.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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30 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Important Economic Events to Keep an Eye on This Week for Active Investors<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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There are a number of important macroeconomic events this week that might have a big impact on market sentiment and policy expectations. It will be essential for active investors to stay informed.<\/p>

Germany’s preliminary June CPI data, a crucial determinant of the ECB’s inflation outlook, is released on Monday. Additionally, the UK will release its Q1 national accounts, which will include capital flows from the banking sector and data on corporate investments.
China, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States will all release manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday. Given that growth forecasts are still shaky, these indicators will provide important information about the state of the global industrial economy.<\/p>

South Korea’s inflation figures and Eurozone unemployment data will be the main topics of discussion on Wednesday. A number of mid-sized businesses in the luxury and retail industries in Europe will release their earnings, giving an indication of consumer demand following the second quarter.<\/p>

Perhaps the most significant day of the week is Thursday. The focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls report (NFP). Expectations for the Fed’s next actions, and consequently the US currency and Treasury yields, could be directly impacted by any shocks in job creation, wage growth, or unemployment. Investors will also look for clues about upcoming rate decisions in the minutes of the ECB’s most recent meeting. Furthermore, considering the prominence of the service sector in developed economies, global services PMI numbers are due.<\/p>

Last but not least, Friday will be calmer because of the US Independence Day vacation, which usually lowers liquidity in international markets and could increase volatility elsewhere. However, further information about the state of the European economy will be provided by Germany’s industrial orders as well as EU housing and PPI data.<\/p>

In summary, traders are facing a high-stakes week as central bank narratives, employment, and inflation all play a role.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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23 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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As tensions in the Middle East worsen, oil prices rise, and markets are on edge.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran, which caused a dramatic increase in oil prices and heightened concerns about a bigger geopolitical crisis, global markets are on high alert. Oil futures have already jumped above $100, and some analysts have warned that prices might reach $130 or higher per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.<\/p>

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes, handling around 20% of the world’s oil traffic. Any disturbance would cause shockwaves in the energy markets, raise the price of gasoline globally, and further strain already precarious global supply systems.<\/p>

The stock markets are responding cautiously. Gold continues to be a reliable conventional safe haven during times of international unrest, while stock indices are declining as investors avoid risk. There are indications of technical weakness in the SP500, which could pave the way for another adjustment. In the meantime, institutional purchasing is fueling a spectacular bullish breakthrough in the oil markets. Although gold and bitcoin are still consolidating, they may rise quickly if tensions keep rising.<\/p>

Additionally, the dispute poses a threat of expanding beyond the current U.S.-Iran conflict. Potential cyberattacks, sabotage, and economic reprisal are causes for increasing anxiety. Global powers like China and Russia may try to safeguard their interests, while regional players like Israel, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are keeping a careful eye on things. The deputy director of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, made a bold statement after the U.S. strikes, saying that “several countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.” Russia has sent a strong message to Washington by formally denouncing the assaults as a flagrant breach of international law and pledging its support for Iran.<\/p>

Markets might collapse rapidly if Iran turns from threats to action. Investors and traders should prepare for high volatility.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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19 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Regional Conflict Between Israel and Iran Could Upend World Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Israeli-Iranian confrontation is much more than a regional geopolitical quarrel. If the situation worsens, a complicated network of economic concerns might jeopardize the stability of the world economy.<\/p>

Nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny passageway at the center of this threat. Even a little interruption may cause oil prices to rise sharply, possibly pushing crude well above $120 or even $150 per barrel. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, central banks are already having difficulty stabilizing prices, and this energy shock would swiftly translate into a fresh inflationary surge.<\/p>

Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be faced with a difficult choice in such a situation: either maintain high interest rates to fight inflation and run the risk of a catastrophic recession, or restore huge liquidity to the economy at the expense of undermining confidence in fiat currencies.<\/p>

There would probably be a period of intense volatility in the financial markets. Investors would rush into hard assets like gold, silver, commodities, and strategic real estate, while major stock indices might see severe corrections.<\/p>

This kind of crisis, however, has the potential to quicken a current trend: de-dollarization. Yuan or euros are already being used to settle some energy contracts. The U.S. dollar’s long-standing dominance would be called into question by a protracted crisis of confidence, which would have significant repercussions for the global monetary system.<\/p>

The systemic risks are real, but full-scale escalation is still preventable. A regional war can swiftly turn into a worldwide financial shock in the connected world of today.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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5 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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ECB Goes Loose as Global Trade Remains Uncertain<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Accommodative stance – The ECB’s eighth consecutive interest rate cut, down to 2%, signals an aggressive push to boost the bloc\u2019s economy amid lingering fallout from Trump’s trade war. With inflation now below the ECB\u2019s 2% target and core component showing signs of softening, the central bank is acting to ensure monetary conditions remain supportive. The cut had been anticipated by markets, but it underscores a broader shift toward policy easing as the ECB contends with external pressures, particularly from deteriorating global trade conditions and slower growth. Investors responded to the downward revision for 2026 growth with modest optimism and confidence that the ECB will remain accommodative. Expectations are now forming around a potential pause in July, and markets are likely to remain sensitive to future data releases, particularly if inflation pressures unexpectedly resurface or Trump\u2019s trade rhetoric escalates further.<\/span><\/p>

Jobs catalyst – U.S. stock indices edge higher as investors await the key non-farm payrolls report, in order to assess how Donald Trump’s trade policies are impacting the job market and the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate outlook. While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady this month, markets are pricing in at least two cuts by year-end. Despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, preferring to wait for more economic clarity amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have taken effect, with the threat of broader levies in July. Investors are now closely monitoring trade talks, particularly a potential call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.<\/p>

Supply expansion – Oil prices declined amid growing signs that Saudi Arabia is pushing for another increase in output, reinforcing market concerns over a potential supply glut in the second half of the year. The proposed increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day underscores a strategic shift toward defending market share rather than prioritising price stability. This comes as the kingdom aims to capitalise on seasonal peak demand during summer months. However, such a move also heightens risks of oversupply, especially with inventories already showing signs of building and global demand forecasts remaining vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties. A more aggressive supply expansion may exacerbate downward pressure on prices. Compounding the bearish sentiment, Saudi Aramco\u2019s price cut to Asia, though smaller than anticipated, signals weakening demand in key import markets.\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fiscal Strains Boost Bitcoin At Expense of Commodities<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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New high – Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high above $111,000 on Thursday, extending its 2025 bull run even as U.S. equity markets pulled back. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to defy broader risk-off sentiment, driven by accelerating institutional inflows and growing regulatory clarity. Momentum has also been bolstered by progress on the regulatory front. The GENIUS Act \u2013 a bill designed to provide a framework for stablecoin regulation \u2013 cleared a key procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate this week. Market participants and crypto advocates view it as a positive step toward removing uncertainty in the digital asset space. With regulatory tailwinds, strong inflows, and sustained institutional confidence, bitcoin’s rise is increasingly being seen not just as speculative mania, but as a maturing asset class solidifying its role in the financial system.<\/p>

Output hike – Oil prices fell, pressured by expectations of increased output from major producers and rising concerns about global demand amid U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The sell-off was triggered by reports from Bloomberg that OPEC+ is considering a third consecutive production hike, with one proposal involving a July increase of 411,000 barrels per day \u2013 triple the group’s previously planned rise. The potential supply boost comes as oil markets already grapple with subdued demand signals, amplifying downside risks. In parallel, investors are growing uneasy over mounting U.S. debt. A tax-cut and spending bill through Congress have added to fears about fiscal sustainability, shaking broader market confidence. All eyes now turn to OPEC+\u2019s June 1 meeting for clarity on the cartel\u2019s next move.<\/p>

Critical juncture – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax-and-spending bill by a single vote, enacting much of Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda while intensifying fears over the nation\u2019s ballooning debt. The legislation is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. Markets reacted with mixed signals. U.S. stock futures edged higher after the bill\u2019s passage, but Treasury yields climbed, reflecting investor anxiety about government borrowing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faced fresh selling pressure as global confidence in American fiscal discipline continues to erode, aggravated by Trump\u2019s unpredictable tariff policy and mounting international skepticism toward the stability of U.S. assets. As political divisions deepen and long-term fiscal reform remains elusive, the market sees the U.S. finding itself at a critical juncture.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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15 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Uncertainty Reigns as Geopolitical Talks Unfold<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed optimism – Bitcoin traded higher helped by renewed institutional flows back into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The rebound in ETF activity came as inflation worries eased and trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of de-escalation. Lower-than-expected CPI helped bolster risk appetite and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates later this year. Despite the improved backdrop, market uncertainty, especially over global trade dynamics, continues to cap gains. Traders are expected to watch Friday\u2019s producer price data and Fed commentary closely for further cues.<\/p>

Fragile peace – Ukraine and Russia may hold long-awaited talks in Turkey today, but uncertainty shrouds the summit amid conflicting signals and a lack of high-level participation. Despite calling for the talks himself, Russian President Putin will not be attending. Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he will make a final decision on whether to attend after meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. US President Trump, who had signalled openness to adjusting his Middle East visit to join the summit, will also be absent. With global pressure mounting, both US and European leaders have warned that Moscow faces fresh sanctions if it fails to engage seriously and agree to a ceasefire.<\/span><\/p>

Supply concern – Oil prices fell amid rising expectations of a US-Iran nuclear agreement that could lead to sanctions relief and increased Iranian oil exports. President Trump signalled that a deal was \u201cvery close,\u201d with Tehran having \u201csort of\u201d agreed to the terms. An Iranian official also indicated willingness to proceed in exchange for sanctions relief, following four rounds of talks in Oman. Despite this diplomatic progress, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions targeting Iran\u2019s missile production and oil export networks, underscoring the fragile nature of the ongoing negotiations. Market sentiment was further pressured by a surprise rise in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a build of 3.5 million barrels last week, contrary to analyst expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw, fuelling concerns of oversupply.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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08 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Art of Deal Strikes Again<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Suspense deal – Gold prices slipped as optimism over a potential US-UK trade deal weighed on safe-haven demand. The move followed Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent agreement, with a press briefing scheduled for 2 p.m. GMT. The prospect of easing trade tensions has led investors to reduce gold exposure, favoring risk assets instead. Recent gains in gold, which recently hit record highs above $3,500\/oz, have largely been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive tariff rhetoric. However, the appetite for the metal appears to be softening as signs of diplomatic progress emerge. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar added further pressure, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Market sentiment remains cautious, though. While investor interest in gold remains historically elevated, demand from the jewellery sector has faltered, limiting upward momentum. Looking ahead, traders will watch for confirmation of the US-UK deal and any developments in US-China negotiations. If diplomacy gains traction, gold may trend lower in the near term, while a breakdown could trigger another spike in safe-haven flows.<\/p>

Timid recovery – Oil prices rebounded following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a forthcoming trade deal\u2014widely expected to be with the UK\u2014boosting market sentiment amid lingering concerns over global demand. The move offers a political win for Trump ahead of crucial US-China trade talks and has helped lift crude off recent lows sparked by tariffs and OPEC+ supply adjustments. While oil has faced downward pressure in recent weeks due to fears of a global slowdown and increased output from OPEC+ members, the prospect of a new trade agreement and falling US crude inventories is offering some near-term support with stockpiles dropping by 2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, partially offsetting Tuesday\u2019s bearish API report showing a 4.49 million barrel build.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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01 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Makes Return<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk on – Gold prices continued their decline midweek as investors scaled back safe-haven exposure amid renewed signs of US-China trade engagement. The pullback marks gold\u2019s third straight session of losses, driven by optimism that fresh talks could ease tariff tensions. Traders will be watching for confirmation of any formal dialogue between Washington and Beijing before the weekend. Furthermore, sentiment has been lifted by Trump’s executive orders easing auto tariff pressure and remarks pointing to possible deals with India, South Korea, and Japan. Looking ahead, with geopolitical risk premia unwinding and trade dialogue showing signs of progress, the precious metal may face further downside pressure near term. However, any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the market mood.<\/p>

Tech support – Stronger-than-expected Q1 results from Microsoft and Meta lifted sentiment across the tech sector, offsetting concerns about a potential advertising slowdown linked to tariff uncertainty. Microsoft delivered robust earnings, with EPS of $3.46 on $70B in revenue, surpassing forecasts. Notably, Azure revenue rose on the back of AI demand, slightly above expectations. Commercial cloud revenue saw continued enterprise demand despite macro headwinds. Meta also outperformed, posting EPS of $6.43 and $42.3B in revenue, well above estimates. Guidance for Q2 revenue came in strong at $42.5B\u2013$45.5B, despite management acknowledging ongoing tariff-driven ad market concerns. The dual beats and solid outlooks from two Magnificent 7 heavyweights provided a tailwind for the Nasdaq index.<\/p>

New deal – The newly signed US-Ukraine agreement granting Washington a share of profits from Ukraine’s future mineral and energy sales reflects a shift toward longer-term strategic and economic cooperation. While not a formal security guarantee, the deal gives the US tangible stakes in Ukraine\u2019s post-war recovery and resource access, helping to justify continued US support amid political debates over aid. The deal may bolster sentiment in energy and mining equities tied to US interests, particularly those with exposure to lithium, rare earths, or natural gas. However, uncertainty around control of resource-rich territories and absence of binding security commitments could temper investor enthusiasm in the near term.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Central Banks Go Dovish Over Clouded Economic Outlook<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Grim outlook – Markets remain nervous as the U.S. central bank struck a cautious note about the growth outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is caught between a rock and a hard place as tariffs are likely to stoke inflation. Speaking publicly for the first time since President Trump paused parts of his sweeping tariff plan, the Fed boss signalled a wait-and-see approach to interest rates, saying the Fed needs more clarity on the economy\u2019s trajectory. However, he warned that the ongoing trade turmoil could derail the central bank\u2019s inflation and employment goals. The uncertainty has bruised dollar-denominated assets across the board with the greenback slumping to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. U.S. stocks and bonds also have seen sharp outflows in recent weeks.<\/p>

Cloudy sky – The euro held steady as the ECB slashed interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its key deposit rate down to 2.25% as trade tensions rattle the eurozone\u2019s economic outlook. The move, widely expected by markets, follows growing uncertainty tied to U.S.-led tariff hikes that have roiled global commerce. In a stark policy statement, the central bank flagged “rising trade tensions” as a key driver of deteriorating growth prospects, with President Christine Lagarde warning of “exceptional uncertainty” ahead. Europe now faces a sharp uptick in U.S. tariffs\u2014climbing from 3% to roughly 13%\u2014creating what Lagarde called a \u201cnegative demand shock.\u201d While many tariffs have been paused, the lingering threat of escalation has cast a shadow over inflation expectations and economic momentum.<\/p>

Mounting pressure – While the week wraps early for commodities ahead of Good Friday, bullish drivers have outweighed bearish signals. Crude prices are set to notch a weekly gain, buoyed by fresh U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms trading Iranian oil. The move adds to mounting pressure on Tehran and raises the prospect of tighter global supply, especially as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions through economic means. The International Energy Agency also added upward momentum by trimming its forecast for global supply growth. In its latest monthly report, the agency cut its forecast for this year by 260,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of just 1.2 million bpd. The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated output from the U.S. and Venezuela, adding to market concerns over tighter supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Trade Policy Keeps Investors on Edge<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tariff Reloaded – Markets staged a dramatic rebound at Thursday\u2019s open after President Donald Trump made a surprise reversal on tariff policy, temporarily slashing new import duties to 10% for most U.S. trade partners over a 90-day period. The sharp pivot marked a stark contrast to his earlier hardline stance and triggered a powerful rally across Wall Street. The S&P 500 soared in its third-biggest one-day gain since World War II, the Dow posted its strongest advance since the COVID crash of March 2020, and the Nasdaq exploded in its second-best session ever. Despite the relief rally, trade tensions remain high. The reciprocal tariffs Trump had long threatened officially came into effect, targeting nearly 90 countries. China was notably excluded from the temporary reprieve, with tariffs on Chinese goods escalating sharply after Beijing announced fresh duties on U.S. imports. The European Union also hit back, approving its first wave of countermeasures in response to the earlier U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs, signalling that the global trade skirmish is far from over.<\/p>

Empire Strikes Back – The escalating showdown has rattled all asset classes, stoking fears of a growth slowdown, rising inflation, and squeezed corporate earnings. Amid the mounting uncertainty, gold has seen a sharp rally, as investors seek safety in traditional havens. China has fired back once again at President Donald Trump\u2019s escalating tariff offensive, announcing a steep increase in duties on U.S. imports. Starting April 10, tariffs on American goods entering China will soar to 84%, up from the previous 34%, according to the latest statement from the Office of the Tariff Commission. The move comes in direct response to Washington\u2019s own overnight hike, which pushed tariffs on Chinese goods past the 100% mark. This tit-for-tat trade war is rapidly deepening, threatening to paralyse commerce between the world\u2019s two largest economies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

OPEC Strains – Oil prices remain fragile even though OPEC’s production slipped in March, just ahead of a planned output increase, as key members faced disruptions and mounting geopolitical pressure. Nigeria scaled back deliveries to domestic refineries, notably the Dangote facility, leading to a decline that offset stronger export volumes. Meanwhile, renewed efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to choke off oil flows from Iran and Venezuela contributed to further production drops from those nations. In total, output from Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each fell by around 50,000 barrels per day. Despite this, Nigeria remains slightly above its OPEC+ production target, with Gabon identified as the bloc\u2019s least compliant member. The latest figures highlight the fragile balance within OPEC+ as it begins to cautiously unwind some of its recent cuts. The full impact of the planned production hike may ultimately hinge on the success of Washington\u2019s push to curtail supplies from Tehran and Caracas.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets in Turmoil Amid Escalating Trade War<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Asian and European markets suffered a major blow as the fallout from President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariff announcements triggered a global sell-off. In Asia, Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index experienced a historic crash, while Taiwan\u2019s TAIEX tumbled to an all-time low in a dramatic market rout. The chaos spilled into Europe, where the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 opened sharply lower and Germany\u2019s DAX endured a full-blown bloodbath at the open. Although European markets have since clawed back some losses, volatility remains high as investors brace for more turbulence amid the escalating trade showdown.<\/span><\/p>

US futures are pointing to a rough start on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 expected to open down, reflecting deepening investor unease. Meanwhile, Brent Crude prices have slumped to their lowest level since April 2021, underscoring growing concerns over global demand. Even cryptocurrencies, often touted as alternatives to traditional finance, have been swept up in the turmoil. In a sell-off as widespread and intense as this, few risk assets are managing to escape the fallout unscathed.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitical and Trade Escalations Fuel Market Jitters<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Military Standoff – The U.S. is stepping up its military presence in the Middle East, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sending in extra warplanes for an ongoing bombing campaign in Yemen. The move adds more fuel to the fire in Washington\u2019s standoff with Iran, as Trump continues to push for nuclear negotiations\u2014using both tariffs and military threats as leverage. Over the weekend, Trump warned Tehran that more strikes (and even more tariffs) could be on the way if talks don\u2019t move forward. Iran, however, isn\u2019t budging. In a firm response via Oman, Tehran made it clear that it won\u2019t negotiate under pressure. With both sides digging in, tensions remain sky-high. Unless some behind-the-scenes diplomacy works its magic, we could be looking at more economic and military maneuvers, which would keep markets\u2014and the energy sector\u2014on edge.<\/p>

Trade Turmoil – Wednesday\u2019s much-anticipated tariff announcement couldn\u2019t come at a trickier time for the markets. Stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride for weeks, thanks to ever-changing trade policy chatter, and investors are still feeling pretty jittery. Unfortunately, it doesn\u2019t look like this latest move will do much to calm nerves. In fact, things might get even messier\u2014China, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly teaming up to hit back at Trump\u2019s tariff push. A coordinated counterstrike from these economic heavyweights could mean an extended trade skirmish, potentially tangling up supply chains and putting a damper on global growth. As traders sift through the details of this two-step tariff plan, all eyes will be on possible exemptions and any hints of a diplomatic breakthrough. And let\u2019s not forget the Fed\u2014already juggling economic curveballs, officials may have yet another headache if rising import costs start stoking inflation concerns.<\/span><\/p>

Oil Balancing – OPEC turned down the oil tap a little in March, trimming production by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it tried to keep supply in check before ramping things up again in May. According to Bloomberg\u2019s latest survey, the group\u2019s total output now stands at 27.43 million bpd, with members being reminded to stick to their quotas. This cut is all part of OPEC\u2019s ongoing effort to keep oil markets steady and prices supported, despite unpredictable demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still set to move forward with its planned production hikes, adding 138,000 bpd in May after a similar bump in April. As usual, traders will be keeping a close eye on OPEC\u2019s next moves, since oil price stability remains a delicate balancing act\u2014especially with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting demand trends in the mix.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Move on After Dovish Fed Decision<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Stay safe – The gold market remains in the upward direction, hovering near recent highs as the Federal Reserve maintains a neutral monetary policy stance\u2014despite raising its inflation outlook and trimming its growth forecast. As widely expected, the Fed held interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. However, policymakers provided little forward guidance, leaving markets guessing about the timing of future rate moves. The updated dot plot projections remained unchanged from December, showing rates ending the year at 3.9%, with further declines to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. While the central bank appears in no rush to cut rates, it is adopting a more measured approach toward its balance sheet\u2014adding another layer of complexity to the market\u2019s outlook.<\/span><\/p>

Stake high – Geopolitical stakes remain high in Ukraine with renewed airstrikes escalating tensions and fueling market uncertainty. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian sites, including hospitals, while suggesting that Putin has effectively dismissed a comprehensive ceasefire. The renewed hostilities come after Putin\u2019s recent conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, in which the Russian leader reportedly conditioned any ceasefire on the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. With no immediate resolution in sight, geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk factor for global markets, potentially triggering further volatility in energy prices, equities, and safe-haven assets.<\/p>

Caution ahead – The US dollar saw little bid after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and reaffirmed its projection for two rate cuts in 2024. While the central bank revised its economic outlook, some analysts interpreted the announcement as dovish, reinforcing expectations for eventual easing. Risk assets bounced back following the Fed\u2019s commitment to rate cuts, with equities gaining traction as investor sentiment improved. However, the greenback faced renewed pressure, reflecting shifting rate expectations. The updated forecasts indicate that policymakers remain cautious, aiming to balance inflation risks with economic stability, leaving markets closely watching the timing of the first rate cut.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Choose Flight to Safety<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Hold still – The British pound remains supported ahead of the Bank of England\u2019s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 20 March, where policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%. The central bank had previously cut rates by 25 basis points in February, but rising geopolitical risks and tightening global financial conditions have reinforced expectations of a pause. The impact of US trade policies, particularly Trump\u2019s tariff measures, has already pushed UK bond yields higher, contributing to a stronger pound. While domestic economic indicators remain mixed, the BoE appears reluctant to continue easing in an environment where external shocks could sustain inflationary pressures. Markets will be watching for any forward guidance that could shape expectations for the BoE\u2019s next policy move, which is likely to influence sterling\u2019s trajectory in the near term.<\/span><\/p>

Hard hit – Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off this week as investors repriced risk in response to growing concerns over US economic stability. Even President Trump\u2019s economic team has acknowledged potential turbulence ahead, a shift that has fuelled risk aversion across asset classes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4%, while the S&P 500 extended its recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite suffered the most significant decline, plunging 4.5%. The tech sector led the decline, with the “Magnificent Seven” stocks driving the sell-off. The pullback reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, compounded by Trump\u2019s aggressive trade policies. The US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations remain unresolved, keeping markets on edge as investors assess potential tariff impacts on corporate earnings and economic growth.<\/p>

New high – Gold prices have staged a strong recovery, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid ongoing market volatility and geopolitical risks. Despite a slight cooling in inflation pressures, the latest US CPI data failed to alleviate broader recession fears. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of 0.3% and down from 0.5% in January. Although gold experienced a sharp decline at the end of February\u2014dropping over $130 to touch $2,833\u2014technical support at key moving averages provided a floor for prices, leading to a swift rebound above $2,900. This resilience suggests that bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants continuing to hedge against economic uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Retreat as Geopolitics Takes Over Monetary Policy<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Rally on hold – Markets are on edge as investors weigh the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on major US trading partners. The new measures\u201425% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a sharp increase in China duties to 20%\u2014went into effect on Tuesday. Canada wasted no time hitting back with its own round of immediate tariffs on US imports, while China responded with a 15% levy on American farm products like chicken and pork, set to take effect on March 10. However, Beijing’s relatively measured response left some analysts speculating that there\u2019s still room for negotiation with Washington. With trade tensions heating up, investors are bracing for potential market turbulence in the days ahead. The S&P 500 has tanked to its November lows just above the 5700 mark. Any major escalation in the trade spat could spark a deeper correction in the coming weeks.<\/span><\/p>

Geopolitical chessboard – Gold prices are taking a breather as traders lock in some profits after a strong recovery earlier this week. The price action is seemingly trying to hold onto its bullish momentum. Fundamental-wise, safe-haven demand continues to underpin gold, fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index this week. Adding to the global economic mix, China\u2019s National People’s Congress kicked off its annual session by reaffirming its 5% growth target for 2025, most likely as a defiant signal to Mr Trump\u2019s aggressive foreign policy. On the eastern front, Trump claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had expressed gratitude for U.S. support and signalled a willingness to sign a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral rights. Mixed statements such as this add yet another layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical chess match.<\/span><\/p>

Swift comeback – The euro flexed its muscles against most major currencies after the European Central Bank\u2019s latest interest rate move. As expected, the central bank trimmed rates by 25 basis points. But what really caught the market\u2019s attention was Christine Lagarde\u2019s tone during the press conference. Rather than signaling a dovish pivot, the ECB president struck a more hawkish note, stressing that future rate cuts would depend on incoming data. That cautious stance gave the euro a solid lift, as traders recalibrated their expectations for her next moves. Adding fuel to the rally, the euro is also buoyed by optimism over Europe’s growth following Germany’s proposal for a massive \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund. The plan is seen as a potential counterweight to global trade tensions, offering a boost to the region\u2019s economic outlook. The bullish news compound the bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar which stumbled across the board, dragged down by mounting concerns over the impact of tariffs on inflation and broader economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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28 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Jitters as Trump Goes Against Rest of the World<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cautious approach – Markets are gaining confidence as investors digest Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings, which reassured them about AI growth despite initial concerns over DeepSeek and weakening demand. While the company\u2019s profit outlook initially sparked some hesitation on Wall Street, Nvidia\u2019s stock rebounded after an early dip. At the same time, traders are closely watching President Trump\u2019s latest tariff threats, which have added to existing economic jitters. On Wednesday, he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union and reinstate paused duties on Canada and Mexico. However, the lack of clear details left markets guessing about the timeline and potential impact. The S&P 500 is trying to squeeze out modest gains the latest session, in an attempt to end its five-day streak of losses.<\/span><\/p>

Bouncing back – The euro-dollar exchange rate has pulled back to its mid-February lows around 1.0400 as the US Dollar remains strong amid a risk-off mood. Still, caution might be warranted as the remarkable strength of the US dollar in recent months has been challenged by a string of underwhelming economic reports\u2014ranging from a dip in consumer confidence to sluggish retail sales and weak consumer sentiment\u2014has shaken markets and fuelled concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors are now weighing whether these signals point to a temporary slowdown or a more persistent challenge ahead. Nevertheless, the greenback could benefit from erratic tariff decisions by Donald Trump against European and Japanese imports, making it the least vulnerable of the majors out there.<\/span><\/p>

Wild ride – Bitcoin\u2019s wild ride in its 6-figure valuation took a sharp turn downward as the digital gold plunged to its lowest level since November, dragging the broader crypto market down with it and erasing nearly half a trillion dollars in value. After soaring past $108,000 last month\u2014coinciding with Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration and his self-proclaimed status as the \u201cBitcoin President\u201d\u2014BTC is struggling to stay above $85,000. The selloff has been partly linked to growing investor frustration over Trump\u2019s unfulfilled promises nearly a month into his term, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. On a more technical level, expiring bitcoin options sitting in crypto exchanges, worth an estimated $3.9 billion, could expire out of the money, as most positions were set at higher price levels, further exacerbating market volatility. The crypto market also took another hit after a massive hack on the Bybit platform, described as the \u201cbiggest digital heist ever.\u201d Hackers managed to steal around $1.5 billion by gaining control of an Ethereum wallet on the Dubai-based exchange. The shock of the breach, combined with Bitcoin\u2019s price collapse, has sent ripples through the industry, intensifying concerns over security vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Unfettered Risk Appetite Keeps Brewing<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Safe bet – Sustained demand for gold keeps the chart trajectory upward as investors weigh monetary policy against geopolitical winds. Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period. This could discourage traders from making new bets, creating a headwind for the non-yielding metal. However, a renewed decline in US Treasury bond yields is keeping dollar bulls on the back foot, providing further support for gold prices. More importantly, the broader fundamentals still favour an upward trend for bullion, keeping the metal\u2019s two-month rally intact. Gold’s bullish momentum is fuelled by concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could spark a global trade war, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.<\/span><\/p>

Tables turned – The S&P 500 is inching up in a timid manner as market participants fret that a peace talk between the US and Russia without Ukraine could signal a dramatic shift in US foreign policy. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Donald Trump reached new heights after the latter took to social media to mock Zelensky, calling him a \u201cdictator without elections.\u201d Zelensky fired back, accusing Trump of falling for Russian disinformation regarding the war in Ukraine. The heated exchange followed a controversial meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war\u2014without Ukraine at the table. After the meeting, Trump suggested Ukraine had initiated the conflict, prompting a swift and sharp rebuttal from Zelensky. The rhetoric highlights the risk of the US pulling the plug on Kyiv\u2019s war effort, alienating its European allies in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Still hodling – Bitcoin continues to defy concerns from the Federal Reserve\u2019s latest meeting minutes, which signalled officials remain hesitant to cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed pointed to trade policies under the Trump administration as a potential obstacle to controlling inflation. Despite this cautious stance, Bitcoin continued its rally, holding steady as investors shrugged off rate uncertainty and focused on the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price tends to move in tandem with interest rate expectations because lower rates mean more liquidity in the market, making speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Added uncertainty from the Ukraine geopolitical twist might have convinced more investors to pour into the digital gold.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ukraine Optimism Offsets Trade Worries<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Inflation still hot – The much-anticipated U.S. inflation figure came out hotter than expected, throwing a wrench into hopes for near-term rate cuts. January\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.9%. The \u201ccore\u201d CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in even stronger at 3.3% versus the anticipated 3.1%\u2014marking the hottest inflation reading in months. These numbers bolster the case for monetary policy hawks who argue the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, prioritising the fight against inflation. However, President Trump took to social media, pushing back and insisting the U.S. needs lower interest rates.\u00a0<\/span>The U.S. dollar index initially spiked on the inflation report but later gave up gains to trade lower. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.65% following the data, keeping limited support to the greenback.<\/span><\/p>

Stabilisation factor – The oil price slump gained momentum as President Donald Trump took his first major step toward brokering an end to Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, just weeks after his inauguration. Trump took to social media to announce that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations immediately, adding that he would be calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to inform him of the conversation. A potential ceasefire could further weigh on oil prices if Trump pushes to roll back sanctions on Russia\u2019s energy sector. On a more fundamental level, the market\u2019s depressed sentiment has been fuelled by rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling that the Fed isn\u2019t rushing to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity and weaken oil demand.<\/span><\/p>

Steady climb – Wall Street reacted to the latest American CPI data with a knee-jerk selloff, but S&P 500 has found support and is still consolidating near its recent highs. A key factor? Reports that President Trump had a “productive” phone call with Russian President Putin about ending the Russia-Ukraine war, offering investors a glimmer of optimism, which would offset concerns with rising global trade tension, notably with the new administration\u2019s reciprocal tariffs. On the corporate side, the fourth-quarter earnings season rolls on. So far, more than 69% of S&P 500 companies have already released their results, and the majority are delivering pleasant surprises\u2014over 75% have topped Wall Street\u2019s forecasts, according to FactSet.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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7 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trade Spat Casts Shadow Over Sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Record high – Gold prices surged to yet another all-time high in this week\u2019s trading, driven by strong safe-haven demand as investors flock to the yellow metal amid rising uncertainty. Market nerves remain on edge as President Trump\u2019s unpredictable and potentially disruptive policy moves keep traders guessing. Meanwhile, China-U.S. trade tensions are heating up, with both nations escalating tariffs and taking further hostile business actions against each other this week. The EU may not be spared either after Trump doubled down on his plan to hike tariffs on the block, adding another layer of uncertainty to global trade dynamics. Experts fret that this \u201celevated trade policy uncertainty\u201d could drag on economic growth in the coming months, primarily by dampening business investment and weakening market confidence. Goldman Sachs has warned that the eurozone economy could suffer a \u201csizable hit to activity\u201d from the rise in trade tensions. With geopolitical and economic uncertainty mounting, gold continues its record-breaking rally, proving once again that when uncertainty reigns, gold shines.<\/p>

Mixed feelings – U.S. stocks have recouped their recent losses as they strive to hold onto this year\u2019s limited gains. While earnings from Alphabet and AMD fell short of expectations, Big Tech found support thanks to a strong rally in Nvidia. Alphabet\u2019s stock took a hit, sliding nearly 7%, after its fourth-quarter cloud revenue came in below estimates. The shortfall raised concerns that the company’s aggressive AI investments may take longer than expected to pay off. However, Nvidia emerged as a winner, climbing more than 5% as investors bet that the chipmaker could benefit from the ongoing AI spending spree. Overall, a retreat of the 10-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since December 2024 further added support to the market\u2019s rebound.<\/span><\/p>

Sluggish demand – Crude oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels of the year as fears of weakening demand rattled investors. The drop comes after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports, while U.S. stockpiles climbed for the second straight week. WTI crude hit its lowest point since December 31, 2024, as tensions between the top two consumers escalated. With China\u2014the world\u2019s largest oil importer\u2014facing economic headwinds, concerns are mounting over a potential slowdown in global energy demand. On Tuesday, China\u2019s State Council Tariff Commission announced a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with a 10% duty on American crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles, set to take effect next week. Meanwhile, fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing fears of weakening demand and adding further pressure to oil markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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31 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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AI Race and Safe Haven in Tandem<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tech correction – US tech stocks stabilised after plunging on Monday due to the sudden rise of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) app DeepSeek. The open source solution sent chipmaker Nvidia into a nosedive, triggering a broader selloff across the market. The turbulence followed DeepSeek\u2019s claim that its AI model was developed at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, prompting investors to rapidly reassess their bets on AI and the ROI on the costly infrastructure, and casting uncertainty over America\u2019s AI dominance. President Donald Trump called the moment \u201ca wake-up call\u201d for the US tech industry while downplaying concerns over the breakthrough, affirming that the US will remain a leading force in AI. For traders following the price action, unless the Nasdaq sinks below its 2-month lows around 20600 the index is merely consolidating near its historic high. The market\u2019s eventual resilience would prove the optimism surrounding AI investments that has fuelled much of the US stock market\u2019s surge over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>

ECB easing – The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its fifth rate cut on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points as it walks a tightrope between rising inflation and sluggish growth. After months of cooling, inflation in the eurozone is heating up again, hitting 2.4% in December – its third straight increase – just as the effects of cheaper energy start to fade. At the same time, the region\u2019s economy is stuck in neutral. Fresh data showed zero growth in the final quarter of 2024, falling short of economists\u2019 modest 0.1% forecast and following a 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. Commenting on the latest move, ECB President Christine Lagarde didn\u2019t sugarcoat the situation, admitting that the euro area economy is \u201cset to remain weak in the near term.\u201d In other words, while inflation is picking up, growth is taking a nap – leaving the ECB with the tricky job of keeping both in check. FX-wise, the single currency is far from being out of the woods as the US Fed stayed put with its interest rates unchanged, broadening the differential between the two economic entities.<\/span><\/p>

Shining again – Gold is back on its feet after dragging its feet for the past three months. The price has surged to a new all-time fuelled by strong safe-haven demand and technical buying. Investor jitters over the new US administration\u2019s trade and foreign policies – especially the potential for fresh tariffs – are keeping the marketplace on edge. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting on Wednesday with a clear signal: interest rates are staying unchanged for the foreseeable future. Policymakers acknowledged that \u201cinflation remains somewhat elevated,\u201d but Chair Jerome Powell downplayed any shift in stance, brushing off the change in wording as mere \u201clanguage clean-up.\u201d Powell steered clear of commenting on how President Trump\u2019s policies might influence the Fed\u2019s decisions. Markets, in turn, took the Fed\u2019s statement and Powell\u2019s press conference in stride, showing little reaction.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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24 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trump 2.0 May Complicate Fed Policy Course<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Technical recovery – The euro\u2019s current rebound is likely to be due to profit-taking after it hit a 26-month low earlier this year. General sentiment remains downbeat as the ECB keeps pushing in the loosening direction while the Fed is taking their feet off the pedal. President Christine Lagarde and other senior officials expressed support for additional rate cuts, potentially weakening the shared currency in the short term. Markets have already priced in another 25bp cut next Thursday, the fifth of the easing cycle, with expectations that interest rates will drop to 2% by year-end. Adding insult to injury would be the looming U.S. tariffs championed by Trump 2.0 elevating the risk of higher inflation in a fragile economy. Despite Lagarde\u2019s reassurance that the central bank is \u201cnot overly concerned\u201d about external factors, the market always finds a way to play in a cynical and pragmatic way and may keep the lid on the exchange rate.<\/p>

Verbal escalation – Gold is surfing on renewed geopolitical tensions following Mr Trump\u2019s inauguration. Stakes in the eastern front have been raised as the new U.S. president looks to boast his \u2018art of the deal\u2019 by settling the war in Ukraine in a swift manner. He delivered on his own social media platform Truth Social this week an ultimatum to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin saying that Russia should strike a deal or face even tougher economic consequences. Warnings of extending sanctions on all Russian exports to the United States and secondary penalties for nations conducting business with Moscow may push the latter to a corner if a deal fails to materialise, exacerbating the divide between the East and the West. The precious metal\u2019s solid run lately in spite of the dollar\u2019s strength signals growing demand for its safe haven status.<\/span><\/p>

Clash of the titans – The U.S. dollar has given back its recent gains as traders await a new catalyst from the central bank\u2019s interest rate decision next week. To spice things up, Powell & Co\u2019s cautious stance puts the Federal Reserve on a potential collision course with the new assertive president. Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs in a significant manner. As far as the market is concerned, the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25-4.5% next week, in the wake of three consecutive cuts since September. However, policymakers have adopted a more conservative approach for the year especially as Mr Trump\u2019s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes, and tighten immigration policies could complicate efforts to lower inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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UK Worries Weigh on Cable<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mini crisis – The pound has plunged to its lowest level in over a year, while UK borrowing costs have reached a 16-year high. The latest bond market sell-off reflects investors\u2019 growing concerns over UK assets and most importantly the contrasting signal between higher gilt yields and a falling currency shows investors\u2019 doubt over the country\u2019s economic outlook and the health of its public finances. The market turmoil has added pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faces increasing scrutiny, made an uncommon move by issuing a public statement for the second consecutive night, emphasising her \u201ciron grip\u201d on public finances. But despite government efforts to stabilise the markets, borrowing costs continue to climb. Addressing an urgent question in the House of Commons, Treasury Minister Darren Jones assured there was “no need for an emergency intervention” in financial markets. However, market participants still have the memory of the mini-budget crisis under the former prime minister Liz Truss in September 2022.<\/p>

Seasonal demand – Brent crude is staging a steady recovery to its 3-month high as the market demand has shifted its focus to colder weather than the last two winters, in both Europe and the United States, which could boost consumption of heating oil. A stronger U.S. dollar and an unexpected rise in U.S. stockpiles have not deterred buyers from shying away, with technical buying-the-dips compounding the seasonal factor. There are high hopes that the recent weak CPI print in China would spur more stimulus to tackle the country\u2019s chronic economic headache. In the meantime, a surge in travel across China ahead of the Lunar New Year has improved demand expectations, adding to rationales that would help the price stabilise in the near term.<\/p>

Bullish consolidation – The December U.S. jobs report was a blowout for the outgoing administration with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The print was a confirmation that would lessen the worry about the impact of high interest rates on the job market. While the market participants await further rejuvenation of the economy under Trump 2.0, the earnings season is kicking off next week with Q4 and full-year results from Wall Street\u2019s big banks. Investors anticipate impressive numbers as trading volumes have significantly exceeded typical fourth-quarter levels across all asset classes, fuelled by a growing participation from retail traders amid a bull run in both stock and cryptocurrency markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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3 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Investors Remain Confident about U.S. Growth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Parity in sight – The market is waiting for fresh catalysts in the first week of 2025 and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls might just give participants enough a reason to stay alert. A strong reading could be the straw that broke the euro\u2019s back as the single currency is inching towards the parity threshold, last seen in November 2022. The market consensus is that Trump\u2019s policies will sustain support for the greenback, as tax reliefs will put upward pressure on inflation and make further interest rate cuts less easy to justify, while tariffs against the eurozone would be seen as rubbing salt in the wound, undermining its growth outlook.\u00a0<\/p>

Steady recovery – Gold is striving for a comeback after it stabilised around its recent low of $2,600. The precious metal gains strength thanks to its safe-haven appeal, as investors turn their attention to President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s upcoming administration, set to begin on January 20. Anticipated policies from Trump, including higher import tariffs and lower taxes, are expected to benefit gold. More specifically, elevated tariffs could spark a global trade war, while reduced taxes may increase inflationary pressures in the United States. Gold often thrives in times of economic uncertainty as a safer asset and performs well during periods of rising inflation, as investors use it to hedge against price increases. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields fall to approximately 4.5%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, enhancing their attractiveness.<\/p>

Hesitant start – Stocks began January with a volatile trading session as investors locked in profits from notable 2024 winners like Apple and Tesla. The much-anticipated \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally, which typically boosts stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, failed to materialize as the market preferred the certainty of gains other than the promise of higher watermarks, leaving the S&P 500 with four straight days of losses into the year\u2019s end\u2014its first such streak since 1966. Still there is high hope that the rally will stay put as pro-growth and inflationary policies in the U.S. may keep fuelling the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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20 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fed Pours Cold Water Before Christmas<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed pressure – The euro is hovering near its 4-week low as traders price in a potential acceleration in the interest rate differential across the Atlantic. The ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place after its U.S. counterpart adopted a hawkish stance in the last meeting. In the meantime, inflation in the eurozone has become steady though not subdued with the November reading coming in below expectations at 2.2%. The market expects the central bank to stay the course on reducing borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate growth. While the Fed might hold back from another increase in January 2025, the ECB is expected to reduce interest rates at every meeting until June 2025, leaving the single currency struggle against other majors.<\/span><\/p>

Bullion dilemma – On the one hand, the prospect of lower global interest rates would make the non-yielding metal more appealing by lowering the cost of opportunity. On the other, a relatively strong U.S. economy and an unusually hawkish Fed might keep Treasury yields high, leaving gold in the shadows. How far the retracement may go would reflect bids on the mighty dollar as its recovery across the board so far has put the precious metal under pressure. The price action is consolidating as liquidity starts to dry out going into Christmas, but it would be too soon to call for a bearish reversal.<\/span><\/p>

Close call – Stock markets saw sharp pullbacks after the Federal Reserve commented on a \u2018closer call\u2019 on its loosening policy. As widely anticipated, the U.S. central bank lowered its key interest rate this Wednesday by 25 basis points, the third consecutive cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022. However, policymakers struck a cautionary note on their next move. Inflation has been holding steadily above target against the backdrop of uncertain economic growth on a global macro level, prompting the Fed to slow down on its monetary easing path, with indications that there probably would be only two small cuts in 2025. The decision has given risk assets such as tech stocks which have been front-running the yield curve a reason to take a breather, sending the S&P and Nasdaq indices off their recent peaks.<\/span><\/p>

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13 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Anticipating Another U.S. Rate Cut<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar recovery – The U.S. dollar is bouncing back across the board as traders reposition ahead of the last Federal Reverse rate decision of the year. The market overwhelmingly anticipates an additional 25-basis-point rate cut in the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. However the persistence of sticky inflation might put the brakes on the pace of future rate cuts, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England might trim their respective rates faster in the face of stalling economies. The prospect of this differential could prove particularly beneficial for the greenback.\u00a0<\/p>

Gold consolidation – Bullion has pulled back from its 3-week high as the market digests a crucial regime change in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad dynasty last weekend left a void in an increasingly turbulent region and exposed Iran, its former ally, prompting traders to ponder major stakeholders\u2019, namely the U.S. and Russia and their proxies\u2019 next move on the geopolitical chessboard. As a result, heightened uncertainty may keep safe haven seekers busy as the new year could reserve additional surprises. In the meantime, news of physical buying by the People\u2019s Bank of China may offer further support.<\/span><\/p>

S&P high watermark – The U.S. index is still holding on to its all-time high as investors bet on a downward trajectory of the interest rates. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October’s 2.6% annual increase, but in line with economists’ forecasts. Participants in the rally have so far shrugged off economists\u2019 view of Trump’s proposed policies\u2014such as imposing high tariffs on imports, cutting corporate taxes, and restricting immigration\u2014as potentially inflationary. The optimism may live on as long as evidence shows a lack of an upside surprise in inflation data.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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06 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Job Report Sends U.S. Dollar into Retreat<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar pullback – The latest U.S. job data showed a rise of the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% in November. The greenback has been pulling back as traders braced for the last nonfarm payrolls of the year. Before the report, the market had priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut on December 18, but that probability has now climbed to 87%. The prevailing sentiment is that Fed officials are already inclined toward a rate cut, and it would take a much stronger report to change their stance. The market now expects 90 basis points of easing next year, up from the previous expectation of 82 basis points, offering fragile support to the dollar in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Oil stabilisation – WTI crude steadied around its 3-month low after the OPEC+ group which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia postponed its planned production increase amid sluggish global demand, notably due to China\u2019s economic struggle and competition from non-member producers like Brazil and Argentina. The recent lows also corresponds to the trough seen in December 2021, indicating the market\u2019s concern about the lingering supply and demand imbalance. Market participants may look to thread the needle with their year\u2019s end positioning as the price walks on thin ice.<\/span><\/p>

Trump effect – Bitcoin’s value soared past the $100,000 mark after Trump announced plans to nominate former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the regulatory body. Atkins is widely regarded as more cryptocurrency friendly than the incumbent Gary Gensler. The president-elect had earlier vowed to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital” and his celebration on social media with messages like “Congratulations Bitcoiners” and “You’re welcome!” would draw more public attention to the digital asset. Traders have started to bag some profits but sentiment supported by the trend remains overwhelmingly positive.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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29 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Final Push as Markets Look to Regain Volatility<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Calm before volatility –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Trading volumes have thinned around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday this week but market lethargy may give place to renewed volatility in a busy data-driven week. Investors are likely to take advantage of the last nonfarm payrolls on Friday and reallocate their books before going into the Christmas holiday season. Until then weak tech earnings and the Nvidia sell-off could continue to be the theme that has been driving major U.S. indices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Oil uncertainty –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Oil prices stabilise as traders look for signals from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on the 1st of December. The market widely expects production cuts from January. However, artificial restraints on supply may not suffice to lift depressed prices in the current environment. Global fundamentals remain uncertain at best as bidders may be reluctant to hold large positions into the new year with American protectionism looming as Trump is scheduled to retake the reins.<\/span><\/p>

Lost shine –\u00a0<\/span>Gold remains under pressure weighed down by the recent recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. Meanwhile physical investments in China, the precious metal’s No.1 consumer country, have tanked amid growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical friction with the West. The price is hovering above the $2600 mark and trying to find support and now the question is whether bullion\u2019s safe haven status would bring in more inflows in the weeks leading to the year\u2019s end.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Market Confidence Fuels Tech and Digital Assets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Arms race – Russia missile strikes on Ukraine in response to the use of Western made missiles by its neighbour have triggered another round of escalation in the 1000-day conflict. What worries traders is whether this could open doors for more unprecedented events in the months to come. Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen have held their ground and found renewed interests as market participants look to hedge their risk appetite.<\/p>\n

Under pressure – US indices are holding onto their gains as investors anticipate a 25 basis point cut by the Fed at its December meeting. High watermarks in US equities reflect the market\u2019s confidence in its economy, offering better yields in a lower interest rate environment as well as safety backed by the American government. Individual stocks have found a boost from bright quarterly results from the likes of Nvidia, furthering cementing the confidence, so much that even the news of a possible breakup of Alphabet, parent of Google by the US Department of Justice have left the market unfazed.<\/p>\n

To the moon – Bitcoin continues to stay well-supported as it pushes its way to the landmark $100,000. Fundamentally, expectations of a more friendly business environment with an end to scrutiny from US regulators, growing popularity in bitcoin ETFs as well as escalations in geopolitical events bringing in more flows are major tailwinds for the digital asset. Technically, the question is who dares to say \u2018this is good enough\u2019 and put their money where their mouth is by taking the other side of the trade. Until then the momentum may stay strong.<\/p>\n

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15 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Assets Push Forward as Trump Secures both Houses<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dream team momentum -The market is on its toes as President-elect Donald Trump taps into personal ties to shape the next government. His comeback may have a large impact as a mix of tax cuts, immigration control and trade tariffs could go through with the blessing of a Republican-controlled Congress. The US dollar\u2019s strength and overall volatility can barely hide expectations of a dramatic shift in US policies.<\/p>

Euro\u2019s struggle. – Whispers of parity are back in the market, a reminiscence of the energy crisis back in 2022. This time around, investors fear that Mr Trump will be back to take care of his unfinished business with more tariffs. On the ECB\u2019s monetary policy, faster interest rate cuts than in the United States would put the single currency under further pressure.<\/p>

Crypto president – Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $90,000 is a telltale sign that traders are embracing the upcoming US administration for the best, and potentially the worst. The crypto industry is betting on a friendlier regime to trigger a broader adoption, leading up to another round of bull market. Meanwhile, outperformance by digital gold compared to altcoins may suggest traders\u2019 hedging of possible escalation in geopolitical disputes.<\/p>

Tech optimism – Stock market sentiment remains risk-on as a lower interest rate environment compounds the prospect of Republicans\u2019 laissez-faire agenda with tax cuts and looser regulations. Options players are piling into riskier assets notably the technology sector which they believe could reap a massive windfall from Trump\u2019s victory, supporting the current rally.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Day After: Global Market Reactions to Trump\u2019s Victory<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Donald Trump’s confirmation as the next US president has boosted stocks and assets that are seen as favourable to his administration.\u00a0 His agenda is set to bolster traditional industries such as construction, infrastructure, and energy. The policies announced by Donald Trump during his campaign were generally seen as inflationary,\u00a0due to tariffs\u00a0and onshoring, pro-growth, and as adding to the already burgeoning federal deficit, thanks to proposed tax cuts. How these policies affect the economic backdrop is likely to be one key driver of US stock market returns in the next four years.<\/p>

In the US, stocks soared last night to record highs with the S&P 500 jumping 2.5% to close at 5,929.04, while the Dow Jones surged 3.6%, reaching 43,729.93. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite advanced 3% to 18,983.47. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.435% from 4.411% late on Tuesday.<\/p>

Stocks in Asia recovered from early losses after US stocks jumped to record levels as investors tried to assess the impact of Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House on the global economy. The Hang Seng climbed 2% in Hong Kong, and the Shanghai Composite was 2.6% up by the end of the session.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the Chinese government reported that exports jumped nearly 13% in October compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years. However, the Nikkei slipped 0.3% on the day in Japan, reflecting worries over the potential for a revival of trade tensions under a Trump administration.<\/p>

The FTSE 100 and European stocks pushed higher in the Thursday early morning session as the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0(BoE) is\u00a0expected to cut interest rates again at noon. Money markets are strongly betting on a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut \u2014 that the benchmark rate will fall from its\u00a0current level of 5%\u00a0to 4.75%. It is the first announcement since the UK government unveiled their budget last week and comes as CPI\u00a0inflation\u00a0and\u00a0wage growth\u00a0continue to cool.<\/p>

Traders are now turning their attention to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England\u2019s decisions on interest rates later today. The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates again this evening by 25 basis points, amid a moderating inflation rate and a softening labour market.<\/p>

However, analysts have warned that it is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and concerns that he might seek significant influence over the central banks\u2019 policy decisions, that will be the main driver in the global financial markets.<\/p>

The pound dived against the dollar, following Trump\u2019s\u00a0claimed victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. The pound\u2019s decline marks a significant sell-off as traders brace for a shift in US economic policy under the prospect of a second Trump administration. Yesterday the US dollar surged to its largest single-day gain since March 2020, climbing 1.5% against a basket of major currencies.<\/p>

Gold prices were lower as investors moved away from the safe haven and into assets that could benefit under the new Trump administration, with spot gold currently trading lower at $2,665.00 per ounce. The drop in gold signals a broader market reaction to the US presidential election, which is dominating investor sentiment this week.<\/p>

The Fed\u2019s outlook to be announced later today, could also influence the direction of gold in the coming weeks, as rising rates tend to weigh on the precious metal.<\/p>

Oil markets were pressured by the results from the US elections and the latest weekly US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, with Brent crude futures trading at $71.87 per barrel. Oil prices have shown a dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump\u2019s victory.<\/p>

A new Trump administration would favour domestic fossil fuel producers as he aims to enhance America’s energy security. Approximately two thirds of the exchange-traded fund iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IOGP.AS) is held in US-listed assets. Trump is also likely to prioritise increased domestic oil and gas production.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trading Trump (vs) Harris - Election Anxiety Spikes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The FTSE 100 and European stocks are showing a mixed picture on Monday as traders anxiously await the outcome of the US presidential election, as well as a decision on\u00a0UK interest rates\u00a0from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0on Thursday, which is expected to make a quarter-point cut for the second time this cycle, taking UK interest rates to 4.75%.<\/p>

The U.S. election could bring unprecedented market swings across various asset classes and will shape the direction of the global financial markets and geopolitics for the next four years, with potential policy changes impacting stocks, commodities, forex, and other assets. Historically, election uncertainty has led to extreme volatility. During the 2020 election, financial markets experienced a $5 trillion fluctuation in market value in the weeks preceding and following the election: the VIX (Volatility Index) jumped by over 50%, and global markets experienced turbulence throughout the election cycle.<\/p>

Traders around the globe, are closely watching as Kamala Harris, running for the Democratic Party, races against leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. The outcome of the election will define the policies of the next administration which would have a tremendous impact on economic trends, international trade, and market stability.<\/p>

The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges.<\/p>

This volatility may present both risks and opportunities in the trading environment, therefore it would be prudent for traders to keep their trading accounts sufficiently funded in advance. This will allow them to manage margin requirements effectively, capitalise on potential opportunities, and mitigate any market risks.<\/p>

Potential Implications and Market Reactions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The race remains neck-and-neck as we approach tomorrow\u2019s vote, and investors have been positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump.<\/p>

In the US, Trump would likely shake up the status quo far more significantly than Harris, who has served as President Joe Biden\u2019s vice president for the past four years.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s focus on fiscal expansion and tariffs which would is expected to trigger higher inflation and would have a strong influence in Treasury and FX markets, as well as risk-on in equity markets favouring US cyclicals. Tax cuts would also be expected as part of Trump\u2019s economic policy.<\/p>

In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump\u2019s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies. Markets are pricing in some of the risks associated with Trump returning to the White House, suggesting that a Harris victory would trigger a bullish move for emerging markets, while factoring in the likely impact of higher taxes on earnings and reinforcement of wider macro forces.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s tariff plans carry particular risks for China for levies of 60% or more, which will increase pressure on the Chinese economy while the government is already struggling to revive the faltering economy.<\/p>

Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, may also come under pressure with tariff increases. The Yuan\u2019s one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years last month.<\/p>

Developing nations such as South Korea and Taiwan, with high exposure to the US and strong reliance on Chinese inputs could also face pressures from such an escalating trade war, as they would be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s statements on the US commitment to alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and to Ukraine\u2019s efforts to defeat Russia, have weighed on local bonds of certain eastern European countries and lifted Ukraine\u2019s dollar debt on speculation that Trump\u2019s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.<\/p>

What if the Result\u00a0is Contested?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The counting of the votes may only be the start of a new process that financial markets will struggle to interpret.<\/p>

Markets are expected to be volatile not only on the night of the election, but potentially in the days or weeks to follow. Declarations and rumours around key swing states like Pennsylvania will be particularly important and algo-driven markets could be particularly sensitive to such risk.\u00a0<\/p>

The greatest risk for global markets to consider would be if the election result is bitterly contested afterwards by the \u2018losing\u2019 party. Because the polls remain so close, the election creates a great deal of uncertainty with traders trying to price for a binary outcome. Key policies, particularly around trade, tariffs and the outlook for the US debt, will be greatly affected by the outcome and so the results will drive price action.\u00a0<\/p>

The biggest uncertainty facing the market is if the result is contested. It took days to declare Biden officially the winner in the 2020 election, while Trump contested the result almost until the January inauguration. The highest risk is that neither side is willing to concede, leading to a high-stakes legal roller coaster, which could in theory last not days but weeks. This outcome has the largest potential for a negative risk catalyst in the global markets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Oil prices heading for their biggest weekly gains in over a year <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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04 October 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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After a night of intense air strikes by Israel on Beirut, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in today\u2019s session. Oil prices posted their biggest one-day rise in almost a year, surging by more than 5%.<\/p>

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to around $77.90 a barrel. Weekly prices have experienced their biggest weekly percentage point gain since early 2023. Traders are concerned that potential supply disruptions may occur after President Joe Biden suggested that American officials were \u201cdiscussing\u201d whether to support an Israeli attack on Iran\u2019s oil facilities.<\/p>

In other news around the world, traders are watching the US jobs report due to be released at 13:30 BST today. With inflation declining, the crucial parameter now is the job market. According to consensus estimates reported by Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to show 150,000 jobs were added last month up from 142,000 reported in August, while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2%.<\/p>

Traders are trying to forecast how aggressively the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts. In the above scenario, the Fed will probably cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, smaller than its half-point cut in September. In Asia, China\u2019s stimulus package announced recently, continued to support markets higher into Friday\u2019s trading, with the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closing the session 2% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also closed 0.2% higher this morning, following a volatile week of trading caused by central bank announcements.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Pound Rally Against US Dollar Continues ahead of Interest Rate Decisions.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The European markets as well as the FTSE 100 are on the rise today, as investors are focusing on key central bank decisions later in the week from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0and the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>

The US Federal Reserve is expected to move towards cutting interest rates more aggressively\u00a0as it meets today and tomorrow.<\/p>

A 25 basis-point reduction by the US Federal Reserve would be a pivotal move, as investors hope that the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth. A more aggressive 50 basis points cut on the other hand would be the biggest single rate cut in 16 years triggering concerns of economic trouble ahead.<\/p>

The likelihood of a 25 basis-point reduction fell to 37% from 50% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision this Thursday. The market expectations are leaning towards holding rates at their current level.<\/p>

The pound has rallied against the dollar ahead of these major interest rate decisions, with the US currency trading near its lowest levels of the year.<\/p>

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12th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Returning to Global Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk appetite has returned to the markets after the world\u2019s largest technology companies made a bounce on Wall Street on Wednesday.<\/p>

Europe\u2019s Stoxx 600 index advanced by 1.2% yesterday, the most single day jump since mid-August, while Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.2%, treasuries were steady, and the dollar remained flat.<\/p>

In Asia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed the most in a month, supported by gains in the technology sector. In Japan, the Nikkei index reversed its seven-day losing streak, while the yen declined from its strongest level against the dollar since December.<\/p>

Traders are still focusing on interest rate developments, with the FTSE 100 and European stocks joining the global rally today, advancing in early trade ahead of an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank.<\/p>

US inflation data for August supported the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but fueled speculation that the move will be gradual.<\/p>

Market sentiment has been characterised by optimism that the Fed will drive the US economy to a soft landing and fear that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut rates. Swaps have now priced in a 25-basis point rate reduction next week, however there is an argument over the path for further reductions.<\/p>

Oil continues its gains from Wednesday as Hurricane Francine destroyed key oil-producing zones in the Gulf of Mexico triggering bearish bets, while Gold is still trading above $2,515 per ounce.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Global Stocks Tumble as Flight from Risk Continues<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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4th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A global flight from risk assets continues on Wednesday due to fears around the US economy and a sharp decline in US stocks especially in the big tech sector on Tuesday after the labour day holiday weekend.<\/p>

Traders are fearing additional swings, looking for clues on whether the US economy is threatened by a recession, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s next adjustments to its monetary policy.<\/p>

A US job openings report expected today will indicate whether there is further cooling in the labor market, marking a 5th<\/sup> consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. The market is shifting its focus from inflation to concerns over economic growth, causing turmoil in stocks and other risk assets.<\/p>

Traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing its policy in September by reducing rates by more than two full percentage points over the next 12 months, this is the steepest drop since the 1980s outside of a downturn. Furthermore, payrolls data is due on Friday and will be crucial in defining the magnitude of the initial rate cut.<\/p>

In currencies, the dollar snapped a five-day winning streak whilst the yen extended its gains.<\/p>

Oil dropped further after crashing to the lowest level this year, with Brent futures falling to around $73 a barrel due to growing concerns that weak demand and restored supplies from OPEC will create a new surplus.<\/p>

Gold futures are hovering above $2,515 per ounce, down from their all-time high last month but still up almost 22% year to date. The precious metal remains the traders\u2019 favourite hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, gaining additional support from expected Fed rate cuts later this month and ongoing EM central bank buying. Traders are pricing in a 31% probability of a 50-basis point cut instead of 25 basis points according to the CME FedWatch – CME Group<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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5 June 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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ECB Goes Loose as Global Trade Remains Uncertain<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Accommodative stance – The ECB’s eighth consecutive interest rate cut, down to 2%, signals an aggressive push to boost the bloc\u2019s economy amid lingering fallout from Trump’s trade war. With inflation now below the ECB\u2019s 2% target and core component showing signs of softening, the central bank is acting to ensure monetary conditions remain supportive. The cut had been anticipated by markets, but it underscores a broader shift toward policy easing as the ECB contends with external pressures, particularly from deteriorating global trade conditions and slower growth. Investors responded to the downward revision for 2026 growth with modest optimism and confidence that the ECB will remain accommodative. Expectations are now forming around a potential pause in July, and markets are likely to remain sensitive to future data releases, particularly if inflation pressures unexpectedly resurface or Trump\u2019s trade rhetoric escalates further.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jobs catalyst – U.S. stock indices edge higher as investors await the key non-farm payrolls report, in order to assess how Donald Trump’s trade policies are impacting the job market and the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate outlook. While the central bank is expected to hold rates steady this month, markets are pricing in at least two cuts by year-end. Despite Trump’s repeated calls for lower rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, preferring to wait for more economic clarity amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, Washington’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have taken effect, with the threat of broader levies in July. Investors are now closely monitoring trade talks, particularly a potential call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n

Supply expansion – Oil prices declined amid growing signs that Saudi Arabia is pushing for another increase in output, reinforcing market concerns over a potential supply glut in the second half of the year. The proposed increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day underscores a strategic shift toward defending market share rather than prioritising price stability. This comes as the kingdom aims to capitalise on seasonal peak demand during summer months. However, such a move also heightens risks of oversupply, especially with inventories already showing signs of building and global demand forecasts remaining vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainties. A more aggressive supply expansion may exacerbate downward pressure on prices. Compounding the bearish sentiment, Saudi Aramco\u2019s price cut to Asia, though smaller than anticipated, signals weakening demand in key import markets. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fiscal Strains Boost Bitcoin At Expense of Commodities<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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New high – Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high above $111,000 on Thursday, extending its 2025 bull run even as U.S. equity markets pulled back. The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to defy broader risk-off sentiment, driven by accelerating institutional inflows and growing regulatory clarity. Momentum has also been bolstered by progress on the regulatory front. The GENIUS Act \u2013 a bill designed to provide a framework for stablecoin regulation \u2013 cleared a key procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate this week. Market participants and crypto advocates view it as a positive step toward removing uncertainty in the digital asset space. With regulatory tailwinds, strong inflows, and sustained institutional confidence, bitcoin’s rise is increasingly being seen not just as speculative mania, but as a maturing asset class solidifying its role in the financial system.<\/p>

Output hike – Oil prices fell, pressured by expectations of increased output from major producers and rising concerns about global demand amid U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The sell-off was triggered by reports from Bloomberg that OPEC+ is considering a third consecutive production hike, with one proposal involving a July increase of 411,000 barrels per day \u2013 triple the group’s previously planned rise. The potential supply boost comes as oil markets already grapple with subdued demand signals, amplifying downside risks. In parallel, investors are growing uneasy over mounting U.S. debt. A tax-cut and spending bill through Congress have added to fears about fiscal sustainability, shaking broader market confidence. All eyes now turn to OPEC+\u2019s June 1 meeting for clarity on the cartel\u2019s next move.<\/p>

Critical juncture – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax-and-spending bill by a single vote, enacting much of Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda while intensifying fears over the nation\u2019s ballooning debt. The legislation is projected to add $3.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. Markets reacted with mixed signals. U.S. stock futures edged higher after the bill\u2019s passage, but Treasury yields climbed, reflecting investor anxiety about government borrowing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar faced fresh selling pressure as global confidence in American fiscal discipline continues to erode, aggravated by Trump\u2019s unpredictable tariff policy and mounting international skepticism toward the stability of U.S. assets. As political divisions deepen and long-term fiscal reform remains elusive, the market sees the U.S. finding itself at a critical juncture.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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15 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Uncertainty Reigns as Geopolitical Talks Unfold<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed optimism – Bitcoin traded higher helped by renewed institutional flows back into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The rebound in ETF activity came as inflation worries eased and trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of de-escalation. Lower-than-expected CPI helped bolster risk appetite and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be able to cut interest rates later this year. Despite the improved backdrop, market uncertainty, especially over global trade dynamics, continues to cap gains. Traders are expected to watch Friday\u2019s producer price data and Fed commentary closely for further cues.<\/p>

Fragile peace – Ukraine and Russia may hold long-awaited talks in Turkey today, but uncertainty shrouds the summit amid conflicting signals and a lack of high-level participation. Despite calling for the talks himself, Russian President Putin will not be attending. Ukrainian President Zelensky has said he will make a final decision on whether to attend after meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. US President Trump, who had signalled openness to adjusting his Middle East visit to join the summit, will also be absent. With global pressure mounting, both US and European leaders have warned that Moscow faces fresh sanctions if it fails to engage seriously and agree to a ceasefire.<\/span><\/p>

Supply concern – Oil prices fell amid rising expectations of a US-Iran nuclear agreement that could lead to sanctions relief and increased Iranian oil exports. President Trump signalled that a deal was \u201cvery close,\u201d with Tehran having \u201csort of\u201d agreed to the terms. An Iranian official also indicated willingness to proceed in exchange for sanctions relief, following four rounds of talks in Oman. Despite this diplomatic progress, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions targeting Iran\u2019s missile production and oil export networks, underscoring the fragile nature of the ongoing negotiations. Market sentiment was further pressured by a surprise rise in US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported a build of 3.5 million barrels last week, contrary to analyst expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw, fuelling concerns of oversupply.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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08 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Art of Deal Strikes Again<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Suspense deal – Gold prices slipped as optimism over a potential US-UK trade deal weighed on safe-haven demand. The move followed Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent agreement, with a press briefing scheduled for 2 p.m. GMT. The prospect of easing trade tensions has led investors to reduce gold exposure, favoring risk assets instead. Recent gains in gold, which recently hit record highs above $3,500\/oz, have largely been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive tariff rhetoric. However, the appetite for the metal appears to be softening as signs of diplomatic progress emerge. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar added further pressure, making gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Market sentiment remains cautious, though. While investor interest in gold remains historically elevated, demand from the jewellery sector has faltered, limiting upward momentum. Looking ahead, traders will watch for confirmation of the US-UK deal and any developments in US-China negotiations. If diplomacy gains traction, gold may trend lower in the near term, while a breakdown could trigger another spike in safe-haven flows.<\/p>

Timid recovery – Oil prices rebounded following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a forthcoming trade deal\u2014widely expected to be with the UK\u2014boosting market sentiment amid lingering concerns over global demand. The move offers a political win for Trump ahead of crucial US-China trade talks and has helped lift crude off recent lows sparked by tariffs and OPEC+ supply adjustments. While oil has faced downward pressure in recent weeks due to fears of a global slowdown and increased output from OPEC+ members, the prospect of a new trade agreement and falling US crude inventories is offering some near-term support with stockpiles dropping by 2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, partially offsetting Tuesday\u2019s bearish API report showing a 4.49 million barrel build.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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01 May 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Makes Return<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk on – Gold prices continued their decline midweek as investors scaled back safe-haven exposure amid renewed signs of US-China trade engagement. The pullback marks gold\u2019s third straight session of losses, driven by optimism that fresh talks could ease tariff tensions. Traders will be watching for confirmation of any formal dialogue between Washington and Beijing before the weekend. Furthermore, sentiment has been lifted by Trump’s executive orders easing auto tariff pressure and remarks pointing to possible deals with India, South Korea, and Japan. Looking ahead, with geopolitical risk premia unwinding and trade dialogue showing signs of progress, the precious metal may face further downside pressure near term. However, any breakdown in talks could quickly reverse the market mood.<\/p>

Tech support – Stronger-than-expected Q1 results from Microsoft and Meta lifted sentiment across the tech sector, offsetting concerns about a potential advertising slowdown linked to tariff uncertainty. Microsoft delivered robust earnings, with EPS of $3.46 on $70B in revenue, surpassing forecasts. Notably, Azure revenue rose on the back of AI demand, slightly above expectations. Commercial cloud revenue saw continued enterprise demand despite macro headwinds. Meta also outperformed, posting EPS of $6.43 and $42.3B in revenue, well above estimates. Guidance for Q2 revenue came in strong at $42.5B\u2013$45.5B, despite management acknowledging ongoing tariff-driven ad market concerns. The dual beats and solid outlooks from two Magnificent 7 heavyweights provided a tailwind for the Nasdaq index.<\/p>

New deal – The newly signed US-Ukraine agreement granting Washington a share of profits from Ukraine’s future mineral and energy sales reflects a shift toward longer-term strategic and economic cooperation. While not a formal security guarantee, the deal gives the US tangible stakes in Ukraine\u2019s post-war recovery and resource access, helping to justify continued US support amid political debates over aid. The deal may bolster sentiment in energy and mining equities tied to US interests, particularly those with exposure to lithium, rare earths, or natural gas. However, uncertainty around control of resource-rich territories and absence of binding security commitments could temper investor enthusiasm in the near term.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Central Banks Go Dovish Over Clouded Economic Outlook<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Grim outlook – Markets remain nervous as the U.S. central bank struck a cautious note about the growth outlook. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is caught between a rock and a hard place as tariffs are likely to stoke inflation. Speaking publicly for the first time since President Trump paused parts of his sweeping tariff plan, the Fed boss signalled a wait-and-see approach to interest rates, saying the Fed needs more clarity on the economy\u2019s trajectory. However, he warned that the ongoing trade turmoil could derail the central bank\u2019s inflation and employment goals. The uncertainty has bruised dollar-denominated assets across the board with the greenback slumping to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. U.S. stocks and bonds also have seen sharp outflows in recent weeks.<\/p>

Cloudy sky – The euro held steady as the ECB slashed interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its key deposit rate down to 2.25% as trade tensions rattle the eurozone\u2019s economic outlook. The move, widely expected by markets, follows growing uncertainty tied to U.S.-led tariff hikes that have roiled global commerce. In a stark policy statement, the central bank flagged “rising trade tensions” as a key driver of deteriorating growth prospects, with President Christine Lagarde warning of “exceptional uncertainty” ahead. Europe now faces a sharp uptick in U.S. tariffs\u2014climbing from 3% to roughly 13%\u2014creating what Lagarde called a \u201cnegative demand shock.\u201d While many tariffs have been paused, the lingering threat of escalation has cast a shadow over inflation expectations and economic momentum.<\/p>

Mounting pressure – While the week wraps early for commodities ahead of Good Friday, bullish drivers have outweighed bearish signals. Crude prices are set to notch a weekly gain, buoyed by fresh U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms trading Iranian oil. The move adds to mounting pressure on Tehran and raises the prospect of tighter global supply, especially as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to curb Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions through economic means. The International Energy Agency also added upward momentum by trimming its forecast for global supply growth. In its latest monthly report, the agency cut its forecast for this year by 260,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of just 1.2 million bpd. The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated output from the U.S. and Venezuela, adding to market concerns over tighter supplies amid rising geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Trade Policy Keeps Investors on Edge<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tariff Reloaded – Markets staged a dramatic rebound at Thursday\u2019s open after President Donald Trump made a surprise reversal on tariff policy, temporarily slashing new import duties to 10% for most U.S. trade partners over a 90-day period. The sharp pivot marked a stark contrast to his earlier hardline stance and triggered a powerful rally across Wall Street. The S&P 500 soared in its third-biggest one-day gain since World War II, the Dow posted its strongest advance since the COVID crash of March 2020, and the Nasdaq exploded in its second-best session ever. Despite the relief rally, trade tensions remain high. The reciprocal tariffs Trump had long threatened officially came into effect, targeting nearly 90 countries. China was notably excluded from the temporary reprieve, with tariffs on Chinese goods escalating sharply after Beijing announced fresh duties on U.S. imports. The European Union also hit back, approving its first wave of countermeasures in response to the earlier U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs, signalling that the global trade skirmish is far from over.<\/p>

Empire Strikes Back – The escalating showdown has rattled all asset classes, stoking fears of a growth slowdown, rising inflation, and squeezed corporate earnings. Amid the mounting uncertainty, gold has seen a sharp rally, as investors seek safety in traditional havens. China has fired back once again at President Donald Trump\u2019s escalating tariff offensive, announcing a steep increase in duties on U.S. imports. Starting April 10, tariffs on American goods entering China will soar to 84%, up from the previous 34%, according to the latest statement from the Office of the Tariff Commission. The move comes in direct response to Washington\u2019s own overnight hike, which pushed tariffs on Chinese goods past the 100% mark. This tit-for-tat trade war is rapidly deepening, threatening to paralyse commerce between the world\u2019s two largest economies.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>

OPEC Strains – Oil prices remain fragile even though OPEC’s production slipped in March, just ahead of a planned output increase, as key members faced disruptions and mounting geopolitical pressure. Nigeria scaled back deliveries to domestic refineries, notably the Dangote facility, leading to a decline that offset stronger export volumes. Meanwhile, renewed efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to choke off oil flows from Iran and Venezuela contributed to further production drops from those nations. In total, output from Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each fell by around 50,000 barrels per day. Despite this, Nigeria remains slightly above its OPEC+ production target, with Gabon identified as the bloc\u2019s least compliant member. The latest figures highlight the fragile balance within OPEC+ as it begins to cautiously unwind some of its recent cuts. The full impact of the planned production hike may ultimately hinge on the success of Washington\u2019s push to curtail supplies from Tehran and Caracas.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets in Turmoil Amid Escalating Trade War<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Asian and European markets suffered a major blow as the fallout from President Donald Trump\u2019s sweeping tariff announcements triggered a global sell-off. In Asia, Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index experienced a historic crash, while Taiwan\u2019s TAIEX tumbled to an all-time low in a dramatic market rout. The chaos spilled into Europe, where the UK\u2019s FTSE 100 opened sharply lower and Germany\u2019s DAX endured a full-blown bloodbath at the open. Although European markets have since clawed back some losses, volatility remains high as investors brace for more turbulence amid the escalating trade showdown.<\/span><\/p>

US futures are pointing to a rough start on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 expected to open down, reflecting deepening investor unease. Meanwhile, Brent Crude prices have slumped to their lowest level since April 2021, underscoring growing concerns over global demand. Even cryptocurrencies, often touted as alternatives to traditional finance, have been swept up in the turmoil. In a sell-off as widespread and intense as this, few risk assets are managing to escape the fallout unscathed.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 April 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Geopolitical and Trade Escalations Fuel Market Jitters<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Military Standoff – The U.S. is stepping up its military presence in the Middle East, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sending in extra warplanes for an ongoing bombing campaign in Yemen. The move adds more fuel to the fire in Washington\u2019s standoff with Iran, as Trump continues to push for nuclear negotiations\u2014using both tariffs and military threats as leverage. Over the weekend, Trump warned Tehran that more strikes (and even more tariffs) could be on the way if talks don\u2019t move forward. Iran, however, isn\u2019t budging. In a firm response via Oman, Tehran made it clear that it won\u2019t negotiate under pressure. With both sides digging in, tensions remain sky-high. Unless some behind-the-scenes diplomacy works its magic, we could be looking at more economic and military maneuvers, which would keep markets\u2014and the energy sector\u2014on edge.<\/p>

Trade Turmoil – Wednesday\u2019s much-anticipated tariff announcement couldn\u2019t come at a trickier time for the markets. Stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride for weeks, thanks to ever-changing trade policy chatter, and investors are still feeling pretty jittery. Unfortunately, it doesn\u2019t look like this latest move will do much to calm nerves. In fact, things might get even messier\u2014China, Japan, and South Korea are reportedly teaming up to hit back at Trump\u2019s tariff push. A coordinated counterstrike from these economic heavyweights could mean an extended trade skirmish, potentially tangling up supply chains and putting a damper on global growth. As traders sift through the details of this two-step tariff plan, all eyes will be on possible exemptions and any hints of a diplomatic breakthrough. And let\u2019s not forget the Fed\u2014already juggling economic curveballs, officials may have yet another headache if rising import costs start stoking inflation concerns.<\/span><\/p>

Oil Balancing – OPEC turned down the oil tap a little in March, trimming production by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it tried to keep supply in check before ramping things up again in May. According to Bloomberg\u2019s latest survey, the group\u2019s total output now stands at 27.43 million bpd, with members being reminded to stick to their quotas. This cut is all part of OPEC\u2019s ongoing effort to keep oil markets steady and prices supported, despite unpredictable demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still set to move forward with its planned production hikes, adding 138,000 bpd in May after a similar bump in April. As usual, traders will be keeping a close eye on OPEC\u2019s next moves, since oil price stability remains a delicate balancing act\u2014especially with geopolitical uncertainty and shifting demand trends in the mix.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Move on After Dovish Fed Decision<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Stay safe – The gold market remains in the upward direction, hovering near recent highs as the Federal Reserve maintains a neutral monetary policy stance\u2014despite raising its inflation outlook and trimming its growth forecast. As widely expected, the Fed held interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. However, policymakers provided little forward guidance, leaving markets guessing about the timing of future rate moves. The updated dot plot projections remained unchanged from December, showing rates ending the year at 3.9%, with further declines to 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. While the central bank appears in no rush to cut rates, it is adopting a more measured approach toward its balance sheet\u2014adding another layer of complexity to the market\u2019s outlook.<\/span><\/p>

Stake high – Geopolitical stakes remain high in Ukraine with renewed airstrikes escalating tensions and fueling market uncertainty. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilian sites, including hospitals, while suggesting that Putin has effectively dismissed a comprehensive ceasefire. The renewed hostilities come after Putin\u2019s recent conversation with former U.S. President Donald Trump, in which the Russian leader reportedly conditioned any ceasefire on the cessation of Western military aid to Ukraine. With no immediate resolution in sight, geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk factor for global markets, potentially triggering further volatility in energy prices, equities, and safe-haven assets.<\/p>

Caution ahead – The US dollar saw little bid after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and reaffirmed its projection for two rate cuts in 2024. While the central bank revised its economic outlook, some analysts interpreted the announcement as dovish, reinforcing expectations for eventual easing. Risk assets bounced back following the Fed\u2019s commitment to rate cuts, with equities gaining traction as investor sentiment improved. However, the greenback faced renewed pressure, reflecting shifting rate expectations. The updated forecasts indicate that policymakers remain cautious, aiming to balance inflation risks with economic stability, leaving markets closely watching the timing of the first rate cut.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Choose Flight to Safety<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Hold still – The British pound remains supported ahead of the Bank of England\u2019s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on 20 March, where policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.50%. The central bank had previously cut rates by 25 basis points in February, but rising geopolitical risks and tightening global financial conditions have reinforced expectations of a pause. The impact of US trade policies, particularly Trump\u2019s tariff measures, has already pushed UK bond yields higher, contributing to a stronger pound. While domestic economic indicators remain mixed, the BoE appears reluctant to continue easing in an environment where external shocks could sustain inflationary pressures. Markets will be watching for any forward guidance that could shape expectations for the BoE\u2019s next policy move, which is likely to influence sterling\u2019s trajectory in the near term.<\/span><\/p>

Hard hit – Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off this week as investors repriced risk in response to growing concerns over US economic stability. Even President Trump\u2019s economic team has acknowledged potential turbulence ahead, a shift that has fuelled risk aversion across asset classes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4%, while the S&P 500 extended its recent losses. The Nasdaq Composite suffered the most significant decline, plunging 4.5%. The tech sector led the decline, with the “Magnificent Seven” stocks driving the sell-off. The pullback reflects broader macroeconomic uncertainty, compounded by Trump\u2019s aggressive trade policies. The US-Mexico-Canada trade negotiations remain unresolved, keeping markets on edge as investors assess potential tariff impacts on corporate earnings and economic growth.<\/p>

New high – Gold prices have staged a strong recovery, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid ongoing market volatility and geopolitical risks. Despite a slight cooling in inflation pressures, the latest US CPI data failed to alleviate broader recession fears. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, below expectations of 0.3% and down from 0.5% in January. Although gold experienced a sharp decline at the end of February\u2014dropping over $130 to touch $2,833\u2014technical support at key moving averages provided a floor for prices, leading to a swift rebound above $2,900. This resilience suggests that bullish sentiment remains intact, with market participants continuing to hedge against economic uncertainty.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 March 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Retreat as Geopolitics Takes Over Monetary Policy<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Rally on hold – Markets are on edge as investors weigh the fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs on major US trading partners. The new measures\u201425% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a sharp increase in China duties to 20%\u2014went into effect on Tuesday. Canada wasted no time hitting back with its own round of immediate tariffs on US imports, while China responded with a 15% levy on American farm products like chicken and pork, set to take effect on March 10. However, Beijing’s relatively measured response left some analysts speculating that there\u2019s still room for negotiation with Washington. With trade tensions heating up, investors are bracing for potential market turbulence in the days ahead. The S&P 500 has tanked to its November lows just above the 5700 mark. Any major escalation in the trade spat could spark a deeper correction in the coming weeks.<\/span><\/p>

Geopolitical chessboard – Gold prices are taking a breather as traders lock in some profits after a strong recovery earlier this week. The price action is seemingly trying to hold onto its bullish momentum. Fundamental-wise, safe-haven demand continues to underpin gold, fuelled by rising geopolitical tensions and a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar index this week. Adding to the global economic mix, China\u2019s National People’s Congress kicked off its annual session by reaffirming its 5% growth target for 2025, most likely as a defiant signal to Mr Trump\u2019s aggressive foreign policy. On the eastern front, Trump claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had expressed gratitude for U.S. support and signalled a willingness to sign a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine\u2019s mineral rights. Mixed statements such as this add yet another layer of complexity to the ongoing geopolitical chess match.<\/span><\/p>

Swift comeback – The euro flexed its muscles against most major currencies after the European Central Bank\u2019s latest interest rate move. As expected, the central bank trimmed rates by 25 basis points. But what really caught the market\u2019s attention was Christine Lagarde\u2019s tone during the press conference. Rather than signaling a dovish pivot, the ECB president struck a more hawkish note, stressing that future rate cuts would depend on incoming data. That cautious stance gave the euro a solid lift, as traders recalibrated their expectations for her next moves. Adding fuel to the rally, the euro is also buoyed by optimism over Europe’s growth following Germany’s proposal for a massive \u20ac500 billion infrastructure fund. The plan is seen as a potential counterweight to global trade tensions, offering a boost to the region\u2019s economic outlook. The bullish news compound the bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar which stumbled across the board, dragged down by mounting concerns over the impact of tariffs on inflation and broader economic growth.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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28 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Markets Jitters as Trump Goes Against Rest of the World<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Cautious approach – Markets are gaining confidence as investors digest Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings, which reassured them about AI growth despite initial concerns over DeepSeek and weakening demand. While the company\u2019s profit outlook initially sparked some hesitation on Wall Street, Nvidia\u2019s stock rebounded after an early dip. At the same time, traders are closely watching President Trump\u2019s latest tariff threats, which have added to existing economic jitters. On Wednesday, he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on the European Union and reinstate paused duties on Canada and Mexico. However, the lack of clear details left markets guessing about the timeline and potential impact. The S&P 500 is trying to squeeze out modest gains the latest session, in an attempt to end its five-day streak of losses.<\/span><\/p>

Bouncing back – The euro-dollar exchange rate has pulled back to its mid-February lows around 1.0400 as the US Dollar remains strong amid a risk-off mood. Still, caution might be warranted as the remarkable strength of the US dollar in recent months has been challenged by a string of underwhelming economic reports\u2014ranging from a dip in consumer confidence to sluggish retail sales and weak consumer sentiment\u2014has shaken markets and fuelled concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors are now weighing whether these signals point to a temporary slowdown or a more persistent challenge ahead. Nevertheless, the greenback could benefit from erratic tariff decisions by Donald Trump against European and Japanese imports, making it the least vulnerable of the majors out there.<\/span><\/p>

Wild ride – Bitcoin\u2019s wild ride in its 6-figure valuation took a sharp turn downward as the digital gold plunged to its lowest level since November, dragging the broader crypto market down with it and erasing nearly half a trillion dollars in value. After soaring past $108,000 last month\u2014coinciding with Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration and his self-proclaimed status as the \u201cBitcoin President\u201d\u2014BTC is struggling to stay above $85,000. The selloff has been partly linked to growing investor frustration over Trump\u2019s unfulfilled promises nearly a month into his term, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. On a more technical level, expiring bitcoin options sitting in crypto exchanges, worth an estimated $3.9 billion, could expire out of the money, as most positions were set at higher price levels, further exacerbating market volatility. The crypto market also took another hit after a massive hack on the Bybit platform, described as the \u201cbiggest digital heist ever.\u201d Hackers managed to steal around $1.5 billion by gaining control of an Ethereum wallet on the Dubai-based exchange. The shock of the breach, combined with Bitcoin\u2019s price collapse, has sent ripples through the industry, intensifying concerns over security vulnerabilities and regulatory scrutiny.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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21 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Unfettered Risk Appetite Keeps Brewing<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Safe bet – Sustained demand for gold keeps the chart trajectory upward as investors weigh monetary policy against geopolitical winds. Hawkish FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period. This could discourage traders from making new bets, creating a headwind for the non-yielding metal. However, a renewed decline in US Treasury bond yields is keeping dollar bulls on the back foot, providing further support for gold prices. More importantly, the broader fundamentals still favour an upward trend for bullion, keeping the metal\u2019s two-month rally intact. Gold’s bullish momentum is fuelled by concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could spark a global trade war, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal.<\/span><\/p>

Tables turned – The S&P 500 is inching up in a timid manner as market participants fret that a peace talk between the US and Russia without Ukraine could signal a dramatic shift in US foreign policy. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Donald Trump reached new heights after the latter took to social media to mock Zelensky, calling him a \u201cdictator without elections.\u201d Zelensky fired back, accusing Trump of falling for Russian disinformation regarding the war in Ukraine. The heated exchange followed a controversial meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war\u2014without Ukraine at the table. After the meeting, Trump suggested Ukraine had initiated the conflict, prompting a swift and sharp rebuttal from Zelensky. The rhetoric highlights the risk of the US pulling the plug on Kyiv\u2019s war effort, alienating its European allies in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Still hodling – Bitcoin continues to defy concerns from the Federal Reserve\u2019s latest meeting minutes, which signalled officials remain hesitant to cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed pointed to trade policies under the Trump administration as a potential obstacle to controlling inflation. Despite this cautious stance, Bitcoin continued its rally, holding steady as investors shrugged off rate uncertainty and focused on the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market. Bitcoin’s price tends to move in tandem with interest rate expectations because lower rates mean more liquidity in the market, making speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Added uncertainty from the Ukraine geopolitical twist might have convinced more investors to pour into the digital gold.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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14 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Ukraine Optimism Offsets Trade Worries<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Inflation still hot – The much-anticipated U.S. inflation figure came out hotter than expected, throwing a wrench into hopes for near-term rate cuts. January\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.9%. The \u201ccore\u201d CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in even stronger at 3.3% versus the anticipated 3.1%\u2014marking the hottest inflation reading in months. These numbers bolster the case for monetary policy hawks who argue the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee, reiterating that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, prioritising the fight against inflation. However, President Trump took to social media, pushing back and insisting the U.S. needs lower interest rates.\u00a0<\/span>The U.S. dollar index initially spiked on the inflation report but later gave up gains to trade lower. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.65% following the data, keeping limited support to the greenback.<\/span><\/p>

Stabilisation factor – The oil price slump gained momentum as President Donald Trump took his first major step toward brokering an end to Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine, just weeks after his inauguration. Trump took to social media to announce that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to start negotiations immediately, adding that he would be calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to inform him of the conversation. A potential ceasefire could further weigh on oil prices if Trump pushes to roll back sanctions on Russia\u2019s energy sector. On a more fundamental level, the market\u2019s depressed sentiment has been fuelled by rising U.S. crude stockpiles and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling that the Fed isn\u2019t rushing to cut interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity and weaken oil demand.<\/span><\/p>

Steady climb – Wall Street reacted to the latest American CPI data with a knee-jerk selloff, but S&P 500 has found support and is still consolidating near its recent highs. A key factor? Reports that President Trump had a “productive” phone call with Russian President Putin about ending the Russia-Ukraine war, offering investors a glimmer of optimism, which would offset concerns with rising global trade tension, notably with the new administration\u2019s reciprocal tariffs. On the corporate side, the fourth-quarter earnings season rolls on. So far, more than 69% of S&P 500 companies have already released their results, and the majority are delivering pleasant surprises\u2014over 75% have topped Wall Street\u2019s forecasts, according to FactSet.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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7 February 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trade Spat Casts Shadow Over Sentiment<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Record high – Gold prices surged to yet another all-time high in this week\u2019s trading, driven by strong safe-haven demand as investors flock to the yellow metal amid rising uncertainty. Market nerves remain on edge as President Trump\u2019s unpredictable and potentially disruptive policy moves keep traders guessing. Meanwhile, China-U.S. trade tensions are heating up, with both nations escalating tariffs and taking further hostile business actions against each other this week. The EU may not be spared either after Trump doubled down on his plan to hike tariffs on the block, adding another layer of uncertainty to global trade dynamics. Experts fret that this \u201celevated trade policy uncertainty\u201d could drag on economic growth in the coming months, primarily by dampening business investment and weakening market confidence. Goldman Sachs has warned that the eurozone economy could suffer a \u201csizable hit to activity\u201d from the rise in trade tensions. With geopolitical and economic uncertainty mounting, gold continues its record-breaking rally, proving once again that when uncertainty reigns, gold shines.<\/p>

Mixed feelings – U.S. stocks have recouped their recent losses as they strive to hold onto this year\u2019s limited gains. While earnings from Alphabet and AMD fell short of expectations, Big Tech found support thanks to a strong rally in Nvidia. Alphabet\u2019s stock took a hit, sliding nearly 7%, after its fourth-quarter cloud revenue came in below estimates. The shortfall raised concerns that the company’s aggressive AI investments may take longer than expected to pay off. However, Nvidia emerged as a winner, climbing more than 5% as investors bet that the chipmaker could benefit from the ongoing AI spending spree. Overall, a retreat of the 10-year Treasury yield to its lowest level since December 2024 further added support to the market\u2019s rebound.<\/span><\/p>

Sluggish demand – Crude oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels of the year as fears of weakening demand rattled investors. The drop comes after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crude oil imports, while U.S. stockpiles climbed for the second straight week. WTI crude hit its lowest point since December 31, 2024, as tensions between the top two consumers escalated. With China\u2014the world\u2019s largest oil importer\u2014facing economic headwinds, concerns are mounting over a potential slowdown in global energy demand. On Tuesday, China\u2019s State Council Tariff Commission announced a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), along with a 10% duty on American crude oil, farm equipment, and certain vehicles, set to take effect next week. Meanwhile, fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude inventories, reinforcing fears of weakening demand and adding further pressure to oil markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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31 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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AI Race and Safe Haven in Tandem<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Tech correction – US tech stocks stabilised after plunging on Monday due to the sudden rise of Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) app DeepSeek. The open source solution sent chipmaker Nvidia into a nosedive, triggering a broader selloff across the market. The turbulence followed DeepSeek\u2019s claim that its AI model was developed at a fraction of the cost of its competitors, prompting investors to rapidly reassess their bets on AI and the ROI on the costly infrastructure, and casting uncertainty over America\u2019s AI dominance. President Donald Trump called the moment \u201ca wake-up call\u201d for the US tech industry while downplaying concerns over the breakthrough, affirming that the US will remain a leading force in AI. For traders following the price action, unless the Nasdaq sinks below its 2-month lows around 20600 the index is merely consolidating near its historic high. The market\u2019s eventual resilience would prove the optimism surrounding AI investments that has fuelled much of the US stock market\u2019s surge over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>

ECB easing – The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its fifth rate cut on Thursday, trimming interest rates by 25 basis points as it walks a tightrope between rising inflation and sluggish growth. After months of cooling, inflation in the eurozone is heating up again, hitting 2.4% in December – its third straight increase – just as the effects of cheaper energy start to fade. At the same time, the region\u2019s economy is stuck in neutral. Fresh data showed zero growth in the final quarter of 2024, falling short of economists\u2019 modest 0.1% forecast and following a 0.4% expansion in the previous quarter. Commenting on the latest move, ECB President Christine Lagarde didn\u2019t sugarcoat the situation, admitting that the euro area economy is \u201cset to remain weak in the near term.\u201d In other words, while inflation is picking up, growth is taking a nap – leaving the ECB with the tricky job of keeping both in check. FX-wise, the single currency is far from being out of the woods as the US Fed stayed put with its interest rates unchanged, broadening the differential between the two economic entities.<\/span><\/p>

Shining again – Gold is back on its feet after dragging its feet for the past three months. The price has surged to a new all-time fuelled by strong safe-haven demand and technical buying. Investor jitters over the new US administration\u2019s trade and foreign policies – especially the potential for fresh tariffs – are keeping the marketplace on edge. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting on Wednesday with a clear signal: interest rates are staying unchanged for the foreseeable future. Policymakers acknowledged that \u201cinflation remains somewhat elevated,\u201d but Chair Jerome Powell downplayed any shift in stance, brushing off the change in wording as mere \u201clanguage clean-up.\u201d Powell steered clear of commenting on how President Trump\u2019s policies might influence the Fed\u2019s decisions. Markets, in turn, took the Fed\u2019s statement and Powell\u2019s press conference in stride, showing little reaction.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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24 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trump 2.0 May Complicate Fed Policy Course<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Technical recovery – The euro\u2019s current rebound is likely to be due to profit-taking after it hit a 26-month low earlier this year. General sentiment remains downbeat as the ECB keeps pushing in the loosening direction while the Fed is taking their feet off the pedal. President Christine Lagarde and other senior officials expressed support for additional rate cuts, potentially weakening the shared currency in the short term. Markets have already priced in another 25bp cut next Thursday, the fifth of the easing cycle, with expectations that interest rates will drop to 2% by year-end. Adding insult to injury would be the looming U.S. tariffs championed by Trump 2.0 elevating the risk of higher inflation in a fragile economy. Despite Lagarde\u2019s reassurance that the central bank is \u201cnot overly concerned\u201d about external factors, the market always finds a way to play in a cynical and pragmatic way and may keep the lid on the exchange rate.<\/p>

Verbal escalation – Gold is surfing on renewed geopolitical tensions following Mr Trump\u2019s inauguration. Stakes in the eastern front have been raised as the new U.S. president looks to boast his \u2018art of the deal\u2019 by settling the war in Ukraine in a swift manner. He delivered on his own social media platform Truth Social this week an ultimatum to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin saying that Russia should strike a deal or face even tougher economic consequences. Warnings of extending sanctions on all Russian exports to the United States and secondary penalties for nations conducting business with Moscow may push the latter to a corner if a deal fails to materialise, exacerbating the divide between the East and the West. The precious metal\u2019s solid run lately in spite of the dollar\u2019s strength signals growing demand for its safe haven status.<\/span><\/p>

Clash of the titans – The U.S. dollar has given back its recent gains as traders await a new catalyst from the central bank\u2019s interest rate decision next week. To spice things up, Powell & Co\u2019s cautious stance puts the Federal Reserve on a potential collision course with the new assertive president. Donald Trump has increased pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs in a significant manner. As far as the market is concerned, the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25-4.5% next week, in the wake of three consecutive cuts since September. However, policymakers have adopted a more conservative approach for the year especially as Mr Trump\u2019s plans to raise tariffs, cut taxes, and tighten immigration policies could complicate efforts to lower inflation to the 2% target.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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10 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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UK Worries Weigh on Cable<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mini crisis – The pound has plunged to its lowest level in over a year, while UK borrowing costs have reached a 16-year high. The latest bond market sell-off reflects investors\u2019 growing concerns over UK assets and most importantly the contrasting signal between higher gilt yields and a falling currency shows investors\u2019 doubt over the country\u2019s economic outlook and the health of its public finances. The market turmoil has added pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who faces increasing scrutiny, made an uncommon move by issuing a public statement for the second consecutive night, emphasising her \u201ciron grip\u201d on public finances. But despite government efforts to stabilise the markets, borrowing costs continue to climb. Addressing an urgent question in the House of Commons, Treasury Minister Darren Jones assured there was “no need for an emergency intervention” in financial markets. However, market participants still have the memory of the mini-budget crisis under the former prime minister Liz Truss in September 2022.<\/p>

Seasonal demand – Brent crude is staging a steady recovery to its 3-month high as the market demand has shifted its focus to colder weather than the last two winters, in both Europe and the United States, which could boost consumption of heating oil. A stronger U.S. dollar and an unexpected rise in U.S. stockpiles have not deterred buyers from shying away, with technical buying-the-dips compounding the seasonal factor. There are high hopes that the recent weak CPI print in China would spur more stimulus to tackle the country\u2019s chronic economic headache. In the meantime, a surge in travel across China ahead of the Lunar New Year has improved demand expectations, adding to rationales that would help the price stabilise in the near term.<\/p>

Bullish consolidation – The December U.S. jobs report was a blowout for the outgoing administration with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The print was a confirmation that would lessen the worry about the impact of high interest rates on the job market. While the market participants await further rejuvenation of the economy under Trump 2.0, the earnings season is kicking off next week with Q4 and full-year results from Wall Street\u2019s big banks. Investors anticipate impressive numbers as trading volumes have significantly exceeded typical fourth-quarter levels across all asset classes, fuelled by a growing participation from retail traders amid a bull run in both stock and cryptocurrency markets.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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3 January 2025<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Investors Remain Confident about U.S. Growth<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Parity in sight – The market is waiting for fresh catalysts in the first week of 2025 and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls might just give participants enough a reason to stay alert. A strong reading could be the straw that broke the euro\u2019s back as the single currency is inching towards the parity threshold, last seen in November 2022. The market consensus is that Trump\u2019s policies will sustain support for the greenback, as tax reliefs will put upward pressure on inflation and make further interest rate cuts less easy to justify, while tariffs against the eurozone would be seen as rubbing salt in the wound, undermining its growth outlook.\u00a0<\/p>

Steady recovery – Gold is striving for a comeback after it stabilised around its recent low of $2,600. The precious metal gains strength thanks to its safe-haven appeal, as investors turn their attention to President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s upcoming administration, set to begin on January 20. Anticipated policies from Trump, including higher import tariffs and lower taxes, are expected to benefit gold. More specifically, elevated tariffs could spark a global trade war, while reduced taxes may increase inflationary pressures in the United States. Gold often thrives in times of economic uncertainty as a safer asset and performs well during periods of rising inflation, as investors use it to hedge against price increases. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields fall to approximately 4.5%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, enhancing their attractiveness.<\/p>

Hesitant start – Stocks began January with a volatile trading session as investors locked in profits from notable 2024 winners like Apple and Tesla. The much-anticipated \u201cSanta Claus\u201d rally, which typically boosts stocks during the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, failed to materialize as the market preferred the certainty of gains other than the promise of higher watermarks, leaving the S&P 500 with four straight days of losses into the year\u2019s end\u2014its first such streak since 1966. Still there is high hope that the rally will stay put as pro-growth and inflationary policies in the U.S. may keep fuelling the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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20 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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U.S. Fed Pours Cold Water Before Christmas<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Renewed pressure – The euro is hovering near its 4-week low as traders price in a potential acceleration in the interest rate differential across the Atlantic. The ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place after its U.S. counterpart adopted a hawkish stance in the last meeting. In the meantime, inflation in the eurozone has become steady though not subdued with the November reading coming in below expectations at 2.2%. The market expects the central bank to stay the course on reducing borrowing costs in an effort to stimulate growth. While the Fed might hold back from another increase in January 2025, the ECB is expected to reduce interest rates at every meeting until June 2025, leaving the single currency struggle against other majors.<\/span><\/p>

Bullion dilemma – On the one hand, the prospect of lower global interest rates would make the non-yielding metal more appealing by lowering the cost of opportunity. On the other, a relatively strong U.S. economy and an unusually hawkish Fed might keep Treasury yields high, leaving gold in the shadows. How far the retracement may go would reflect bids on the mighty dollar as its recovery across the board so far has put the precious metal under pressure. The price action is consolidating as liquidity starts to dry out going into Christmas, but it would be too soon to call for a bearish reversal.<\/span><\/p>

Close call – Stock markets saw sharp pullbacks after the Federal Reserve commented on a \u2018closer call\u2019 on its loosening policy. As widely anticipated, the U.S. central bank lowered its key interest rate this Wednesday by 25 basis points, the third consecutive cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, back to the level where it was in December 2022. However, policymakers struck a cautionary note on their next move. Inflation has been holding steadily above target against the backdrop of uncertain economic growth on a global macro level, prompting the Fed to slow down on its monetary easing path, with indications that there probably would be only two small cuts in 2025. The decision has given risk assets such as tech stocks which have been front-running the yield curve a reason to take a breather, sending the S&P and Nasdaq indices off their recent peaks.<\/span><\/p>

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13 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Anticipating Another U.S. Rate Cut<\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar recovery – The U.S. dollar is bouncing back across the board as traders reposition ahead of the last Federal Reverse rate decision of the year. The market overwhelmingly anticipates an additional 25-basis-point rate cut in the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. However the persistence of sticky inflation might put the brakes on the pace of future rate cuts, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England might trim their respective rates faster in the face of stalling economies. The prospect of this differential could prove particularly beneficial for the greenback.\u00a0<\/p>

Gold consolidation – Bullion has pulled back from its 3-week high as the market digests a crucial regime change in the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad dynasty last weekend left a void in an increasingly turbulent region and exposed Iran, its former ally, prompting traders to ponder major stakeholders\u2019, namely the U.S. and Russia and their proxies\u2019 next move on the geopolitical chessboard. As a result, heightened uncertainty may keep safe haven seekers busy as the new year could reserve additional surprises. In the meantime, news of physical buying by the People\u2019s Bank of China may offer further support.<\/span><\/p>

S&P high watermark – The U.S. index is still holding on to its all-time high as investors bet on a downward trajectory of the interest rates. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October’s 2.6% annual increase, but in line with economists’ forecasts. Participants in the rally have so far shrugged off economists\u2019 view of Trump’s proposed policies\u2014such as imposing high tariffs on imports, cutting corporate taxes, and restricting immigration\u2014as potentially inflationary. The optimism may live on as long as evidence shows a lack of an upside surprise in inflation data.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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06 December 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Mixed Job Report Sends U.S. Dollar into Retreat<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dollar pullback – The latest U.S. job data showed a rise of the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% in November. The greenback has been pulling back as traders braced for the last nonfarm payrolls of the year. Before the report, the market had priced in a 70% chance of a rate cut on December 18, but that probability has now climbed to 87%. The prevailing sentiment is that Fed officials are already inclined toward a rate cut, and it would take a much stronger report to change their stance. The market now expects 90 basis points of easing next year, up from the previous expectation of 82 basis points, offering fragile support to the dollar in the process.<\/span><\/p>

Oil stabilisation – WTI crude steadied around its 3-month low after the OPEC+ group which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia postponed its planned production increase amid sluggish global demand, notably due to China\u2019s economic struggle and competition from non-member producers like Brazil and Argentina. The recent lows also corresponds to the trough seen in December 2021, indicating the market\u2019s concern about the lingering supply and demand imbalance. Market participants may look to thread the needle with their year\u2019s end positioning as the price walks on thin ice.<\/span><\/p>

Trump effect – Bitcoin’s value soared past the $100,000 mark after Trump announced plans to nominate former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commissioner Paul Atkins to lead the regulatory body. Atkins is widely regarded as more cryptocurrency friendly than the incumbent Gary Gensler. The president-elect had earlier vowed to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital” and his celebration on social media with messages like “Congratulations Bitcoiners” and “You’re welcome!” would draw more public attention to the digital asset. Traders have started to bag some profits but sentiment supported by the trend remains overwhelmingly positive.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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29 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Final Push as Markets Look to Regain Volatility<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Calm before volatility –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Trading volumes have thinned around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday this week but market lethargy may give place to renewed volatility in a busy data-driven week. Investors are likely to take advantage of the last nonfarm payrolls on Friday and reallocate their books before going into the Christmas holiday season. Until then weak tech earnings and the Nvidia sell-off could continue to be the theme that has been driving major U.S. indices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Oil uncertainty –<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>Oil prices stabilise as traders look for signals from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on the 1st of December. The market widely expects production cuts from January. However, artificial restraints on supply may not suffice to lift depressed prices in the current environment. Global fundamentals remain uncertain at best as bidders may be reluctant to hold large positions into the new year with American protectionism looming as Trump is scheduled to retake the reins.<\/span><\/p>

Lost shine –\u00a0<\/span>Gold remains under pressure weighed down by the recent recovery of the U.S. dollar across the board. Meanwhile physical investments in China, the precious metal’s No.1 consumer country, have tanked amid growing economic uncertainty and geopolitical friction with the West. The price is hovering above the $2600 mark and trying to find support and now the question is whether bullion\u2019s safe haven status would bring in more inflows in the weeks leading to the year\u2019s end.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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22 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Market Confidence Fuels Tech and Digital Assets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Arms race – Russia missile strikes on Ukraine in response to the use of Western made missiles by its neighbour have triggered another round of escalation in the 1000-day conflict. What worries traders is whether this could open doors for more unprecedented events in the months to come. Safe haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen have held their ground and found renewed interests as market participants look to hedge their risk appetite.<\/p>\n

Under pressure – US indices are holding onto their gains as investors anticipate a 25 basis point cut by the Fed at its December meeting. High watermarks in US equities reflect the market\u2019s confidence in its economy, offering better yields in a lower interest rate environment as well as safety backed by the American government. Individual stocks have found a boost from bright quarterly results from the likes of Nvidia, furthering cementing the confidence, so much that even the news of a possible breakup of Alphabet, parent of Google by the US Department of Justice have left the market unfazed.<\/p>\n

To the moon – Bitcoin continues to stay well-supported as it pushes its way to the landmark $100,000. Fundamentally, expectations of a more friendly business environment with an end to scrutiny from US regulators, growing popularity in bitcoin ETFs as well as escalations in geopolitical events bringing in more flows are major tailwinds for the digital asset. Technically, the question is who dares to say \u2018this is good enough\u2019 and put their money where their mouth is by taking the other side of the trade. Until then the momentum may stay strong.<\/p>\n

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15 November 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Assets Push Forward as Trump Secures both Houses<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dream team momentum -The market is on its toes as President-elect Donald Trump taps into personal ties to shape the next government. His comeback may have a large impact as a mix of tax cuts, immigration control and trade tariffs could go through with the blessing of a Republican-controlled Congress. The US dollar\u2019s strength and overall volatility can barely hide expectations of a dramatic shift in US policies.<\/p>

Euro\u2019s struggle. – Whispers of parity are back in the market, a reminiscence of the energy crisis back in 2022. This time around, investors fear that Mr Trump will be back to take care of his unfinished business with more tariffs. On the ECB\u2019s monetary policy, faster interest rate cuts than in the United States would put the single currency under further pressure.<\/p>

Crypto president – Bitcoin hitting an all-time high above $90,000 is a telltale sign that traders are embracing the upcoming US administration for the best, and potentially the worst. The crypto industry is betting on a friendlier regime to trigger a broader adoption, leading up to another round of bull market. Meanwhile, outperformance by digital gold compared to altcoins may suggest traders\u2019 hedging of possible escalation in geopolitical disputes.<\/p>

Tech optimism – Stock market sentiment remains risk-on as a lower interest rate environment compounds the prospect of Republicans\u2019 laissez-faire agenda with tax cuts and looser regulations. Options players are piling into riskier assets notably the technology sector which they believe could reap a massive windfall from Trump\u2019s victory, supporting the current rally.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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07 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The Day After: Global Market Reactions to Trump\u2019s Victory<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Donald Trump’s confirmation as the next US president has boosted stocks and assets that are seen as favourable to his administration.\u00a0 His agenda is set to bolster traditional industries such as construction, infrastructure, and energy. The policies announced by Donald Trump during his campaign were generally seen as inflationary,\u00a0due to tariffs\u00a0and onshoring, pro-growth, and as adding to the already burgeoning federal deficit, thanks to proposed tax cuts. How these policies affect the economic backdrop is likely to be one key driver of US stock market returns in the next four years.<\/p>

In the US, stocks soared last night to record highs with the S&P 500 jumping 2.5% to close at 5,929.04, while the Dow Jones surged 3.6%, reaching 43,729.93. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite advanced 3% to 18,983.47. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.435% from 4.411% late on Tuesday.<\/p>

Stocks in Asia recovered from early losses after US stocks jumped to record levels as investors tried to assess the impact of Donald Trump\u2019s return to the White House on the global economy. The Hang Seng climbed 2% in Hong Kong, and the Shanghai Composite was 2.6% up by the end of the session.<\/p>

Meanwhile, the Chinese government reported that exports jumped nearly 13% in October compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than two years. However, the Nikkei slipped 0.3% on the day in Japan, reflecting worries over the potential for a revival of trade tensions under a Trump administration.<\/p>

The FTSE 100 and European stocks pushed higher in the Thursday early morning session as the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0(BoE) is\u00a0expected to cut interest rates again at noon. Money markets are strongly betting on a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut \u2014 that the benchmark rate will fall from its\u00a0current level of 5%\u00a0to 4.75%. It is the first announcement since the UK government unveiled their budget last week and comes as CPI\u00a0inflation\u00a0and\u00a0wage growth\u00a0continue to cool.<\/p>

Traders are now turning their attention to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England\u2019s decisions on interest rates later today. The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut interest rates again this evening by 25 basis points, amid a moderating inflation rate and a softening labour market.<\/p>

However, analysts have warned that it is the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and concerns that he might seek significant influence over the central banks\u2019 policy decisions, that will be the main driver in the global financial markets.<\/p>

The pound dived against the dollar, following Trump\u2019s\u00a0claimed victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election. The pound\u2019s decline marks a significant sell-off as traders brace for a shift in US economic policy under the prospect of a second Trump administration. Yesterday the US dollar surged to its largest single-day gain since March 2020, climbing 1.5% against a basket of major currencies.<\/p>

Gold prices were lower as investors moved away from the safe haven and into assets that could benefit under the new Trump administration, with spot gold currently trading lower at $2,665.00 per ounce. The drop in gold signals a broader market reaction to the US presidential election, which is dominating investor sentiment this week.<\/p>

The Fed\u2019s outlook to be announced later today, could also influence the direction of gold in the coming weeks, as rising rates tend to weigh on the precious metal.<\/p>

Oil markets were pressured by the results from the US elections and the latest weekly US oil inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, with Brent crude futures trading at $71.87 per barrel. Oil prices have shown a dip as markets prepare for the uncertain geopolitical landscape with Trump\u2019s victory.<\/p>

A new Trump administration would favour domestic fossil fuel producers as he aims to enhance America’s energy security. Approximately two thirds of the exchange-traded fund iShares Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (IOGP.AS) is held in US-listed assets. Trump is also likely to prioritise increased domestic oil and gas production.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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04 November 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Trading Trump (vs) Harris - Election Anxiety Spikes<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The FTSE 100 and European stocks are showing a mixed picture on Monday as traders anxiously await the outcome of the US presidential election, as well as a decision on\u00a0UK interest rates\u00a0from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0on Thursday, which is expected to make a quarter-point cut for the second time this cycle, taking UK interest rates to 4.75%.<\/p>

The U.S. election could bring unprecedented market swings across various asset classes and will shape the direction of the global financial markets and geopolitics for the next four years, with potential policy changes impacting stocks, commodities, forex, and other assets. Historically, election uncertainty has led to extreme volatility. During the 2020 election, financial markets experienced a $5 trillion fluctuation in market value in the weeks preceding and following the election: the VIX (Volatility Index) jumped by over 50%, and global markets experienced turbulence throughout the election cycle.<\/p>

Traders around the globe, are closely watching as Kamala Harris, running for the Democratic Party, races against leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. The outcome of the election will define the policies of the next administration which would have a tremendous impact on economic trends, international trade, and market stability.<\/p>

The outcome may not be clear on election night or even soon after if the results are close enough to trigger recounts or legal challenges.<\/p>

This volatility may present both risks and opportunities in the trading environment, therefore it would be prudent for traders to keep their trading accounts sufficiently funded in advance. This will allow them to manage margin requirements effectively, capitalise on potential opportunities, and mitigate any market risks.<\/p>

Potential Implications and Market Reactions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The race remains neck-and-neck as we approach tomorrow\u2019s vote, and investors have been positioning for the fallout of a victory by Donald Trump.<\/p>

In the US, Trump would likely shake up the status quo far more significantly than Harris, who has served as President Joe Biden\u2019s vice president for the past four years.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s focus on fiscal expansion and tariffs which would is expected to trigger higher inflation and would have a strong influence in Treasury and FX markets, as well as risk-on in equity markets favouring US cyclicals. Tax cuts would also be expected as part of Trump\u2019s economic policy.<\/p>

In emerging markets, the main risk stems from Trump\u2019s plan to enact tariffs, which would weaken their exports and demand for their currencies. Markets are pricing in some of the risks associated with Trump returning to the White House, suggesting that a Harris victory would trigger a bullish move for emerging markets, while factoring in the likely impact of higher taxes on earnings and reinforcement of wider macro forces.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s tariff plans carry particular risks for China for levies of 60% or more, which will increase pressure on the Chinese economy while the government is already struggling to revive the faltering economy.<\/p>

Asian currencies including the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won, may also come under pressure with tariff increases. The Yuan\u2019s one-month implied volatility soared to the highest in two years last month.<\/p>

Developing nations such as South Korea and Taiwan, with high exposure to the US and strong reliance on Chinese inputs could also face pressures from such an escalating trade war, as they would be affected by increased costs and supply-chain disruptions.<\/p>

Trump\u2019s statements on the US commitment to alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and to Ukraine\u2019s efforts to defeat Russia, have weighed on local bonds of certain eastern European countries and lifted Ukraine\u2019s dollar debt on speculation that Trump\u2019s election may push it to cut a ceasefire deal with Russia.<\/p>

What if the Result\u00a0is Contested?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

The counting of the votes may only be the start of a new process that financial markets will struggle to interpret.<\/p>

Markets are expected to be volatile not only on the night of the election, but potentially in the days or weeks to follow. Declarations and rumours around key swing states like Pennsylvania will be particularly important and algo-driven markets could be particularly sensitive to such risk.\u00a0<\/p>

The greatest risk for global markets to consider would be if the election result is bitterly contested afterwards by the \u2018losing\u2019 party. Because the polls remain so close, the election creates a great deal of uncertainty with traders trying to price for a binary outcome. Key policies, particularly around trade, tariffs and the outlook for the US debt, will be greatly affected by the outcome and so the results will drive price action.\u00a0<\/p>

The biggest uncertainty facing the market is if the result is contested. It took days to declare Biden officially the winner in the 2020 election, while Trump contested the result almost until the January inauguration. The highest risk is that neither side is willing to concede, leading to a high-stakes legal roller coaster, which could in theory last not days but weeks. This outcome has the largest potential for a negative risk catalyst in the global markets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Oil prices heading for their biggest weekly gains in over a year <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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04 October 2024 <\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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After a night of intense air strikes by Israel on Beirut, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in today\u2019s session. Oil prices posted their biggest one-day rise in almost a year, surging by more than 5%.<\/p>

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to around $77.90 a barrel. Weekly prices have experienced their biggest weekly percentage point gain since early 2023. Traders are concerned that potential supply disruptions may occur after President Joe Biden suggested that American officials were \u201cdiscussing\u201d whether to support an Israeli attack on Iran\u2019s oil facilities.<\/p>

In other news around the world, traders are watching the US jobs report due to be released at 13:30 BST today. With inflation declining, the crucial parameter now is the job market. According to consensus estimates reported by Bloomberg, the US economy is expected to show 150,000 jobs were added last month up from 142,000 reported in August, while the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.2%.<\/p>

Traders are trying to forecast how aggressively the Federal Reserve will proceed with interest rate cuts. In the above scenario, the Fed will probably cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its next meeting in November, smaller than its half-point cut in September. In Asia, China\u2019s stimulus package announced recently, continued to support markets higher into Friday\u2019s trading, with the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closing the session 2% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 also closed 0.2% higher this morning, following a volatile week of trading caused by central bank announcements.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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17th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Pound Rally Against US Dollar Continues ahead of Interest Rate Decisions.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The European markets as well as the FTSE 100 are on the rise today, as investors are focusing on key central bank decisions later in the week from the\u00a0Bank of England\u00a0and the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>

The US Federal Reserve is expected to move towards cutting interest rates more aggressively\u00a0as it meets today and tomorrow.<\/p>

A 25 basis-point reduction by the US Federal Reserve would be a pivotal move, as investors hope that the decision could lower borrowing costs for companies and improve overall earnings growth. A more aggressive 50 basis points cut on the other hand would be the biggest single rate cut in 16 years triggering concerns of economic trouble ahead.<\/p>

The likelihood of a 25 basis-point reduction fell to 37% from 50% at the end of last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision this Thursday. The market expectations are leaning towards holding rates at their current level.<\/p>

The pound has rallied against the dollar ahead of these major interest rate decisions, with the US currency trading near its lowest levels of the year.<\/p>

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12th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk Appetite Returning to Global Markets<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Risk appetite has returned to the markets after the world\u2019s largest technology companies made a bounce on Wall Street on Wednesday.<\/p>

Europe\u2019s Stoxx 600 index advanced by 1.2% yesterday, the most single day jump since mid-August, while Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.2%, treasuries were steady, and the dollar remained flat.<\/p>

In Asia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed the most in a month, supported by gains in the technology sector. In Japan, the Nikkei index reversed its seven-day losing streak, while the yen declined from its strongest level against the dollar since December.<\/p>

Traders are still focusing on interest rate developments, with the FTSE 100 and European stocks joining the global rally today, advancing in early trade ahead of an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank.<\/p>

US inflation data for August supported the expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but fueled speculation that the move will be gradual.<\/p>

Market sentiment has been characterised by optimism that the Fed will drive the US economy to a soft landing and fear that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut rates. Swaps have now priced in a 25-basis point rate reduction next week, however there is an argument over the path for further reductions.<\/p>

Oil continues its gains from Wednesday as Hurricane Francine destroyed key oil-producing zones in the Gulf of Mexico triggering bearish bets, while Gold is still trading above $2,515 per ounce.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Global Stocks Tumble as Flight from Risk Continues<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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4th September 2024<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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A global flight from risk assets continues on Wednesday due to fears around the US economy and a sharp decline in US stocks especially in the big tech sector on Tuesday after the labour day holiday weekend.<\/p>

Traders are fearing additional swings, looking for clues on whether the US economy is threatened by a recession, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s next adjustments to its monetary policy.<\/p>

A US job openings report expected today will indicate whether there is further cooling in the labor market, marking a 5th<\/sup> consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. The market is shifting its focus from inflation to concerns over economic growth, causing turmoil in stocks and other risk assets.<\/p>

Traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to start easing its policy in September by reducing rates by more than two full percentage points over the next 12 months, this is the steepest drop since the 1980s outside of a downturn. Furthermore, payrolls data is due on Friday and will be crucial in defining the magnitude of the initial rate cut.<\/p>

In currencies, the dollar snapped a five-day winning streak whilst the yen extended its gains.<\/p>

Oil dropped further after crashing to the lowest level this year, with Brent futures falling to around $73 a barrel due to growing concerns that weak demand and restored supplies from OPEC will create a new surplus.<\/p>

Gold futures are hovering above $2,515 per ounce, down from their all-time high last month but still up almost 22% year to date. The precious metal remains the traders\u2019 favourite hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, gaining additional support from expected Fed rate cuts later this month and ongoing EM central bank buying. Traders are pricing in a 31% probability of a 50-basis point cut instead of 25 basis points according to the CME FedWatch – CME Group<\/a>.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Powell\u2019s keynote address at Jackson Hole sets the tone for rate cuts<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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The recent statements by Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, in his keynote address at the Jackson Hole meeting on the August 23, signaled a potential shift in the central bank’s approach to monetary policy. The indication of a forthcoming reduction in interest rates reflects a response to the current economic indicators, such as the proximity of inflation rates to the Fed’s target and the uptick in unemployment figures. The balance between price stability and maximum employment is a delicate one, and the Fed’s dual mandate requires careful navigation of these economic waters. <\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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The Fed’s inclination towards easing monetary policy suggests a prioritisation of employment over inflation concerns, a stance that is underscored by the current labor market conditions. The rise in unemployment to 4.3% from a lower point earlier in the year is not trivial, and the Fed’s acknowledgment of this trend is telling of its current focus. The increase in the labor supply, as mentioned by Powell, indicates a complex labor market dynamic that is not solely driven by job cuts but also by more individuals entering the job market.<\/p>

Powell’s remarks about the ‘direction of travel’ being clear but the ‘pace of travel’ being uncertain encapsulate the current economic sentiment. The central bank’s cautious approach to adjusting policy, while recognising the need for action, reflects the uncertainties inherent in economic forecasting and policy implementation. The labor market cooling, as described by Powell, is a significant factor in the Fed’s policy considerations, as it seeks to avoid exacerbating any potential downturns in employment.<\/p>

The Fed’s stance on not welcoming further cooling in the labor market conditions, despite the rising unemployment rate, is indicative of its commitment to fostering a robust job market. This is in line with the broader goal of ensuring long-term economic stability and growth. The absence of immediate concerns about a recession from Powell’s perspective offers a somewhat reassuring note amidst the complexities of the current economic landscape.<\/p>

In summary, the Federal Reserve, under Powell’s chairmanship, appears to be preparing for a careful recalibration of its monetary policy in response to the evolving economic situation. The focus on maintaining employment levels while managing inflation reflects the intricate balance the Fed aims to achieve in its pursuit of economic stability and growth. As the next monetary-policy meeting approaches next month, all eyes will be on the Fed’s actions and their implications for the economy at large.<\/p>

The economic landscape, as outlined by Mr. Powell, reflects the intricate balance central banks worldwide strive to maintain. The pandemic’s onset brought forth challenges that tested traditional economic models, revealing the complexity of global supply chains and the unpredictability of consumer behavior. The Federal Reserve’s response, characterised by agility and informed by evolving data, underscores the dynamic nature of modern monetary policy. This adaptability is crucial in a world where economic conditions can shift rapidly, and policies must be responsive to these changes.<\/p>

The anticipation of a quarter-point reduction by the Fed, as inferred from bond-market pricing, suggests a cautious yet responsive approach to the current inflationary pressures. It’s a delicate maneuver, aiming to temper inflation without stifling economic growth. The investors’ expectations of about two more percentage points of cuts during the coming year indicate a belief in the Fed’s commitment to recalibrate its strategies in the face of persistent inflation.<\/p>

On other news around the globe, Japan’s nuanced inflation metrics tell a story of an economy grappling with its own unique set of challenges. The rise in the core-inflation rate to 2.7% in July from 2.6% in June. However, the drop in the “core-core” rate to 1.9%, from 2.2% which was the first time it fell below the Bank of Japan\u2019s 2% target since September 2022, paints a picture of an economy where external factors like food and energy significantly influence inflation. The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates last March for the first time in nearly two decades marks a pivotal shift, suggesting a move towards normalising monetary policy after 17 years of unprecedented stimulus measures.<\/p>

In essence, the economic narratives from the United States and Japan highlight the ongoing efforts of central banks to navigate the post-pandemic recovery. They must balance the need to support economic growth with the imperative to maintain price stability. The actions of the Fed and the Bank of Japan will continue to be closely watched as indicators of how central banks might approach policymaking in an era marked by rapid change and heightened uncertainty. The global economic community remains attentive to these developments, understanding that the decisions made in Washington and Tokyo have far-reaching implications. The path forward is one of cautious optimism, with a keen awareness of the lessons learned during the pandemic and a forward-looking stance ready to adapt to the ever-evolving economic landscape.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Latest Market Trading News 27th April 2026 Global markets ready for testing The three pillars of geopolitics, central banks, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":34,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"elementor_header_footer","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"no-sidebar","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"full-width-container","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"disabled","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1991","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1991"}],"version-history":[{"count":45,"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1991\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10568,"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1991\/revisions\/10568"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/34"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gmgmarkets.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}